Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6474)
2082 / 6474within 20% of actual (32%)
8025open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 14551

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-22@fashionnovainstagram46531150%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd8aa768a542fb580
2026-09-22@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1048916%✓ within band8106af0a8d1b5e12
2026-09-22@sephorainstagram6,4818,78426%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4addfc8208e0784e
2026-09-22@skincarebydrnassiftiktok315135133%✗ miss — over-called — early decay00dc53e01f09ac65
2026-09-22@frankiesbikinistiktok6,3673,97560%✗ miss — over-called — early decay38a99c559ccf1a93
2026-09-22@monsterjaminstagram1,10768162%✗ miss — over-called — early decay08608ad7877c7234
2026-09-22@makeupbymarioinstagram5,4746,41215%✓ within band1e23e3d271abe95d
2026-09-22@princesspollyinstagram38134211%✓ within bande0ddf3dc41571b00
2026-09-22@macrobabyinstagram161811%✓ within band63bd8661eba13e52
2026-09-22@themobbeautyinstagram2632868%✓ within band8a0b55aba5e66bea
2026-09-22@nyxcosmeticsinstagram8861,37336%✗ miss — under-called — late burst94c0cb3ec2ab58ca
2026-09-22@fashionnovainstagram8871,04715%✓ within band0ad4c2b8919260f3
2026-09-22@naircareinstagram273010%✓ within band46b2203833d17b81
2026-09-22@gfuelenergyinstagram957822%✗ miss — over-called — early decay959aaf52b80aa4d8
2026-09-22@gfuelenergyinstagram495816%✓ within bandca222c65c17384af
2026-09-22@sephorainstagram1,9471,67116%✓ within band987c1441999765c9
2026-09-22@kyliecosmeticsinstagram18,85921,12511%✓ within bandf31c45ab9ea7f685
2026-09-22@fentybeautyinstagram3,8873,12724%✗ miss — over-called — early decay390e7ce4c3701e75
2026-09-22@ipsyinstagram26945941%✗ miss — under-called — late burst05ce6c72ee560aa2
2026-09-22@japanlainstagram1,9342,0727%✓ within band3785bd8ab219b634
2026-09-22@chipotletiktok86,548125,60031%✗ miss — under-called — late burst23324211ec3f498a
2026-09-22@neweracaptiktok3,7433,32513%✓ within band984fe949c5625c45
2026-09-22@netflixinstagram13,67649,95173%✗ miss — under-called — late burst73af4ad2f1683d8b
2026-09-22@huluinstagram2,604128,39898%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8460f44eb9b2d4a1
2026-09-22@mountaindewinstagram80659236%✗ miss — over-called — early decay046d01e125ab0da7
2026-09-22@doritosinstagram32447932%✗ miss — under-called — late burst968a6768a5f71aec
2026-09-22@younglainstagram6,3793,92063%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc1045ab8c6891221
2026-09-22@littlespoontiktok56134961%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8cb0e4b84f2903fd
2026-09-22@nzxtinstagram72285916%✓ within band48a1b0e7e274c1bd
2026-09-22@joyluxincinstagram4,211812419%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9fdde73f011c11c5
2026-09-22@manlybandsinstagram261662%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5fec1239b5e521fc
2026-09-22@mountaindewtiktok13,63010,80026%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydc62134aa11742d6
2026-09-22@glossiertiktok1,7452,00213%✓ within band3547fecb6784412b
2026-09-22@huluinstagram2,56838,82693%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8313dee764482f42
2026-09-22@crumblinstagram7,6089,03216%✓ within banda50fc3dc7fc8416b
2026-09-22@netflixinstagram12,23810,44317%✓ within band5f7b36e5a76c3ee4
2026-09-22@mycurlproductsinstagram61762%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfff686a16ac906dd
2026-09-22@glossierinstagram56970319%✓ within band27dd5821dec82efd
2026-09-22@fentybeautyinstagram78,288153,71049%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7a6e9ee65ad8dffb
2026-09-22@urbanoutfittersinstagram30735213%✓ within band76c78fa741e13f3d
2026-09-22@littlespooninstagram44251114%✓ within band4b77edded2b0095e
2026-09-22@jluxlabelinstagram27436625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8feaa42282e17cee
2026-09-22@japanlainstagram54564916%✓ within band21a03e20679bc92c
2026-09-22@stevemaddeninstagram1,2671,07118%✓ within band8c4e9d911170f554
2026-09-22@abercrombieinstagram2,5292,23813%✓ within band443f1ca986bdd0d4
2026-09-22@glowrecipeinstagram9512,53662%✗ miss — under-called — late burstccea62c45ba21cec
2026-09-22@fashionnovainstagram40677448%✗ miss — under-called — late burste8174d087a58c26a
2026-09-22@drunkelephantinstagram23438439%✗ miss — under-called — late burst584c4c0973a0a5a6
2026-09-22@summerfridaysinstagram2,8493,56420%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbbc113db13b57a58
2026-09-22@rarebeautyinstagram37,54547,72821%✗ miss — under-called — late burst01ff9e62e4c2c52d
2026-09-22@elfcosmeticsinstagram10,33012,26616%✓ within bandd6529de2644b488b
2026-09-22@drinkolipopinstagram3921,50874%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3faa6e1d83f281f2
2026-09-22@josiemaraninstagram2542654%✓ within bandd3fe725e0096edd5
2026-09-22@innisfreeusainstagram21165568%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc983aa81f5e71e0b
2026-09-22@lysbeautyofficialinstagram22727216%✓ within band842a4cfeb5ec8aa8
2026-09-22@neomwellbeinginstagram13812114%✓ within band48797f833cbccd0b
2026-09-22@savagexfentyinstagram2,2642,4899%✓ within band1e43c32a28bd4660
2026-09-22@skincarebydrnassifinstagram3916476%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf7a8fa27ee291903
2026-09-22@mollyjewelryusinstagram7222,96476%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta9551c72e735c780
2026-09-22@jimmychooinstagram3,7274,37415%✓ within banddb560fb71ba3d030
2026-09-22@summerfridaysinstagram1,2451,64624%✗ miss — under-called — late burstafc87922c474da46
2026-09-22@lululemontiktok5,90817,30066%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd4529caad4b1860b
2026-09-22@fashionnovainstagram1,3102,35544%✗ miss — under-called — late burst288361886822c275
2026-09-22@maccosmeticsinstagram1,11191921%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7163ba639978ea1d
2026-09-22@duolingoinstagram62,81229,480113%✗ miss — over-called — early decay686fdee7b4d3d040
2026-09-22@mycurlproductsinstagram192420%✓ within bandc2a17f01b0ab6202
2026-09-22@macrobabyinstagram352169%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8407bd1508277275
2026-09-22@mindymaesmarketinstagram38380%✓ within band47982f8f6924f5aa
2026-09-22@rhodeinstagram28,95133,41813%✓ within band0066d9dbe43b51aa
2026-09-22@justfabonlineinstagram33547129%✗ miss — under-called — late burst107b1397db3f28c4
2026-09-22@netflixinstagram61,265232,55974%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc76791f46ce53685
2026-09-22@ipsyinstagram95896%✓ within banddb1beda14b0b8d32
2026-09-22@mynufaceinstagram332248%✗ miss — over-called — early decayeea10594070c34d0
2026-09-22@ogx_beautyinstagram503736%✗ miss — over-called — early decay731035c13c2db872
2026-09-22@marykayustiktok1,0561,34321%✗ miss — under-called — late burst253755e2141fba96
2026-09-22@theordinaryinstagram81693212%✓ within band4b1d2968f584f362
2026-09-22@mindymaesmarkettiktok33222647%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd183d30973ecb92b
2026-09-22@olaytiktok81395915%✓ within bandf572fb3701e53651
2026-09-22@livetintedinstagram26434223%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdaf678d9cfb37163
2026-09-22@vuoriclothinginstagram8,4766,80125%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3c179a44d3eeb57a
2026-09-22@skimsinstagram23,22040,69943%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3ac3b011863aeb2d
2026-09-22@marykayusinstagram57670819%✓ within bandd6d61d3277b06de3
2026-09-22@hudabeautytiktok115,705193,60040%✗ miss — under-called — late bursteba325158e3400ac
2026-09-22@netflixinstagram17,38333,82649%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbe65f20e11f23457
2026-09-22@fentybeautyinstagram4,0243,27023%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5d10511f4c412025
2026-09-22@alphaleteinstagram39256931%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0e58e830c7b0dfa4
2026-09-22@redbullinstagram29,48634,55015%✓ within band96d33d703fe0e989
2026-09-22@michaelkorsinstagram2,0591,9138%✓ within band8b54ae2c93b688f6
2026-09-22@monsterjaminstagram1,23998426%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2546df822bfef439
2026-09-22@maybellineinstagram6,85810,65936%✗ miss — under-called — late burste7271c4a47e33ae7
2026-09-22@charlottetilburyinstagram2,63115,46183%✗ miss — under-called — late burst097b8b0b20cce5c3
2026-09-22@meshkiinstagram1,6291,92515%✓ within bandb3a36c12518cacf6
2026-09-22@lolasaratogainstagram4530%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdf9c5df16d580011
2026-09-22@memoparisofficialtiktok2,902903221%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9745336049166ae3
2026-09-22@huupeofficialinstagram20612170%✗ miss — over-called — early decay82d97a9fb98973ed
2026-09-22@fashionnovainstagram1,3571,10423%✗ miss — over-called — early decay74d5478bd81ff282
2026-09-22@themobbeautyinstagram554038%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4cc8bab4172815ef
2026-09-22@loftinstagram37256634%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0f5509421d3927ab
2026-09-22@sephorainstagram6,6087,31910%✓ within band8b4bea36002254dd
2026-09-22@louisvuittoninstagram25,05630,45318%✓ within band832d4aed97e2812d

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.