Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=4357)
1231 / 4357within 20% of actual (28%)
6400open bets resolving at 72h
172public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 38% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v2 · n_locked total: 10759

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-09@magicspooncerealinstagram484019%✓ within band448f3577541a0c8c
2026-09-09@sephorainstagram2,6666,78161%✗ miss — under-called — late burst510e34f912a3b55b
2026-09-09@skimsinstagram1,8531,51023%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9f77a48eb1f1b81d
2026-09-09@gfuelenergyinstagram1117156%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd3a80c284d9cb770
2026-09-09@gfuelenergyinstagram766124%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4efcdd233ead47f3
2026-09-09@mayorgacoffeeinstagram364112%✓ within bande33be7c17cb28198
2026-09-09@monsterjamtiktok25,11419,90026%✗ miss — over-called — early decayec3253f6f4325b5f
2026-09-09@andotherstoriesinstagram73393321%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7a4fdc9f7af0cc17
2026-09-09@younglainstagram4,0395,83431%✗ miss — under-called — late burst903e36f7339bf753
2026-09-09@louisvuittoninstagram12,60012,9523%✓ within bandb483b2f879b4422b
2026-09-09@mynufaceinstagram19219%✓ within band4a689fbd9de13d0a
2026-09-09@kyliecosmeticsinstagram13,57414,3085%✓ within banda834924ee3802640
2026-09-09@kyliecosmeticstiktok48,590150,50068%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2208e54d4104ce7b
2026-09-09@jimmychooinstagram1,1241,24910%✓ within band206aa5be576c7f19
2026-09-09@jluxlabelinstagram1091072%✓ within band685f359bcfcd31ba
2026-09-09@stevemaddentiktok5,8346,1816%✓ within bandc0e0339bfcbb515b
2026-09-09@rhodeinstagram316,254302,0785%✓ within bandeab36bcdec47fb3e
2026-09-09@innisfreeusainstagram1199131%✗ miss — over-called — early decay640118cbfc0ded22
2026-09-09@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,9771,59224%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc34a4934bcbe94e0
2026-09-09@glowrecipeinstagram41736514%✓ within band2ad170b5924c7ba5
2026-09-09@drinkolipopinstagram2,4532,01822%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycd6d9758fa979d47
2026-09-09@tower28beautyinstagram60968912%✓ within band3129c497438170ec
2026-09-09@skimsinstagram3,9673,53812%✓ within bandbcfd9004b09981dd
2026-09-09@chewyinstagram17643860%✗ miss — under-called — late burst453947b2dd971096
2026-09-09@rarebeautyinstagram23,41118,73725%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc5a1274567b996d1
2026-09-09@michaelkorsinstagram2,4672,4740%✓ within bandaf2d0552c833db46
2026-09-09@glossierinstagram4,8824,8511%✓ within bandf652705860d07c83
2026-09-09@itsa10haircareinstagram214755%✗ miss — under-called — late burste3f69034cda611d8
2026-09-09@nurturelifeinstagram101431%✗ miss — under-called — late burst052161f7eb652ad6
2026-09-09@neomwellbeinginstagram10517741%✗ miss — under-called — late burst055b1a726b95dcec
2026-09-09@shopmarissacollectionsinstagram12318333%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4287bfd9878fcac8
2026-09-09@urbanoutfittersinstagram1,06992316%✓ within band3fab6dd4be75cd07
2026-09-09@frankiesbikinisinstagram-11,651100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaaf3fdce97184f22
2026-09-09@milkmakeupinstagram9491,52938%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta5b69e880332f4d5
2026-09-09@nzxtinstagram4524836%✓ within band151d51a11ef5c21d
2026-09-09@tower28beautytiktok4,6923,49934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay86c13f7e0a4b1382
2026-09-09@jimmychootiktok4,5043,800,000100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst64634adb1bed907d
2026-09-09@makeupbymarioinstagram7,62215,34850%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdf43d057c1a6ca6e
2026-09-09@myloralsinstagram423714%✓ within band1463ee84219f2a83
2026-09-09@maseratiinstagram11,25910,07312%✓ within band390dc30f95cc630a
2026-09-09@lucidmotorstiktok1,882778142%✗ miss — over-called — early decay13c07f1aa32e3c22
2026-09-09@maybellineinstagram7,6057,6561%✓ within band0e5c5813bdef103d
2026-09-09@louisvuittontiktok28,28213,200114%✗ miss — over-called — early decay17601baf95c21e5a
2026-09-09@aloyogainstagram2,9524,53535%✗ miss — under-called — late burst325791390e50bcf9
2026-09-09@michaelkorsinstagram2,3431,74734%✗ miss — over-called — early decay06a1f2b81730e686
2026-09-09@longchampinstagram9238,26289%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb860ae52ace31323
2026-09-09@abercrombieinstagram1,6182,39132%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfdaaacae5f3b6f92
2026-09-09@moroccanoilinstagram10714426%✗ miss — under-called — late burst261e4feea4d4cebe
2026-09-09@casetifyinstagram65375514%✓ within bandcdbfebf3db6cb82e
2026-09-09@louisvuittoninstagram11,3569,30322%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5e9e0bc55cee6e0d
2026-09-09@littlespooninstagram1101019%✓ within band9219c62fa37ae8e8
2026-09-09@loftinstagram18322418%✓ within bandd0ab44ba7ec08c3f
2026-09-09@marykayusinstagram7021,31447%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8feb6c497065d6e5
2026-09-09@longchampinstagram8,62924,12264%✗ miss — under-called — late burstad9353f760c8f9ba
2026-09-09@charlottetilburyinstagram5,62510,33146%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ebc4d90ac3b0dd3
2026-09-09@memoparisofficialtiktok2,555868194%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye0fb28bae65746a1
2026-09-09@andotherstoriesinstagram3283096%✓ within band8d9070b239002c92
2026-09-09@impactmouthguardsinstagram253222%✗ miss — under-called — late burst15980dbba15541ba
2026-09-09@impactmouthguardsinstagram24895%✗ miss — under-called — late burst167105e662ecddbe
2026-09-09@marykayusinstagram59467412%✓ within band0d5d25e07dd788df
2026-09-09@garnierusatiktok2,5861,88737%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2227a529a8737b63
2026-09-09@gatoradetiktok1,6283,62055%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc5c3352c4a1306e8
2026-09-09@frankiesbikinisinstagram1,7031,91711%✓ within bandce88e5328fe5bc1b
2026-09-09@itsa10haircareinstagram9712623%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdef76c0c3d68ffcf
2026-09-09@mindymaesmarketinstagram675326%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8acba700c40823c7
2026-09-09@nzxtinstagram547830%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta7c07b041ec86051
2026-09-08@ipsyinstagram19624018%✓ within bandf3396774966c862e
2026-09-08@johnscrazysocksinstagram11614219%✓ within band9db30e80ee3b690e
2026-09-08@skincarebydrnassiftiktok493173185%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybce91c953ce930d5
2026-09-08@manlybandsinstagram393415%✓ within bande3f5c62092af03dc
2026-09-08@loftinstagram2102267%✓ within band910272ef9dd8e612
2026-09-08@macrobabyinstagram243122%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d466aa491bf20c5
2026-09-08@huupeofficialinstagram14119026%✗ miss — under-called — late burst25e7eea740fa3c07
2026-09-08@celsiusofficialtiktok453,515187,100142%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycfe1603ce4de8f3a
2026-09-08@crumblinstagram11,77718,60537%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd7b825ecbe947f98
2026-09-08@summerfridaysinstagram8,94511,15120%✓ within band0a9920ceb8602f87
2026-09-08@michaelkorsinstagram1,5471,33316%✓ within band329e91ca90a96034
2026-09-08@garnierusainstagram10418343%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1913fd184de294bf
2026-09-08@innosuppsinstagram4011365%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb008ee1c7b322119
2026-09-08@japanlainstagram36459739%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5388dca8722249ce
2026-09-08@skincarebydrnassifinstagram91952%✗ miss — under-called — late burst839ded88d7a1ba42
2026-09-08@gfuelenergyinstagram2783,12691%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e95b0e62d471f8b
2026-09-08@freepeopleinstagram3,6995,72235%✗ miss — under-called — late burst58818d962707586c
2026-09-08@hudabeautyinstagram11,70634,26366%✗ miss — under-called — late burst715b87a2c5732afd
2026-09-08@savagexfentyinstagram50164222%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb0245d95978e7992
2026-09-08@crumblinstagram4,6623,24544%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfe03993487568fbd
2026-09-08@urbanoutfittersinstagram35130017%✓ within band74a3ae75fe773367
2026-09-08@stevemaddeninstagram39966540%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbbfda7fc04064b3e
2026-09-08@mynufaceinstagram221549%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc2a75018376892f7
2026-09-08@jluxlabelinstagram23236436%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8b97b3fe44790b51
2026-09-08@ipsyinstagram1,0696,73584%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7455f21df3bfc29c
2026-09-08@glossierinstagram9,2888,9034%✓ within bandd1164fe6f24ec3b9
2026-09-08@naircareinstagram336347%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc7cf5c513abd9a88
2026-09-08@gymsharkinstagram23,26634,18332%✗ miss — under-called — late burst970d49723651e477
2026-09-08@chipotletiktok64,96557,60013%✓ within band445cdbc047c91b4d
2026-09-08@mountaindewtiktok24,13515,00061%✗ miss — over-called — early decayba29e13c3e1c85be
2026-09-08@alphaleteinstagram8929011%✓ within bandecda06c70259fb1a
2026-09-08@younglainstagram7,0957,0660%✓ within band78b94e4fbebca1a0
2026-09-08@joyluxincinstagram2,976775284%✗ miss — over-called — early decay99cb71515d626043
2026-09-08@louisvuittoninstagram13,40513,8553%✓ within bandb166f13b431a30be

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
2026-07-05 17:10@rarebeautyinstagram43,299resolves in ~0h34ed4ec29da2db30
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram2,097resolves in ~0h32d5716c943ca608
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram386resolves in ~0h4c3a73df07f73467
2026-07-05 21:53@princesspollyinstagram262resolves in ~0hb72a5c1b3d525773
2026-07-05 21:53@princesspollyinstagram421resolves in ~0h9c94e5eecf48e4f4
2026-07-05 21:53@skimsinstagram1,732resolves in ~0h760b3825df0a7f45
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.