Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=4104)
1131 / 4104within 20% of actual (28%)
5733open bets resolving at 72h
171public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 39% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v2 · n_locked total: 9839

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-07@milkmakeupinstagram39822378%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4fd3e6bdbe17284e
2026-09-07@newbalanceinstagram22,67018,02826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay03c53e227c5b6c97
2026-09-07@jockofuelinstagram1,4726,73478%✗ miss — under-called — late burst01723ab58bc19d86
2026-09-07@marykayusinstagram6415889%✓ within banded4554c684047abb
2026-09-07@vuoriclothinginstagram12,01210,9949%✓ within band10ee7419d290eb64
2026-09-07@laloinstagram16314414%✓ within band7bb84b8ca174faa7
2026-09-07@doritosinstagram3833861%✓ within band1caedb1eb8d8d50b
2026-09-07@janeiredaleinstagram94940%✓ within bandd53262fe49bf81de
2026-09-07@doritostiktok12,5428,07255%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1748b54f09b4c718
2026-09-07@madewellinstagram7478199%✓ within band64c9fdb98ce5b920
2026-09-07@mindymaesmarkettiktok33817396%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb3ed6aef716f43fd
2026-09-07@gatoradeinstagram1921901%✓ within banddd8cf1ec7c5c4045
2026-09-07@longchampinstagram1,10610,63190%✗ miss — under-called — late burste1f2721ee4490dd2
2026-09-07@maseratiinstagram15,52017,28110%✓ within bandfd8d6abec3777180
2026-09-07@duolingoinstagram52,90042,28125%✗ miss — over-called — early decay414297180aa3b58c
2026-09-07@neweracapinstagram1,1312,07946%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1d51cc409d6d260c
2026-09-07@innisfreeusainstagram2172046%✓ within band0a287f64e3a62563
2026-09-07@urbanoutfittersinstagram71496826%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc78933d0876aad65
2026-09-07@freepeopleinstagram4,3174,77510%✓ within band83414e662196fe7b
2026-09-07@oreoinstagram83368621%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4fa1a7016abdfc17
2026-09-07@luvmehairinstagram10128064%✗ miss — under-called — late burst23511319ae5f6bd3
2026-09-07@nudestixinstagram77849%✓ within band5baadf3aed66fa89
2026-09-07@abercrombieinstagram9631,21921%✗ miss — under-called — late burst852f03d1975a0b7f
2026-09-07@jenisicecreamsinstagram2,6842,25919%✓ within banda32c1673450357ca
2026-09-07@littlespooninstagram37233112%✓ within band1bb129b07d1a59b2
2026-09-07@louisvuittoninstagram28,94731,4328%✓ within bandbef07f7b3d157593
2026-09-07@aloyogainstagram1,591797100%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye8618f467c323553
2026-09-07@loftinstagram3163479%✓ within bande759990eed614866
2026-09-07@macrobabyinstagram1151096%✓ within bandb1eaa32d4d7f2240
2026-09-07@shopmarissacollectionsinstagram16618912%✓ within bandf4699d4f7160dfb2
2026-09-07@jimmychooinstagram1,1101,1161%✓ within band97506a112db7ddfb
2026-09-07@lolasaratogainstagram938017%✓ within band58de4a790f0e4f51
2026-09-07@maybellineinstagram2,3552,1918%✓ within band1caa1870ff96776f
2026-09-07@andotherstoriesinstagram2612399%✓ within band5ec23ed7bf230b96
2026-09-07@maisonkitsuneinstagram6916605%✓ within band3a5ac0580680cda5
2026-09-07@memoparisofficialtiktok31,9712,300,00099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0124c267895aeb1f
2026-09-07@gatoradeinstagram7,7018,61211%✓ within band72bec35728a8b4aa
2026-09-07@gatoradeinstagram32,97131,2026%✓ within band0750b64ccf87d6e1
2026-09-07@mzwallacenyctiktok2,251593280%✗ miss — over-called — early decay99c0c5b72dd8bb27
2026-09-07@mollyjewelryusinstagram32423,53699%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf287d9b461fd5048
2026-09-07@johnfriedausinstagram261664%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya6bd510cbd83c5d5
2026-09-07@manlybandstiktok81242890%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8d31ce509e053c3b
2026-09-07@mindymaesmarkettiktok60669%✓ within band3851e98698d119d0
2026-09-07@hotmiamistylestiktok85149074%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaef91417385e1085
2026-09-07@humnutritiontiktok390121222%✗ miss — over-called — early decay407b2f70ed45ca68
2026-09-07@mindymaesmarketinstagram214047%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5d922ba1ee6864d3
2026-09-07@humnutritioninstagram153253%✗ miss — under-called — late bursteddd18d88cae0e39
2026-09-07@abercrombieinstagram6557077%✓ within band3cf3830bdf70f9ac
2026-09-06@younglainstagram16,49523,25329%✗ miss — under-called — late burst81cdb9766f1526b2
2026-09-06@mayorgacoffeeinstagram1171079%✓ within bandbb914cecf5812ca9
2026-09-06@huupeofficialinstagram896244%✗ miss — over-called — early decay25bfac5047ec1429
2026-09-06@mysmiletiktok25633022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst117330f4ff0d747a
2026-09-06@madhappyinstagram3,0762,31733%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8c07d2e6ca0224e0
2026-09-06@janeiredaletiktok775296162%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7bcb5e8b5a5d1539
2026-09-06@innosuppsinstagram5571,01645%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaed94cb0102d8e5d
2026-09-06@mysmileinstagram6457%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8e69bc80b0a351a4
2026-09-06@theordinarytiktok13,3937,11688%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2b08b7280fbcc01f
2026-09-06@oreotiktok16,88121,60022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7a968b1e8eeb0f18
2026-09-06@nzxttiktok3,7031,171216%✗ miss — over-called — early decay79da9136048fd0af
2026-09-06@nelliesfreerangetiktok81058638%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfcb965324e27757a
2026-09-06@vitacocoinstagram10245278%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc759c396d61c8181
2026-09-06@nelliesfreerangeinstagram513355%✗ miss — over-called — early decayefac61da8b424e81
2026-09-06@joyluxincinstagram2668596%✗ miss — under-called — late burstef65bf5dd08eb025
2026-09-06@chobaniinstagram5941,03142%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbcd43533fd938194
2026-09-06@tower28beautyinstagram6086527%✓ within band753aafc6e4ad1f97
2026-09-06@nzxtinstagram11212712%✓ within band44a7e35324e50155
2026-09-06@madewellinstagram1,0111,20016%✓ within banda444f54395311b56
2026-09-06@duolingoinstagram14,145149,26890%✗ miss — under-called — late burst243922b2f25d346a
2026-09-06@janeiredaleinstagram8712430%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8556cbe3749c5e58
2026-09-06@nzxtinstagram23428217%✓ within bandfcf9cebf18596e6f
2026-09-06@loftinstagram2082237%✓ within banda947e4829fc53ca4
2026-09-06@jeffreestarcosmeticstiktok1,0501,1206%✓ within band06a459e4c7adf4d9
2026-09-06@minetanbodyskintiktok1,162356226%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya384ac05450c62a9
2026-09-06@neweracapinstagram6756730%✓ within band87fad94b9c3031d4
2026-09-06@neweracapinstagram1,7451,41623%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc065e7714de9de0e
2026-09-06@neweracapinstagram74666912%✓ within band6e344feed8248044
2026-09-06@stevemaddeninstagram17816111%✓ within band30e17d3c5badca63
2026-09-06@jluxlabelinstagram25052853%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta29eea47deab2ca4
2026-09-06@revolveinstagram6811,09638%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbc896fc2878adac5
2026-09-06@impactmouthguardsinstagram1279632%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfd64fa5d54719e31
2026-09-06@elfcosmeticsinstagram3,6892,26663%✗ miss — over-called — early decay291ae0551835b948
2026-09-06@chipotleinstagram38,71447,87519%✓ within band9d9e1b4304d8cf95
2026-09-06@frankiesbikinistiktok11,15847,40076%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4df3eaceccc19d96
2026-09-06@luxurybazaartiktok1,304599118%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8b01f125499c0ef7
2026-09-06@lysbeautyofficialinstagram60575%✓ within band04e25fef6a00efcb
2026-09-06@naturopathicatiktok953304213%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6239d6acfc0de241
2026-09-06@nudestixtiktok1,377602129%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3dd6f0072eaa3b2f
2026-09-06@ghostlifestyleinstagram7197727%✓ within band26275546f353e1c5
2026-09-06@freepeopleinstagram2,1723,24233%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta69bc4cf3d4cbe8b
2026-09-06@savagexfentyinstagram1,5321,79214%✓ within band58bb7529f2ec70a0
2026-09-06@liquidivinstagram8510116%✓ within bandae6de04ca333c2fd
2026-09-06@naircareinstagram3683554%✓ within bandb438b20109f65a3a
2026-09-06@shopluluaveinstagram1,0381,27318%✓ within band0048fbcf5632cc94
2026-09-06@fentybeautyinstagram10,7759,39815%✓ within band561a65e70f48886b
2026-09-06@innisfreeusainstagram6,3735,40518%✓ within banda67a5c34f662dab4
2026-09-06@marcjacobsinstagram1,07096012%✓ within bandf3752f4a79ab03d7
2026-09-06@ourplaceinstagram1,11897814%✓ within band3a26b79b23b73c66
2026-09-06@garnierusainstagram31822939%✗ miss — over-called — early decay63ecb3637d416d28
2026-09-06@lysbeautyofficialinstagram5325391%✓ within band3024fd84a2fb9e39
2026-09-06@skincarebydrnassifinstagram173957%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdfa54410765841c4

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
2026-07-05 17:10@rarebeautyinstagram43,299resolves in ~0h34ed4ec29da2db30
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram2,097resolves in ~0h32d5716c943ca608
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram386resolves in ~0h4c3a73df07f73467
2026-07-05 21:53@skimsinstagram1,732resolves in ~0h760b3825df0a7f45
2026-07-05 22:56@fashionnovainstagram294resolves in ~0ha339e6d16c5c8d49
2026-07-06 01:27@crumblinstagram19,627resolves in ~0hce7c36036b510bf9
2026-07-06 01:52@fashionnovainstagram337resolves in ~0h1a1c2961937ff548
2026-07-06 01:52@younglainstagram1,459resolves in ~0hedfb22c881df24ec
2026-07-06 03:52@fashionnovainstagram172resolves in ~0h45ae5db1688fb109
2026-07-06 04:52@fashionnovainstagram490resolves in ~0hfa1c7ec11269ee5c
2026-07-06 08:52@redbullinstagram12,188resolves in ~0h2388a10fc7982335
2026-07-06 14:00@fashionnovainstagram477resolves in ~0hd866de42b3bbb1f0
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.