Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6783)
2207 / 6783within 20% of actual (32%)
8287open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15116

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-24@wendysinstagram5,123217,72198%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30c4a36c20081810
2026-09-24@skincarebydrnassifinstagram161322%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6d263d1323a81ea1
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram8832,57266%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbd87e66fe0d3d78b
2026-09-24@ediktedinstagram65879818%✓ within band2ff36a98f898ebf1
2026-09-24@princesspollyinstagram29833511%✓ within band8e32f3cfc8e5b120
2026-09-24@nelliesfreerangeinstagram1208934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55fbef21aa13901b
2026-09-24@manlybandsinstagram171330%✗ miss — over-called — early decay74923f6f58eeb602
2026-09-24@madewellinstagram66854822%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye9dcd9e250994f20
2026-09-24@sephorainstagram1,9891,58925%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb37f752bbc3a0a9e
2026-09-24@lysbeautyofficialinstagram26393672%✗ miss — under-called — late burst25965b48f9fa079d
2026-09-24@josiemaraninstagram3213113%✓ within band1ce8bc64e76319e2
2026-09-24@charlottetilburytiktok23,10725,90011%✓ within bandacc30a9a42f624fe
2026-09-24@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,4424,53246%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta88ea1263e66b71c
2026-09-24@stevemaddentiktok3,83215,00074%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd15baffa58747ac8
2026-09-24@sephorainstagram4,9916,53924%✗ miss — under-called — late burst18caa6c3f8af8642
2026-09-24@manlybandsinstagram132853%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfba3dce3f81e82e1
2026-09-24@shopluluaveinstagram9936373%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbba13acfb296bbb7
2026-09-24@innosuppsinstagram12116%✓ within band527c5219438e8792
2026-09-24@nordstrominstagram2342361%✓ within band512c5327f0467d26
2026-09-24@ogx_beautyinstagram756418%✓ within band7a7b5f072e5186fe
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram6101,83467%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfa21b6616beb65da
2026-09-24@liquidivinstagram68860314%✓ within banddde79ad21f2bfece
2026-09-24@huluinstagram6,24018,27966%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta35562bd92bf0e25
2026-09-24@netflixinstagram30,72846,38034%✗ miss — under-called — late burst55883643a8ff001e
2026-09-24@gfuelenergyinstagram21418019%✓ within band8d160225a676303e
2026-09-24@fentybeautyinstagram4,2545,54223%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f25410ca4aee3aa
2026-09-24@revolveinstagram1,2221,48618%✓ within band54bd69e683460e60
2026-09-24@humnutritiontiktok258121113%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7cc280a85323288d
2026-09-24@gfuelenergyinstagram39235311%✓ within band960764fce7c92a81
2026-09-24@oldspicetiktok9,0757,00730%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc751155c9f8fd9a6
2026-09-24@japanlainstagram5495907%✓ within band541a7d03d903526c
2026-09-24@bandaidbrandinstagram272128%✗ miss — over-called — early decayabad8f6d6c834145
2026-09-24@itjustworkswellnesstiktok3349493%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf05f9bfcad0d65de
2026-09-24@ipsyinstagram1048720%✓ within banda073761105d6625b
2026-09-24@huluinstagram14,468244,94294%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb9b5a1e65c4a058e
2026-09-24@younglainstagram8,91210,07012%✓ within band3c0498443729aa8f
2026-09-24@jenisicecreamsinstagram4334242%✓ within bandd826e5ba908aef9b
2026-09-24@duolingoinstagram42,53996,72156%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ba1ac428a2f0be4
2026-09-24@innisfreeusatiktok6,16015,50060%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta63006928a5c2585
2026-09-24@michaelkorsinstagram8858781%✓ within bande0472f4b0d6ec361
2026-09-24@kyliecosmeticsinstagram6,6636,2537%✓ within bandf9d02751bfd9b985
2026-09-24@fentybeautyinstagram32,66182,11060%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd78567fbf9a2f0f9
2026-09-24@ghostlifestyleinstagram39122177%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7c1942cfd52f8162
2026-09-24@chewyinstagram13837563%✗ miss — under-called — late burste2c959f3b082db1e
2026-09-24@jockofueltiktok1,8871,33142%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a519f2941eb2c45
2026-09-24@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,9923,93449%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta0037b1a0d3a7c24
2026-09-24@drunkelephantinstagram14822233%✗ miss — under-called — late burstebbcb1e82cc30355
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram5512,94381%✗ miss — under-called — late burstca1d55c671bcc81f
2026-09-24@macrobabyinstagram473631%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8b0e4644b151f90d
2026-09-24@netflixinstagram25,89040,32036%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0371db87a6452c94
2026-09-24@jcatbeautyinstagram484215%✓ within bandcde4e83a79f6812e
2026-09-24@gymsharkinstagram11,28919,70743%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta09d39376f62d680
2026-09-24@doritosinstagram33027022%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4b1b3009c2b9770b
2026-09-24@luvmehairinstagram1,723517,434100%✗ miss — under-called — late burste659c1565e8d1f8d
2026-09-24@myloralsinstagram123466%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c3028925b74e5c9
2026-09-24@neomwellbeinginstagram19715428%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf426f6178f6af1c6
2026-09-24@mollyjewelryusinstagram2462316%✓ within band5fe021434fd7825f
2026-09-24@japanlainstagram16622526%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6a6ee282f910401a
2026-09-24@josiemaraninstagram1701634%✓ within band480947c0a83f26ac
2026-09-24@revolveinstagram36260740%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3e6cc7dd4939e0ad
2026-09-24@mynufaceinstagram17171%✓ within banda18184ed0015afa8
2026-09-24@innisfreeusainstagram15511139%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8e562c77a94eb91d
2026-09-24@crumblinstagram30,76731,8844%✓ within band4bc874165a612d1e
2026-09-24@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,6082,40733%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9f16a687e290d239
2026-09-24@sephorainstagram7,3817,9327%✓ within banda6712120e2af3c19
2026-09-24@ediktedinstagram33956540%✗ miss — under-called — late burst26a170f211df55e0
2026-09-24@mindymaesmarketinstagram836527%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye42616c7171e1205
2026-09-24@lululemoninstagram6,0896,5978%✓ within band906db08403a96464
2026-09-24@huluinstagram17,69533,18647%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdae795cddda24df3
2026-09-24@kyliecosmeticstiktok15,1238,01289%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfcf639059ce57039
2026-09-24@mayorgacoffeeinstagram28269%✓ within band4968413bc1738d8d
2026-09-24@duolingoinstagram9,82542,16177%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd5bda1945c8e32fc
2026-09-24@maybellineinstagram3,5405,00629%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8d55b3de780efdab
2026-09-24@lucidmotorsinstagram37041711%✓ within band1010bdef2d98489f
2026-09-24@freepeopleinstagram2,5022,5733%✓ within band2fec8a18d05ba207
2026-09-24@joyluxincinstagram3,290721356%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1d01e3f099f65165
2026-09-24@osjoblotinstagram3642,75987%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3960756d52e00121
2026-09-24@mollyjewelryusinstagram1,48133,62796%✗ miss — under-called — late burst621d94b1c2673d99
2026-09-24@abercrombieinstagram2,0792,38713%✓ within band269b6c50659c5bcf
2026-09-24@joyluxincinstagram34319%✓ within band867bd1b8d5bd4fe0
2026-09-24@redbullinstagram106,147186,31843%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3b4fda60b78b00db
2026-09-24@frankiesbikinisinstagram2,5382,20115%✓ within band62952167e8df9c0a
2026-09-24@mountaindewinstagram3,3342,97112%✓ within bandc67419fc33b8f89e
2026-09-24@charlottetilburyinstagram5,6616,40012%✓ within band53569d2b7781bb1b
2026-09-24@laloinstagram543364%✗ miss — over-called — early decay219612fc0b9779d3
2026-09-24@savagexfentyinstagram9031,07316%✓ within band3f9655f8216324bb
2026-09-24@glowrecipeinstagram74692820%✓ within bandc60b3995a0bbda3a
2026-09-24@drinkolipopinstagram53847114%✓ within bandc57ea47b512b17d9
2026-09-24@skimsinstagram3,3883,3830%✓ within band1fc69370b35244b3
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram1,5512,28132%✗ miss — under-called — late burst884f1b47057f68f3
2026-09-24@lysbeautyofficialinstagram986648%✗ miss — over-called — early decay746c6d7ab69c6fd3
2026-09-24@casetifyinstagram38333116%✓ within band43a6c51962f44d28
2026-09-24@themobbeautytiktok60341545%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb80221ee9b2c375a
2026-09-24@moroccanoiltiktok67295330%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb9b482e3ce68f5e6
2026-09-24@theordinaryinstagram3,6313,10417%✓ within band8e4f473c877b2653
2026-09-24@itjustworkswellnessinstagram8492%✗ miss — over-called — early decay515f0a67e5a9c42f
2026-09-24@neomwellbeingtiktok62043642%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55c80725a63ec3a4
2026-09-24@lofttiktok33838212%✓ within bandeac9426c8ee62a86
2026-09-24@nyxcosmeticsinstagram8781,22628%✗ miss — under-called — late burst12d194cb30e61f2f
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram8582,18761%✗ miss — under-called — late burst62cbc1d6d8f64cbd

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.