Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5455)
1659 / 5455within 20% of actual (30%)
7688open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 36% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13199

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-17@glowrecipeinstagram9318687%✓ within band3fd049a9811adc15
2026-09-17@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,9011,36439%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye6151cc105d60a75
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram43260629%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfeb7054ca5a3e72a
2026-09-17@rhodeinstagram130,542152,22314%✓ within band303cdb5ef13e7bdb
2026-09-17@rarebeautyinstagram16,24313,23723%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9c671bf4b1ccbf4c
2026-09-17@vuoriclothinginstagram5474,76088%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3455c9915591acf8
2026-09-17@itsa10haircareinstagram6228122%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2c669b80139f242c
2026-09-17@maccosmeticsinstagram8,19214,82445%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta9b072722e06cbc6
2026-09-17@revolveinstagram4474746%✓ within band8ba092549f512bf1
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram1,02877133%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb39a469c2a450e2b
2026-09-17@lolasaratogainstagram66695%✓ within bandd063c9a09078abdd
2026-09-17@theordinaryinstagram79260531%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0560504a2a898842
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram17,02615,35411%✓ within banddb1b040a6a26d86c
2026-09-17@hudabeautyinstagram28,46835,82520%✗ miss — under-called — late burst742bbf4c172c194a
2026-09-17@milkmakeupinstagram48775936%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5c08e1733531ef46
2026-09-17@mollyjewelryusinstagram50134247%✗ miss — over-called — early decay919206b4ad7e5f67
2026-09-17@bandaidbrandinstagram20213%✓ within band8200bed98ba61fae
2026-09-17@longchampinstagram65749932%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5e9034a5b1a67aeb
2026-09-17@mayorgacoffeeinstagram312523%✗ miss — over-called — early decay80ed71f04f823e61
2026-09-17@mysmileinstagram111422%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaca0ceff403f530e
2026-09-17@maisonkitsunetiktok3,4791,328162%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd807bb805d31daab
2026-09-17@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,1061,33417%✓ within band2324c88b26eae96e
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram7477036%✓ within band96bca7fee9e2b34b
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram94,90251,38885%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2312b81ac9aa8349
2026-09-17@huupeofficialinstagram62031,97798%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd76cc55d5a1d8581
2026-09-17@abercrombieinstagram7,2637,5954%✓ within band4ba1ea465b2a3581
2026-09-17@frankiesbikinistiktok6,1172,166182%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5e3947879ecdc960
2026-09-17@memoparisofficialtiktok1,958872125%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye35803528891dc68
2026-09-17@jockofueltiktok5,0342,75383%✗ miss — over-called — early decay36c7c66865a0f48f
2026-09-17@jockofuelinstagram6,3475,9856%✓ within band7989336b2339db2f
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram2,1201,55736%✗ miss — over-called — early decay816b3efa14dc433c
2026-09-17@meshkiinstagram3,1362,44328%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3246186a54c2acb9
2026-09-17@redbullinstagram286,136342,48916%✓ within band8897cd3fe2671a70
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram62352020%✓ within band2e9055abcb8051d8
2026-09-17@casetifyinstagram2,5971,75848%✗ miss — over-called — early decayeee8d97a155d7875
2026-09-17@andotherstoriesinstagram37851527%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3292c4b28141d571
2026-09-17@jimmychooinstagram1,9322,15710%✓ within band2df02824615e5925
2026-09-17@jimmychooinstagram6,2068,53727%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0016288cabfb6720
2026-09-17@meshkiinstagram2,4401,50762%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya028d54df15fcd00
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram8963,68276%✗ miss — under-called — late burst36d13374e2d305a5
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram100,57751,41596%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb09e2e41411fda75
2026-09-17@nyxcosmeticsinstagram3,1472,02456%✗ miss — over-called — early decay925b7d52d25bb27c
2026-09-17@maccosmeticsinstagram2,4853,47829%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0872bea89f7fb734
2026-09-17@neweracapinstagram2,0493,10634%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ee0c1a48d583115
2026-09-17@starbucksinstagram315,457507,00538%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3feab646d9fb9348
2026-09-17@freepeopleinstagram1,40899841%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2336e18782336908
2026-09-17@impactmouthguardsinstagram27773280%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2d8dbb807656bd03
2026-09-17@longchampinstagram78259132%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybc65f5452f3446be
2026-09-17@littlespooninstagram47642213%✓ within band1e417912ebd1b075
2026-09-17@redbullinstagram19,76416,61819%✓ within band5c82d3ec77d5ac35
2026-09-17@moroccanoilinstagram1,3621,67219%✓ within band0dc738934d822940
2026-09-17@nyxcosmeticsinstagram4,4496,58832%✗ miss — under-called — late burst094bcd2dbe6d8972
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram15,94015,2554%✓ within bandb5681c1c1512aaa7
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram62046733%✗ miss — over-called — early decay49c5a57b8fa3a8cd
2026-09-17@luvmehairinstagram4771193%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta40324309b411f24
2026-09-17@urbanoutfittersinstagram3,6603,12517%✓ within bande15535ec162c91f0
2026-09-17@lovingtanofficialinstagram-1506100%✗ miss — under-called — late burste1daf3359f4d8aae
2026-09-17@monsterjamtiktok12,9557,40875%✗ miss — over-called — early decay86c584874cf3fb14
2026-09-17@myloralsinstagram27271%✓ within band96fee19cca1a2acf
2026-09-17@loftinstagram25317644%✗ miss — over-called — early decay62e15c8092daea90
2026-09-17@naircareinstagram6191,14546%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a4a4588d4eef4e3
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram1,3631,4486%✓ within band4fbd756d01117700
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram1,17087933%✗ miss — over-called — early decay184ea9f829dcf969
2026-09-17@nordstrominstagram51577333%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30452e8c8bce4fba
2026-09-17@crumbltiktok386,241221,40074%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf8f3aaf4c9c35e0a
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram7501,49750%✗ miss — under-called — late burste392cb08f6c13d45
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram59335666%✗ miss — over-called — early decay35da1526a6537a71
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram69846849%✗ miss — over-called — early decay476050aa5d69cb1a
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram60453214%✓ within band96bdee3efa42c588
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram57640941%✗ miss — over-called — early decay12514f76e9b421c6
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram69041865%✗ miss — over-called — early decay739f6d57807ce21e
2026-09-17@ediktedinstagram31857244%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4a1cacb963d8d97a
2026-09-17@monsterjamtiktok18,0407,120153%✗ miss — over-called — early decay50c7352c7d7bc4ce
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram5415685%✓ within band953b87a519fe79d6
2026-09-17@nordstrominstagram3113244%✓ within band986155891825d69d
2026-09-17@crumblinstagram52,60633,64056%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2a3d5896cd1c80bd
2026-09-17@ediktedinstagram8281,62949%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcf51fbf8bab58945
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram64933693%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3f4fe4f5e87a7125
2026-09-17@mollyjewelryusinstagram60549821%✗ miss — over-called — early decay173719d34bf6ce11
2026-09-17@michaelkorsinstagram1,2591,62222%✗ miss — under-called — late burst39fe622c8b0214f2
2026-09-17@mindymaesmarketinstagram26451348%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3b733912369fb215
2026-09-17@hotmiamistylesinstagram17320917%✓ within band4be7b3bb435288fe
2026-09-16@macrobabyinstagram4420122%✗ miss — over-called — early decayed628f34d9795244
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram1378365%✗ miss — over-called — early decay677b2f479e27e604
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram4524344%✓ within band14cfe3d021374ead
2026-09-16@lovingtanofficialinstagram-1999100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc93abb3effa4ad6e
2026-09-16@summerfridaysinstagram1,3452,34643%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5a713a2e95ff0690
2026-09-16@johnscrazysocksinstagram32637012%✓ within bandee54f92e08e7ac49
2026-09-16@huupeofficialinstagram667816%✓ within bandb0aad977bafcc47a
2026-09-16@japanlainstagram59150018%✓ within bandae724ec6cc68fe66
2026-09-16@meshkiinstagram1,8293,10541%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd914697f0a730463
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram4,7235,37212%✓ within bande4687b39ef888326
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram2,3583,97241%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdf7f290df74b3de4
2026-09-16@mzwallacenyctiktok94753876%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2b5ed7fd45de48de
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram8951,02012%✓ within band4e555d00b8aeb555
2026-09-16@sephorainstagram28,66826,3659%✓ within band8063c36ee31d417c
2026-09-16@jimmychootiktok7,42622,20066%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5c73e3393d29f832
2026-09-16@kyliecosmeticstiktok911,048680,70034%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8243ff98caf86134
2026-09-16@midinmodtiktok3240%✗ miss — over-called — early decay79c80f5818c7d2f1
2026-09-16@midinmodinstagram6455%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc986a2c8aeb8a639

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.