Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6836)
2226 / 6836within 20% of actual (33%)
8334open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15216

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-25@andotherstoriestiktok47082143%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9eeb4411e0d6c7c2
2026-09-25@meshkiinstagram2,6133,66529%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3432a1aa8b9e81eb
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram29255347%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f6b6be52f90ee80
2026-09-25@louisvuittoninstagram27,38527,8262%✓ within bandbd163f42f3a6ff12
2026-09-25@charlottetilburyinstagram7,4515,10746%✗ miss — over-called — early decay95fd6f74536e41e7
2026-09-25@redbullinstagram143,912164,71913%✓ within bandf6a7cc86d4c1c25c
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram8791,46940%✗ miss — under-called — late burst052ff3bcab5c04a2
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram2762791%✓ within band87b0c6ebb1be2e48
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram28,61335,12918%✓ within band8a3d17fea40c7c62
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram2,4642,80812%✓ within band3c5814e7526440eb
2026-09-25@ediktedinstagram47062325%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd3c557afbf29b47c
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram36068648%✗ miss — under-called — late burste51f4affad299064
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram1,1741,1344%✓ within band2b92abf3e7d4faaf
2026-09-25@revolveinstagram41878947%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7bededf89d364d39
2026-09-25@charlottetilburyinstagram2,5444,44543%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ae33839e51cb9d2
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram91331%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8202f78277852cce
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram9729%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybf21424d67863c71
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram7536%✗ miss — over-called — early decay416d38221f1fb2a6
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram2,8663,97128%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ec119143c67d70c
2026-09-25@doritostiktok2,8053,17012%✓ within bandb1385409d59bcef8
2026-09-25@nordstrominstagram25420325%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9fffebcf5ed72e55
2026-09-25@hulutiktok3,211247,40099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst393c7d324eee33a3
2026-09-25@mindymaesmarketinstagram144066%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3ab0d67d3e418320
2026-09-25@macrobabyinstagram162943%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ec84d53b2221555
2026-09-25@huluinstagram2312549%✓ within band9559996cea344d4b
2026-09-25@younglainstagram5,3285,6055%✓ within bande8e86df5cfab40d4
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram39493858%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9fbb83bf21e9143b
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram1,09488424%✗ miss — over-called — early decay14a1901786f3639a
2026-09-25@johnscrazysocksinstagram14222136%✗ miss — under-called — late burstde184b1f2be2c8be
2026-09-25@jluxlabelinstagram40653925%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6777ea65edbbf526
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram15,15231,14651%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0dff2bc463736ab4
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram48359519%✓ within bandaa18f84736e221c6
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram42053321%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9bb19c6e5ff9e808
2026-09-25@ediktedinstagram22026818%✓ within band43e3a069da35909f
2026-09-25@huluinstagram2,7365,93654%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3a0b3c6f41f10d36
2026-09-25@huluinstagram1,4461,62811%✓ within band52314168ca8a2ac6
2026-09-25@stevemaddeninstagram3,67816,96378%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc8e193ff0a9cb139
2026-09-25@alphaleteinstagram3253076%✓ within band8fc53380543cba7c
2026-09-25@naircareinstagram63605%✓ within band7b921e763ebb49ea
2026-09-24@lofttiktok35941313%✓ within banda96d80dce07241df
2026-09-24@crumblinstagram11,50316,48530%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta236f8949ed70cea
2026-09-24@huupeofficialinstagram1169620%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2e54eaf209890ee8
2026-09-24@nailbooinstagram583757%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2a44eeaa3858909f
2026-09-24@summerfridaysinstagram2,1101,84115%✓ within bandad9b65c10f2e7818
2026-09-24@mzwallacenyctiktok3303261%✓ within band681ef9fe332b6055
2026-09-24@milkmakeupinstagram19131740%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4a11d32c44ce84bf
2026-09-24@tower28beautyinstagram2602533%✓ within bandcd41249233ed8fe4
2026-09-24@liquidivtiktok93273327%✗ miss — over-called — early decay28f88698a90a210d
2026-09-24@milkmakeupinstagram62950026%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye22bb151d620ba63
2026-09-24@jansporttiktok2,95939,90093%✗ miss — under-called — late burste77b10e4d6ce39f6
2026-09-24@gfuelenergyinstagram44,85740,72910%✓ within band9cf951617cbd5e59
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram1,0581,68037%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf5020397e4b67053
2026-09-24@casetifyinstagram31122638%✗ miss — over-called — early decay766a4f4baca615b8
2026-09-24@wendysinstagram5,123217,72198%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30c4a36c20081810
2026-09-24@skincarebydrnassifinstagram161322%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6d263d1323a81ea1
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram8832,57266%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbd87e66fe0d3d78b
2026-09-24@ediktedinstagram65879818%✓ within band2ff36a98f898ebf1
2026-09-24@princesspollyinstagram29833511%✓ within band8e32f3cfc8e5b120
2026-09-24@nelliesfreerangeinstagram1208934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55fbef21aa13901b
2026-09-24@manlybandsinstagram171330%✗ miss — over-called — early decay74923f6f58eeb602
2026-09-24@madewellinstagram66854822%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye9dcd9e250994f20
2026-09-24@sephorainstagram1,9891,58925%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb37f752bbc3a0a9e
2026-09-24@lysbeautyofficialinstagram26393672%✗ miss — under-called — late burst25965b48f9fa079d
2026-09-24@josiemaraninstagram3213113%✓ within band1ce8bc64e76319e2
2026-09-24@charlottetilburytiktok23,10725,90011%✓ within bandacc30a9a42f624fe
2026-09-24@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,4424,53246%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta88ea1263e66b71c
2026-09-24@stevemaddentiktok3,83215,00074%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd15baffa58747ac8
2026-09-24@sephorainstagram4,9916,53924%✗ miss — under-called — late burst18caa6c3f8af8642
2026-09-24@manlybandsinstagram132853%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfba3dce3f81e82e1
2026-09-24@shopluluaveinstagram9936373%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbba13acfb296bbb7
2026-09-24@innosuppsinstagram12116%✓ within band527c5219438e8792
2026-09-24@nordstrominstagram2342361%✓ within band512c5327f0467d26
2026-09-24@ogx_beautyinstagram756418%✓ within band7a7b5f072e5186fe
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram6101,83467%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfa21b6616beb65da
2026-09-24@liquidivinstagram68860314%✓ within banddde79ad21f2bfece
2026-09-24@huluinstagram6,24018,27966%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta35562bd92bf0e25
2026-09-24@netflixinstagram30,72846,38034%✗ miss — under-called — late burst55883643a8ff001e
2026-09-24@gfuelenergyinstagram21418019%✓ within band8d160225a676303e
2026-09-24@fentybeautyinstagram4,2545,54223%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f25410ca4aee3aa
2026-09-24@revolveinstagram1,2221,48618%✓ within band54bd69e683460e60
2026-09-24@humnutritiontiktok258121113%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7cc280a85323288d
2026-09-24@gfuelenergyinstagram39235311%✓ within band960764fce7c92a81
2026-09-24@oldspicetiktok9,0757,00730%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc751155c9f8fd9a6
2026-09-24@japanlainstagram5495907%✓ within band541a7d03d903526c
2026-09-24@bandaidbrandinstagram272128%✗ miss — over-called — early decayabad8f6d6c834145
2026-09-24@itjustworkswellnesstiktok3349493%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf05f9bfcad0d65de
2026-09-24@ipsyinstagram1048720%✓ within banda073761105d6625b
2026-09-24@huluinstagram14,468244,94294%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb9b5a1e65c4a058e
2026-09-24@younglainstagram8,91210,07012%✓ within band3c0498443729aa8f
2026-09-24@jenisicecreamsinstagram4334242%✓ within bandd826e5ba908aef9b
2026-09-24@duolingoinstagram42,53996,72156%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ba1ac428a2f0be4
2026-09-24@innisfreeusatiktok6,16015,50060%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta63006928a5c2585
2026-09-24@michaelkorsinstagram8858781%✓ within bande0472f4b0d6ec361
2026-09-24@kyliecosmeticsinstagram6,6636,2537%✓ within bandf9d02751bfd9b985
2026-09-24@fentybeautyinstagram32,66182,11060%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd78567fbf9a2f0f9
2026-09-24@ghostlifestyleinstagram39122177%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7c1942cfd52f8162
2026-09-24@chewyinstagram13837563%✗ miss — under-called — late burste2c959f3b082db1e
2026-09-24@jockofueltiktok1,8871,33142%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a519f2941eb2c45
2026-09-24@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,9923,93449%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta0037b1a0d3a7c24
2026-09-24@drunkelephantinstagram14822233%✗ miss — under-called — late burstebbcb1e82cc30355

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.