Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5037)
1500 / 5037within 20% of actual (30%)
7433open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 36% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 12476

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-14@minetanbodyskintiktok6116,39190%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfe59b36c131a7786
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram1,7601,40226%✗ miss — over-called — early decay743dbb844bc473bb
2026-09-14@ediktedinstagram8458114%✓ within band12baef317c7257f4
2026-09-14@michaelkorsinstagram1,5532,87146%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9707a09bb11317b0
2026-09-14@huluinstagram2,25539,72694%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd9f1668569fb0393
2026-09-14@joyluxincinstagram6526794%✓ within band987c349fd2f52723
2026-09-14@eatmaxjerkytiktok35649828%✗ miss — under-called — late burst16e6cf224a83fbe9
2026-09-14@athleticbrewingtiktok4,58123,20080%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d7614097b8476c4
2026-09-14@michaelkorsinstagram2,7222,39414%✓ within bandb2f5acec6ca68715
2026-09-14@duolingoinstagram39,33226,11251%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya991ad923fbf3493
2026-09-14@mythicaltiktok43,49213,900213%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2601831d984c7bd
2026-09-14@itjustworkswellnessinstagram3760%✗ miss — under-called — late burst82f94b5eae8e9efa
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram88,606105,67816%✓ within band9e05cb37b7d5b154
2026-09-14@itsa10haircareinstagram48377538%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1f9c255bdb0566c4
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram1,5461,5621%✓ within bandcadee2690639724e
2026-09-14@elfcosmeticsinstagram5,7138,06229%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3477748a99f4f6c2
2026-09-14@maccosmeticsinstagram95364947%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaf55f27dcc26f9be
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram6,2144,70832%✗ miss — over-called — early decayebe5e43ee2ddbb0e
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram13035063%✗ miss — under-called — late burst993fdb87cdfc8346
2026-09-14@revolveinstagram1,3701,3821%✓ within bandf3a46bd690510640
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram77,13648,57659%✗ miss — over-called — early decay92613ac055432aaa
2026-09-14@nzxtinstagram7232,10766%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf29947efc1f2b3cb
2026-09-14@lysbeautyofficialinstagram21617027%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6a7f44e4f5fb177f
2026-09-14@sephorainstagram1,4031,08629%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb54d3d3d27feb338
2026-09-14@mythicalinstagram2,6282,7143%✓ within band720c947516639519
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram41836016%✓ within band571036933108a247
2026-09-14@japanlainstagram4614278%✓ within band93863cd2bf349494
2026-09-14@justfabonlineinstagram75063917%✓ within band28965cf9768f40db
2026-09-14@gfuelenergyinstagram916358156%✗ miss — over-called — early decay68b70fe1993deac9
2026-09-14@ipsyinstagram2522405%✓ within band3611b0f458d759cb
2026-09-14@younglainstagram15,7218,92676%✗ miss — over-called — early decay758c1e4e16ed0745
2026-09-14@livetintedinstagram20230935%✗ miss — under-called — late burste9bce2d2ef5b496f
2026-09-14@shopluluaveinstagram231108114%✗ miss — over-called — early decay18d3772e91331fa3
2026-09-14@gymsharkinstagram33,19327,83819%✓ within band4f2b781eb5ea9b42
2026-09-14@stevemaddeninstagram5361,04749%✗ miss — under-called — late burst27bb0c3a7ab2540c
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram14,63022,99836%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0254482b9df17b7d
2026-09-14@jcatbeautyinstagram25276%✓ within band3b36178dec7417fe
2026-09-14@michaelkorsinstagram82,54661,23535%✗ miss — over-called — early decay60460104bbacfb6f
2026-09-14@casetifyinstagram3,8705,92435%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc82cae03c4bfdb23
2026-09-14@casetifytiktok41,472188,30078%✗ miss — under-called — late burst219b3e25f798b5e3
2026-09-14@myloralsinstagram203542%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8568ff81dbfbb3ea
2026-09-14@hotmiamistylesinstagram7512439%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd42430f65d7cbc0c
2026-09-14@frankiesbikinistiktok3,6602,40452%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8c89dc4d50c7a710
2026-09-14@nurturelifeinstagram40414%✓ within bandd07d66418ad46297
2026-09-14@oldspiceinstagram10412315%✓ within band0a4ae0b07ceb5563
2026-09-14@neweggtiktok7468098%✓ within bandee9865ae5eea8e78
2026-09-14@itjustworkswellnesstiktok613129375%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8280a7a726d131ee
2026-09-14@huluinstagram10,5405,257100%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3d53f7be5df4a542
2026-09-14@huluinstagram2,5062,3089%✓ within bandc50875773a25abed
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram9,05713,27432%✗ miss — under-called — late burst20830cdab5d08b5c
2026-09-14@nordstrominstagram27832815%✓ within band4064f918dfc97e17
2026-09-14@sephorainstagram3,0794,01523%✗ miss — under-called — late burst99b8541c5d4aa6fa
2026-09-14@huluinstagram13,3649,18246%✗ miss — over-called — early decayed08844a67d7dfcc
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram18,23538,60053%✗ miss — under-called — late burst062e2bd8afe1079e
2026-09-14@revolveinstagram52859712%✓ within band58b517ad692a6a4c
2026-09-14@michaelkorsinstagram79858038%✗ miss — over-called — early decay41469076c2820275
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram37525547%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6177089aeef3edc6
2026-09-14@huluinstagram5,3396,52418%✓ within band613d74da162a4552
2026-09-14@huluinstagram3,6603,9046%✓ within band36362c082293c3ae
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram29,589140,48579%✗ miss — under-called — late burst45c4526313a22500
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram33,257110,63570%✗ miss — under-called — late burst537eb0965d05d3bd
2026-09-14@monsterjaminstagram4024082%✓ within band2006799e2f896866
2026-09-14@ediktedinstagram27050947%✗ miss — under-called — late burst257d265a9eddaea5
2026-09-14@monsterjaminstagram637284124%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd3824a9776b57606
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram8931,25229%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfce0e3b4e8b45496
2026-09-14@huluinstagram5,0646,56923%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6dc33d7e4844e34e
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram5245789%✓ within band725dd165d025e925
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram15,41313,57914%✓ within bandf2324e1b0ae785f2
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram6485949%✓ within bandff9bdac72066bc01
2026-09-14@meshkiinstagram7297270%✓ within bandafae6a5c689c2a0c
2026-09-14@ediktedinstagram6991,69859%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3a32aa87b90f612a
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram1,0021,0363%✓ within bandbfeeebaeeeac155e
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram2,0961,77418%✓ within band2b00e616e572590f
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram20314243%✗ miss — over-called — early decay26a32ffe7cd4dad1
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram20112462%✗ miss — over-called — early decay07b14766627276fa
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram15012817%✓ within band6a3218b5b2940770
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram33830112%✓ within bandb9ba3bf2ce1bcb86
2026-09-14@nordstrominstagram8068001%✓ within banddb10bc550945c11a
2026-09-14@revolveinstagram3,7281,703119%✗ miss — over-called — early decay961c6748de952382
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram298140113%✗ miss — over-called — early decay38864b82a89085bf
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram22836838%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf1551d993ad827ee
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram273,182129,795110%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5c828ff435b558bb
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram110,56560,51283%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc24438f6760906dd
2026-09-14@ediktedinstagram1,1724,72075%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb242f4e9ea28dd34
2026-09-14@revolveinstagram45462027%✗ miss — under-called — late burstad376d585b038683
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram193,873119,77062%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8c7e5a7b4a7077d5
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram103,35642,533143%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8b9026d18b32a395
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram146,516116,85525%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6ad10f5eb0ac0bcb
2026-09-14@revolveinstagram3473276%✓ within band40e5fab2a4482745
2026-09-14@fashionnovainstagram1,4084,30667%✗ miss — under-called — late bursted876b1de7536dbd
2026-09-14@nordstrominstagram9931,61538%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0ded356b3f847a94
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram36629126%✗ miss — over-called — early decay91f018938b6ef392
2026-09-14@princesspollyinstagram69382716%✓ within band7e6a3ba62ab293a4
2026-09-14@lysbeautyofficialinstagram83769%✓ within band34c6564b33395712
2026-09-14@luvmehairinstagram2522738%✓ within band70a0303f604acb8b
2026-09-14@luvmehairinstagram4213669%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfd6d6a53faf107c4
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram637,866244,914160%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya2c1a2eae6ae4021
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram9,7785,15990%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybe8302ad1f391af8
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram38,04230,42325%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0bd3df87725a0d9f
2026-09-14@netflixinstagram14,71824,83041%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta758513b254b38b7

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.