Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=4753)
1389 / 4753within 20% of actual (29%)
7000open bets resolving at 72h
173public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 37% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v2 · n_locked total: 11755

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-13@johnfriedaustiktok22717232%✗ miss — over-called — early decay737346cc956deec7
2026-09-13@nyxcosmeticsinstagram2,0081,8866%✓ within band9f27d8d763d8ed60
2026-09-13@neweracapinstagram1,3711,2966%✓ within band3e987824caab9f6b
2026-09-13@longchampinstagram1,4481,09532%✗ miss — over-called — early decay76aa4c7b6558b5c0
2026-09-13@loftinstagram65375714%✓ within banda4e0c057128f5e8c
2026-09-13@magicspooncerealinstagram502879%✗ miss — over-called — early decay57066d8d7a0e55de
2026-09-13@duolingoinstagram35,618101,27565%✗ miss — under-called — late burst748dc48edccf3d27
2026-09-13@nudestixinstagram48493%✓ within bandf72b731bf6be5e43
2026-09-13@summerfridaysinstagram2,3542,08413%✓ within banda33a6dc104e1eb1c
2026-09-13@longchamptiktok4,8793,00163%✗ miss — over-called — early decayddb861d1ce93c983
2026-09-13@neomwellbeingtiktok695339105%✗ miss — over-called — early decay16fb452a32bfe7af
2026-09-13@lalotiktok1,08795114%✓ within bandbc669bf8f9f33a76
2026-09-13@nyxcosmeticsinstagram8031,64251%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9cb19b0f4ccc93e7
2026-09-13@andotherstoriesinstagram29123723%✗ miss — over-called — early decay84cdb1cdaeba48ab
2026-09-13@maccosmeticsinstagram1,9756,42469%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta47d8b7d3127d5d7
2026-09-13@hudabeautyinstagram62,72249,30527%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55133d204078ea7f
2026-09-13@innosuppsinstagram12237067%✗ miss — under-called — late burst19c6f65a552f85b5
2026-09-13@moroccanoilinstagram35729421%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya401b4993a7ad10a
2026-09-13@skimsinstagram12,91510,96918%✓ within band0d546ec72f24f4f8
2026-09-13@ourplaceinstagram16920116%✓ within bande5d5237e6be70af3
2026-09-13@madewellinstagram1,2471,04420%✓ within band27f3262e5bee067c
2026-09-13@luxurybazaartiktok1,11967566%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3e11249c5e0c4406
2026-09-13@mccormickspicestiktok1,15770564%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2be58de3cbad1771
2026-09-13@hotmiamistylesinstagram53531%✓ within band13f4e9ad686ced95
2026-09-13@ogx_beautyinstagram2803038%✓ within bandcfffd2e3589c767d
2026-09-13@magicspooncerealtiktok2,085936123%✗ miss — over-called — early decay889c81b531f29251
2026-09-13@skimsinstagram19,52411,69667%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7ebb326441c9fb62
2026-09-13@neomwellbeinginstagram55598%✓ within band37388ccaaa6a14c7
2026-09-13@skimsinstagram15,00811,90726%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2136eba551067122
2026-09-13@andotherstoriestiktok79055742%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye7f653ce32a395f6
2026-09-13@memoparisofficialtiktok733125,30099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4e00d13150d7d12d
2026-09-13@maisondesabreinstagram21426519%✓ within bandae284f4823febae8
2026-09-13@jcatbeautyinstagram69988721%✗ miss — under-called — late burst72308eb4ca94f731
2026-09-13@aloyogainstagram2,1163,67342%✗ miss — under-called — late burstefa27e237e604fbe
2026-09-13@joyluxincinstagram354625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8662d53927f7ae34
2026-09-13@skincarebydrnassiftiktok392190106%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3182e0d4179bf7d1
2026-09-13@lululemontiktok7,51911,70036%✗ miss — under-called — late burst449c81e2b946a858
2026-09-13@garnierusatiktok2,0581,46241%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1db37e01da6f8158
2026-09-13@lolasaratogatiktok2,493887181%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2bbf7e5f8e3f878
2026-09-13@josiemarantiktok1,7191,42321%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf32bc5b286b2d304
2026-09-13@loftinstagram48341018%✓ within band58ea6f3970d4010a
2026-09-13@casetifyinstagram3,5802,13867%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd9a54c709bbbecfa
2026-09-13@midinmodinstagram3422%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbf278b78479360c7
2026-09-13@neutrogenainstagram4364687%✓ within bandaf1ec8a32534993b
2026-09-13@alphaleteinstagram3513297%✓ within band5dc3678e51e074cb
2026-09-13@mysmileinstagram156143%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya5e0257703cec5e9
2026-09-13@freepeopleinstagram1,3341,59516%✓ within band02a75bda5602c964
2026-09-13@lovingtanofficialinstagram-1364100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8c6a237b416db324
2026-09-13@huupeofficialinstagram8931186%✗ miss — over-called — early decay430fb2c69b6eac1b
2026-09-13@mayorgacoffeeinstagram78836%✓ within bandb1224aaa680089af
2026-09-13@jluxlabelinstagram1081080%✓ within band12ea444c5538f812
2026-09-13@mindymaesmarketinstagram64614%✓ within band95450a5a9294ca27
2026-09-13@freepeopleinstagram1,8922,38221%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta323bcc52ed10f61
2026-09-13@naircareinstagram251657%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5e1ea96f316e7f21
2026-09-13@mythicalinstagram11,81210,8529%✓ within band6b8dd9cf95252802
2026-09-13@josiemaraninstagram8778375%✓ within band59a359fe99711f95
2026-09-13@moroccanoilinstagram50967625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5260161b02bab557
2026-09-12@doritostiktok9,4907,20832%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydf2dcd9d26099a17
2026-09-12@nelliesfreerangetiktok59644534%✗ miss — over-called — early decay09d84a2ba3fdaaab
2026-09-12@elfcosmeticsinstagram11,22016,71133%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfd8a5e9245235cb9
2026-09-12@madewellinstagram26431717%✓ within band0e48564e0a072552
2026-09-12@loftinstagram35730318%✓ within banda5ade1ffe5e8ebeb
2026-09-12@duolingoinstagram17,76447,75363%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ef9684660b06bd7
2026-09-12@jluxlabelinstagram89,908100,66611%✓ within bandd9a623fcaaed3a1e
2026-09-12@drunkelephanttiktok1,29383854%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydffba1cf112d83e0
2026-09-12@midinmodtiktok1641682%✓ within bandaa519cdc7a0ec8ae
2026-09-12@johnscrazysockstiktok1,398429226%✗ miss — over-called — early decay31df8f8dec79b855
2026-09-12@casetifyinstagram16,09313,10923%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6f5e22817672cb16
2026-09-12@newbalanceinstagram62,15042,01948%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycd8689fe92049ead
2026-09-12@newbalanceinstagram3,1782,88010%✓ within band96c6a610c1847b50
2026-09-12@newbalanceinstagram4,2523,87010%✓ within band7d8dbd7ae356f224
2026-09-12@mountaindewinstagram5,8936,63111%✓ within band4fb1d30110f34e66
2026-09-12@littlespooninstagram25929312%✓ within band2839443b704be94f
2026-09-12@liquidivinstagram64448433%✗ miss — over-called — early decay23317a63410da198
2026-09-12@ipsyinstagram4751,72472%✗ miss — under-called — late burst326a6692d7c97f3b
2026-09-12@bandaidbrandinstagram163555%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0b3682f8d67f1938
2026-09-12@milkmakeupinstagram38144715%✓ within bande0fd274ea205cf1a
2026-09-12@jenisicecreamsinstagram1,5251,4525%✓ within bandb3f0bc112c471193
2026-09-12@mynufaceinstagram235760%✗ miss — under-called — late burst00f46af2d7c66267
2026-09-12@skincarebydrnassifinstagram292326%✗ miss — over-called — early decay20a120ba7ff6a6c2
2026-09-12@myloralsinstagram182220%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c354d4cdcfb2dea
2026-09-12@vuoriclothinginstagram6712,74676%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3d7488ba263435ae
2026-09-12@mzwallacenyctiktok50327285%✗ miss — over-called — early decay672ac56d1103267b
2026-09-12@johnfriedausinstagram101214%✓ within banda025aa36d6edfe9f
2026-09-12@ritualinstagram2,0931,05898%✗ miss — over-called — early decay193e72d02c5189e0
2026-09-12@jcatbeautyinstagram141614%✓ within band1286c7345119ddee
2026-09-12@ghostlifestyleinstagram85075413%✓ within banda5d7722149530ff3
2026-09-12@athleticbrewinginstagram1,3491,3192%✓ within bande188c879483aa91e
2026-09-12@nelliesfreerangeinstagram6929137%✗ miss — over-called — early decay03ff15f7df3ded2b
2026-09-12@rarebeautyinstagram24,96617,73441%✗ miss — over-called — early decay89cc3d495ae57576
2026-09-12@urbanoutfittersinstagram28824518%✓ within bande24a5abdccee753e
2026-09-12@doritosinstagram28733514%✓ within band9b473e5efca7b385
2026-09-12@wendysinstagram74855934%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye44757965bf63a80
2026-09-12@garnierusainstagram8210018%✓ within band6d9972a310c7a968
2026-09-12@nzxtinstagram13619932%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdbb1ac7876c8e8de
2026-09-12@justfabonlinetiktok56236554%✗ miss — over-called — early decay32fea462aa736fa4
2026-09-12@naircaretiktok770347122%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4e2a29cff8cf301c
2026-09-12@madhappyinstagram3,3812,84119%✓ within bandb5dafa004c5973c9
2026-09-12@itsa10haircareinstagram12110812%✓ within bandfbc4d505d48a40ca
2026-09-12@gatoradeinstagram2,2392,3254%✓ within bandcebf0009c81cc521

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
2026-07-05 17:10@rarebeautyinstagram43,299resolves in ~0h34ed4ec29da2db30
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram2,097resolves in ~0h32d5716c943ca608
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram386resolves in ~0h4c3a73df07f73467
2026-07-05 21:53@princesspollyinstagram262resolves in ~0hb72a5c1b3d525773
2026-07-05 21:53@princesspollyinstagram421resolves in ~0h9c94e5eecf48e4f4
2026-07-05 21:53@skimsinstagram1,732resolves in ~0h760b3825df0a7f45
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.