Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5622)
1731 / 5622within 20% of actual (31%)
7756open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 35% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13430

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-18@chewytiktok1,5061,3918%✓ within band4b713c8f6ac03097
2026-09-18@athleticbrewingtiktok2,4001,74138%✗ miss — over-called — early decay265047f8536422ce
2026-09-18@jimmychootiktok1,7784,51661%✗ miss — under-called — late burst280269f3e77ed28b
2026-09-18@huluinstagram39,09623,15469%✗ miss — over-called — early decay13e21d984d1b6b43
2026-09-18@johnscrazysocksinstagram9210513%✓ within band829957f969cd1199
2026-09-18@michaelkorsinstagram1,6401,7074%✓ within band8a795dc8af75092d
2026-09-18@celsiusofficialtiktok2,2741,71533%✗ miss — over-called — early decay181fbf34f57cc574
2026-09-18@marykayusinstagram6266605%✓ within band27a5789ff53c0731
2026-09-18@jockofuelinstagram1131049%✓ within bandac810e28d3a6ed27
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram4284231%✓ within band60975939975de119
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram1361249%✓ within bandd437621db7fa324d
2026-09-18@jimmychooinstagram1,2332,21544%✗ miss — under-called — late burst19707f2020932fb9
2026-09-18@redbullinstagram217,670348,75838%✗ miss — under-called — late burst495d18cb6e0091f4
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram11715826%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1c6611863d91cc8d
2026-09-18@maisonkitsuneinstagram29426113%✓ within bandd1e85553a7b0ed22
2026-09-18@charlottetilburyinstagram4,4884,5932%✓ within band294925e696779095
2026-09-18@macrobabyinstagram191087%✗ miss — over-called — early decay670acb03c66a69ea
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram1,6611,5318%✓ within band774c947839d00b7a
2026-09-18@andotherstoriesinstagram20016025%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydd34b277a99e81af
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram74,10652,26242%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye7b50b6aab9d7040
2026-09-18@maisondesabreinstagram01,446100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst70eb04c6224bd5fb
2026-09-18@lolasaratogainstagram795934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9cb826af74607402
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram1,1761,92939%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8eb5950509ba7b09
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram204,100139,52946%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd917f294030654f4
2026-09-18@monsterjaminstagram1,4381,3189%✓ within bandf0e210342fc3f394
2026-09-18@starbucksinstagram169,444150,35213%✓ within band7e234988dc20635a
2026-09-18@neweracapinstagram2,1941,60237%✗ miss — over-called — early decay911c5867844a1915
2026-09-18@laloinstagram10114832%✗ miss — under-called — late burst183ed68b21fe7e91
2026-09-18@monsterjaminstagram62776118%✓ within bandae734140bf1580d5
2026-09-18@redbullinstagram70,975164,99257%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7f7dc3d8290fd068
2026-09-18@skimsinstagram3,1083,81018%✓ within band9405ae4fe7895ed4
2026-09-18@duolingoinstagram6,3164,02857%✗ miss — over-called — early decay34b7388e0a2ea6c1
2026-09-18@maseratiinstagram15,50723,44834%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30891534656f1725
2026-09-18@abercrombieinstagram71462115%✓ within banda5f45274a7bff47b
2026-09-18@hotmiamistylesinstagram69769%✓ within band0e1d644ba1af70ce
2026-09-18@innisfreeusainstagram9731069%✗ miss — under-called — late burstffae8c1c35658d70
2026-09-18@humnutritioninstagram172530%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3d137cf92baed947
2026-09-18@hudabeautyinstagram3,5545,22032%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7fb367c337d3b35f
2026-09-18@loftinstagram15213314%✓ within bandce072e7f59cf5980
2026-09-18@mackweldontiktok43227358%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaf1a19f395decff1
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram40,00037,0438%✓ within band6ceedfce271a177e
2026-09-18@lucidmotorstiktok2,2381,89018%✓ within band9875576bba09d4f7
2026-09-18@shopluluavetiktok1,7881,18850%✗ miss — over-called — early decay65ca4531e41f5619
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram3893598%✓ within band5b96accc3054cab0
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram5415573%✓ within band06e0b5144fe27584
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram3,8954,2609%✓ within band01116c785199b1ca
2026-09-18@nordstrominstagram1,3021,3765%✓ within band0c714b5a720650f2
2026-09-18@huluinstagram20,20817,68614%✓ within band2c8e8de8263c46a3
2026-09-18@huluinstagram29,87626,84211%✓ within band55eb8484d5df65ff
2026-09-18@impactmouthguardsinstagram214554%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ce9b60231b28639
2026-09-18@hotmiamistylestiktok6125717%✓ within band03cfedf506a1c7d4
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram37145018%✓ within band5897c9596a9dbf1a
2026-09-18@mysmileinstagram153455%✗ miss — under-called — late burst00843050a3d9cc15
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram11914819%✓ within band6fbb32c297945fdb
2026-09-18@huupeofficialinstagram6901,09837%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f63eb2f7d4a92b1
2026-09-18@jluxlabelinstagram21944951%✗ miss — under-called — late burst271a1158fc486233
2026-09-18@ediktedinstagram28956048%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb445e2c4b84bc632
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram12,31226,95854%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7f06289f721cb5a8
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram53077031%✗ miss — under-called — late burste27e50e4bece4eae
2026-09-18@stevemaddeninstagram2642847%✓ within band963d951f4149a562
2026-09-18@nordstrominstagram28031010%✓ within band34917b9e28a85e0c
2026-09-18@lovingtanofficialinstagram0833100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf91da600b8034195
2026-09-18@naircareinstagram253732%✗ miss — under-called — late burst28291decf783e438
2026-09-18@mysmileinstagram662%✓ within band0fe50538d32c23fb
2026-09-18@revolveinstagram21728825%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc7c8e58efa78c5b8
2026-09-18@rarebeautyinstagram179,984178,7081%✓ within band81459c49103d26b9
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram1,8773,08439%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7e3c949eaef27f7e
2026-09-18@ediktedinstagram55272023%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd50d1ca01effdcba
2026-09-18@casetifyinstagram55838744%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfa4de6800a9303a0
2026-09-18@huluinstagram46,55743,4777%✓ within band6bbe22ac6a302c51
2026-09-18@alphaleteinstagram3923930%✓ within band930cd676dca8ecc6
2026-09-18@younglainstagram6,0326,1973%✓ within bande58f4dcf183bb0e9
2026-09-18@lovingtanofficialinstagram36929127%✗ miss — over-called — early decay708f3e3036733172
2026-09-17@neutrogenatiktok31727117%✓ within band4d6a5bd7d41fd56c
2026-09-17@neutrogenatiktok24527912%✓ within band6ef3519783ab1882
2026-09-17@madhappytiktok2,256918146%✗ miss — over-called — early decay95375877b6ad4140
2026-09-17@celsiusofficialtiktok3,595450,20099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4cc43e4c30775595
2026-09-17@livetintedtiktok59830199%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3124780de7683eb4
2026-09-17@shopluluaveinstagram1421309%✓ within band16988c8e0d9aec58
2026-09-17@athleticbrewinginstagram17915813%✓ within bandad0d6eec3e24c17c
2026-09-17@eatmaxjerkyinstagram152335%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6643fad076a52d6e
2026-09-17@chipotleinstagram11,7615,643108%✗ miss — over-called — early decayeb5f442dfe0ced59
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram27,55441,82434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7995286948c59722
2026-09-17@elfcosmeticsinstagram8,67714,10838%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4f958713568c4cb
2026-09-17@jcatbeautyinstagram111212%✓ within band64998fb50740921f
2026-09-17@skimsinstagram5,1945,6268%✓ within band64c3aade792f046d
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram90353369%✗ miss — over-called — early decay952e0f035cc9f4a7
2026-09-17@ipsyinstagram1,5581,25524%✗ miss — over-called — early decayde459cb2514c344d
2026-09-17@charlottetilburyinstagram10,1998,98114%✓ within band2ad6fa96b963365b
2026-09-17@drunkelephantinstagram40328939%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc35c31fd792b9eef
2026-09-17@japanlainstagram40922483%✗ miss — over-called — early decay346274c72a550e93
2026-09-17@wendysinstagram8001,29238%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5492383460014973
2026-09-17@liquidivinstagram1248055%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2a53e4f9fcae953
2026-09-17@huluinstagram2,36615,16084%✗ miss — under-called — late burste0b8a78f74b14dfa
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram11,71710,35713%✓ within band6a9b10a897a70f89
2026-09-17@huupeofficialinstagram1981904%✓ within bandefdbd6082df56a27
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram1259729%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye75723b69e5c7980
2026-09-17@itjustworkswellnessinstagram4855%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd5799be8ba1d18e8
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram2302373%✓ within band03820e2e3aa6b95a
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram1,0321,57835%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta663d6a521b5c8d5

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.