Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5250)
1580 / 5250within 20% of actual (30%)
7604open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 36% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 12887

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram20827624%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb483d051f23f6041
2026-09-16@andotherstoriesinstagram44037717%✓ within band7f30b87bf6a5131a
2026-09-16@charlottetilburyinstagram4,97228,68983%✗ miss — under-called — late burst310b37e3237da8f9
2026-09-16@redbullinstagram54,336181,42170%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2b7441e216cb0ad7
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram1,3221,46010%✓ within band92bbffdd43223ff1
2026-09-16@meshkiinstagram2,3292,62811%✓ within band2a488a094b5e4fd9
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram1741824%✓ within band91c5b62beb11332a
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram81243587%✗ miss — over-called — early decay453ba0adf12c7611
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram4,8016,32224%✗ miss — under-called — late burste12df1e7615720bb
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram74164216%✓ within band633a66b780e79eaf
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram55242530%✗ miss — over-called — early decay412c64cb2bc4bbdc
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram39931826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay65cdc2646db2488e
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram35322656%✗ miss — over-called — early decay63ab2555e1371d55
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram3851,13166%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6bbf5a56ed0e7252
2026-09-16@mindymaesmarketinstagram7434117%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3dd6d7ce90176cc6
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram71838387%✗ miss — over-called — early decay96f392fd1c1b7827
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram1,2231,92036%✗ miss — under-called — late burst47c1d59d06be120a
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram1,19390332%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya21419ffeeafe1ad
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram76461025%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb8a25a4f27576186
2026-09-16@revolveinstagram39465340%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2122a174079a4df5
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram2,3002,74616%✓ within bandf510e7cae102d4a1
2026-09-16@manlybandsinstagram12136%✓ within bandd63efee3d76fb4f8
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram34624143%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9f9f7446b641f892
2026-09-16@meshkiinstagram52979934%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb1db6ae392e8ffba
2026-09-16@jcatbeautyinstagram222012%✓ within band3c2f9262fe49cba4
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram8421,47843%✗ miss — under-called — late burst652ae35c02fcbc67
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram14411624%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5d361cd8593ca12f
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram45631047%✗ miss — over-called — early decay54f4ae0e315e9634
2026-09-16@mollyjewelryusinstagram3,290155,05798%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4101c12973ddf03e
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram74565214%✓ within band3defc8585828e13a
2026-09-16@louisvuittoninstagram14,44617,03515%✓ within band063a9bec6800d74e
2026-09-15@fentybeautyinstagram5,6905,3676%✓ within bandee16053657c05c86
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram6351,17346%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc187f277511e0d38
2026-09-15@mountaindewinstagram2,9543,1225%✓ within band613f2eb340ce3684
2026-09-15@marykayusinstagram4574580%✓ within bandeabafc95ae94a06d
2026-09-15@lolasaratogainstagram364621%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfa302c5c29468d74
2026-09-15@nikeinstagram73,66797,43724%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta3c50e4fdebf721f
2026-09-15@younglainstagram8,9276,98528%✗ miss — over-called — early decayefff884e2604ffd9
2026-09-15@monsterjaminstagram76890615%✓ within bandc7f16a0f2ddd67db
2026-09-15@louisvuittoninstagram18,20317,0737%✓ within band72a7cb10a430b257
2026-09-15@huluinstagram2,1783,36335%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb9489df98e7bdee4
2026-09-15@fashionnovainstagram1,1301,38118%✓ within band9cfc61c35c68cb2b
2026-09-15@princesspollyinstagram46526873%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydb65e47393e38cec
2026-09-15@huupeofficialinstagram9413832%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc59837cb1353d29d
2026-09-15@loftinstagram19822914%✓ within bandc8a9ee1c4bf7789f
2026-09-15@summerfridaysinstagram1,3651,62816%✓ within bande80f831cc737da91
2026-09-15@luvmehairinstagram20328629%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcac003fbd5d10532
2026-09-15@nordstrominstagram59045231%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya863906bbc493872
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram6911,01532%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd89dd536c5e60a6a
2026-09-15@princesspollyinstagram69548942%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc5379de62ee3b8b7
2026-09-15@josiemaraninstagram12018736%✗ miss — under-called — late burst76c10f5798ce996e
2026-09-15@mzwallacenyctiktok5393,50285%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5077d7ed31df49cd
2026-09-15@nyxcosmeticsinstagram4,6242,301101%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb26fa2b715498ea0
2026-09-15@princesspollyinstagram1,080523107%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8c3906121a607cfb
2026-09-15@chewytiktok2,0621,9585%✓ within band83e00242b5e5865e
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram2,1244,54253%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc445997d7d012b55
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram6,7436,9333%✓ within band82cbbf745113aeec
2026-09-15@princesspollyinstagram39829435%✗ miss — over-called — early decay476b4357b6597052
2026-09-15@shopmarissacollectionstiktok54029682%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb43c42055989957f
2026-09-15@manlybandsinstagram594434%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4c29ece21a052082
2026-09-15@monsterjaminstagram7456819%✓ within band936de02986707b42
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram1,04582227%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya1e797b113c0a7a7
2026-09-15@savagexfentyinstagram15,69233,91654%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb05bf1cb6e47b1c8
2026-09-15@ediktedinstagram40033320%✓ within banddb87f08fa0a838e5
2026-09-15@princesspollyinstagram74148652%✗ miss — over-called — early decay951485ad2ac55f9c
2026-09-15@lululemoninstagram1,9791,24060%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydc2e275918572635
2026-09-15@marykayusinstagram48955111%✓ within band9b1bc4486802300e
2026-09-15@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,5191,23123%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfdbc77f8e4c4a602
2026-09-15@fashionnovainstagram9351,51938%✗ miss — under-called — late burst231fb362e0fb92cd
2026-09-15@jenisicecreamsinstagram6,15010,44241%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8559eaea6524aa76
2026-09-15@ediktedinstagram1,9221,65516%✓ within bande9e1f651363e872f
2026-09-15@kyliecosmeticsinstagram34,34526,58429%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf82d6c3645a6226e
2026-09-15@skimsinstagram3,9404,37110%✓ within band18df81a70b8e7a37
2026-09-15@revolveinstagram1,11680439%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya5a4c16f2d5973fa
2026-09-15@netflixinstagram54,28465,04816%✓ within band50d732ad38a535b1
2026-09-15@gfuelenergyinstagram14412713%✓ within band5ed5d7184628fdaf
2026-09-15@nzxtinstagram16413819%✓ within bandfd90a7c78f815b1a
2026-09-15@longchampinstagram1,1032,83261%✗ miss — under-called — late burst560bac119e0b24cc
2026-09-15@savagexfentyinstagram30,38667,47955%✗ miss — under-called — late burst42da50eab8383fb2
2026-09-15@stevemaddeninstagram2,2542,3876%✓ within band4f12b451dc7ac385
2026-09-15@fashionnovainstagram7831,11530%✗ miss — under-called — late burst36e7419d6566f824
2026-09-15@hudabeautyinstagram5,2465,5856%✓ within band6d9dfbb294384047
2026-09-15@tower28beautyinstagram48187945%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6adb89170a9ab423
2026-09-15@ediktedinstagram1,3472,30041%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf7e361a861f6b947
2026-09-15@nordstrominstagram25937330%✗ miss — under-called — late burst067ea19e85f2b4e6
2026-09-15@crumblinstagram15,89012,40228%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4699bb27eb1cf576
2026-09-15@milkmakeupinstagram32141823%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbeb61c953bce2970
2026-09-15@fentybeautyinstagram2,3001,74232%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8ecf0d3809d30db6
2026-09-15@gymsharkinstagram36,78137,9733%✓ within bandb290c51cde7f12af
2026-09-15@madhappytiktok2,8611,99444%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6edaa3dedf42079d
2026-09-15@theordinarytiktok18,97610,60079%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9f7fee06e3a30191
2026-09-15@huluinstagram38831523%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8284ac02fff62246
2026-09-15@freepeopleinstagram1,0221,23217%✓ within band25df91b537a495a1
2026-09-15@netflixinstagram54,293102,68547%✗ miss — under-called — late burst91a6b2c0dae557ec
2026-09-15@mountaindewinstagram6,4198,00120%✓ within bandb1dcb35a98ef44be
2026-09-15@myloralsinstagram16862573%✗ miss — under-called — late burst41fbb3967161e75a
2026-09-15@itjustworkswellnessinstagram20201%✓ within band226c57f0f6dd111b
2026-09-15@jluxlabelinstagram22632330%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c05caffd411ca74
2026-09-15@michaelkorsinstagram2,4191,97223%✗ miss — over-called — early decay88811d7e1f7806ab
2026-09-15@monsterjaminstagram77550155%✗ miss — over-called — early decay35866d3af7caa4af

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.