Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7799)
2638 / 7799within 20% of actual (34%)
8666open bets resolving at 72h
176public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 16514

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-30@nyxcosmeticsinstagram6756691%✓ within band74383880005504b1
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram9,03726,14565%✗ miss — under-called — late burst20b12c1c97406cb7
2026-09-30@stevemaddeninstagram6306103%✓ within band90abf274d8812bfe
2026-09-30@littlespooninstagram10311914%✓ within band67172066a310dbb3
2026-09-30@princesspollyinstagram48691847%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d855449366d36d2
2026-09-30@lululemoninstagram2,4281,52559%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0753839be9f11ae1
2026-09-30@urbanoutfittersinstagram4,0885,40024%✗ miss — under-called — late burst62c356e7b8b100ea
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram1,5733,09949%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2b2ec27b40d359dc
2026-09-30@nordstrominstagram6225788%✓ within band0b9bc50fcb34fea7
2026-09-30@neomwellbeinginstagram17113130%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8f11fae8cd284859
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram11,2948,37035%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya8cb4263222a393e
2026-09-30@maybellineinstagram99,09078,45826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay69b55e76f13b4201
2026-09-30@rarebeautyinstagram11,78011,7230%✓ within band3210f77e1c6efb2c
2026-09-30@eatmaxjerkyinstagram1101165%✓ within bande5abb7ed5d1c8699
2026-09-30@gymsharkinstagram9,58314,82335%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdb7fb499cd504896
2026-09-30@nyxcosmeticsinstagram56643430%✗ miss — over-called — early decayba155fdbcd572705
2026-09-30@urbanoutfittersinstagram1,8251,39331%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycaaf5df6bd6d2e5c
2026-09-30@maccosmeticsinstagram9991,39628%✗ miss — under-called — late burst17111873bb65b93d
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram6281,55760%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdc6ba01b50014f0d
2026-09-30@huluinstagram28968758%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd41e9dd9f698acfe
2026-09-30@mountaindewinstagram1,25098327%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb9a473fb38f88c41
2026-09-30@japanlainstagram53838241%✗ miss — over-called — early decay94446620818dbb8c
2026-09-30@jenisicecreamsinstagram55382433%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7fdf7951c7407036
2026-09-30@mindymaesmarketinstagram264238%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf196b11c7d394bba
2026-09-30@revolveinstagram60345931%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd35f14e4f03b9de0
2026-09-30@glossierinstagram2,1622,2624%✓ within banda155819faca44588
2026-09-30@mayorgacoffeeinstagram9225764%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf0e824222974e39b
2026-09-30@kyliecosmeticsinstagram34,83247,29526%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb0e7631bb93bbfd7
2026-09-30@alphaleteinstagram24037937%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd37b9e735fa39e03
2026-09-30@skincarebydrnassifinstagram4817973%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb5b81801bcda5d88
2026-09-30@sephorainstagram1,8313,42046%✗ miss — under-called — late burste4c01241602fe6c6
2026-09-30@skincarebydrnassiftiktok9854,81880%✗ miss — under-called — late burste0383389dc680114
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram13,71095,91986%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta5842262570bce76
2026-09-30@revolveinstagram4233879%✓ within banda10fd97f419e6bd5
2026-09-30@michaelkorsinstagram2,1323,65242%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbb1411f6d5c2c12a
2026-09-30@athleticbrewingtiktok84247577%✗ miss — over-called — early decay152101b0069c9bc9
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram6,41419,45367%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4423d402fb1f39fb
2026-09-30@shopluluaveinstagram10211612%✓ within banda20c7aa49f3346a2
2026-09-30@ediktedinstagram23441043%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4462c5e5327b118
2026-09-30@sephorainstagram4,02433,87188%✗ miss — under-called — late burst60de7eec456abd05
2026-09-30@marykayusinstagram53561313%✓ within band574290c27a327dd0
2026-09-30@gilletteinstagram3011,93184%✗ miss — under-called — late burst13d7c9c41d53ba2e
2026-09-30@mollyjewelryusinstagram4634895%✓ within bandd3f69bdc70e88adc
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram52283938%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9aa435cf89356569
2026-09-30@revolveinstagram20646055%✗ miss — under-called — late burst06ad44832d4f1bfd
2026-09-30@lululemoninstagram2,0072,30313%✓ within band681e406abfd446cd
2026-09-30@jeffreestarcosmeticstiktok9,4846,40748%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydc054a3e2ed0b912
2026-09-30@lysbeautyofficialinstagram17115610%✓ within banddef5a41450e74f55
2026-09-30@lulusinstagram15,80316,8216%✓ within band18a9cd5979ef2de5
2026-09-30@japanlainstagram11212812%✓ within band93d648cd91bbb92f
2026-09-30@ediktedinstagram3,1783,4378%✓ within band950bb81f8ab44e34
2026-09-30@younglainstagram13,44216,77620%✓ within bandddf6423f5fedf127
2026-09-30@gfuelenergyinstagram4,8004,4677%✓ within bandc8bbe878e700468b
2026-09-30@littlespoontiktok1,743477266%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5daf5d2a0cda18b9
2026-09-30@jimmychootiktok3,172143,60098%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf7dea916de950554
2026-09-30@jimmychootiktok2,20026,00092%✗ miss — under-called — late burst596727f2248330a3
2026-09-30@neweracapinstagram1,1691,03113%✓ within band1c210ede85bdd3a3
2026-09-30@innisfreeusainstagram13512013%✓ within banda18819872ea2916f
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram1,1191,1694%✓ within band8927ee92daa00ca9
2026-09-30@livetintedinstagram1211253%✓ within band539043feee21186b
2026-09-30@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,2622,3915%✓ within band81f28adb697e2a00
2026-09-30@glowrecipeinstagram52368924%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta36cb6589dbcf985
2026-09-30@summerfridaysinstagram2,5232,02125%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5327307866169402
2026-09-30@rhodeinstagram56,24661,2598%✓ within band23aa57693719a3d9
2026-09-30@skimsinstagram2,6073,30721%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1edf0768e8e2169d
2026-09-30@savagexfentyinstagram1,1961,62126%✗ miss — under-called — late burst13d1f82b737fd2fa
2026-09-30@rarebeautyinstagram22,69115,12650%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf7e62c1a62cd66fb
2026-09-30@shopmarissacollectionstiktok846365132%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaba27e46dca61015
2026-09-30@gilletteinstagram94959460%✗ miss — over-called — early decay14b9cb4575d1f5bc
2026-09-30@ipsyinstagram11616027%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3ac2c2ff10860598
2026-09-30@ediktedinstagram70783115%✓ within band0836d1d5835b9579
2026-09-30@casetifyinstagram2382619%✓ within band0aef08ca5b9235a9
2026-09-30@lalotiktok1,5521,5852%✓ within bandc0b7ee5b7da2d511
2026-09-30@abercrombieinstagram2,5192,22813%✓ within band01c34abfdd94579e
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram9,20938,95076%✗ miss — under-called — late burst125accf5ee494d03
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram62152020%✓ within band9af0f700550ddbb6
2026-09-30@lucidmotorsinstagram1,0289924%✓ within bandbd90e9efc0bb4c39
2026-09-30@shopmarissacollectionstiktok1,311333294%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye92af88b0168341a
2026-09-30@josiemaraninstagram1,3321,59016%✓ within bandc26708440dd74da0
2026-09-30@madewellinstagram3373176%✓ within bandcc4ab0cf6c49b9c2
2026-09-30@netflixinstagram49,625194,02674%✗ miss — under-called — late burste9e7ba4788a8502d
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram2,2872,98824%✗ miss — under-called — late burst171696a150de47b9
2026-09-30@sephorainstagram2,4352,19511%✓ within band86a1badfe4a398ab
2026-09-30@maseratiinstagram49,27745,2769%✓ within bandecc6789695ad4aa8
2026-09-30@makeupbymarioinstagram8,8788,3936%✓ within bandb9ff15c31db5bf14
2026-09-30@redbullinstagram63,04854,65615%✓ within band11468f162ae631aa
2026-09-30@moroccanoilinstagram13616819%✓ within band3e9cae67c7914ecb
2026-09-30@huupeofficialinstagram1441422%✓ within bandb513def4a9e76f39
2026-09-30@aloyogainstagram3,0581,305134%✗ miss — over-called — early decay781c2fc5ebc5bf40
2026-09-30@jimmychooinstagram34,69235,5432%✓ within band8c5597749201cc04
2026-09-30@charlottetilburyinstagram2,4664,58446%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf457aa0427c7ee03
2026-09-30@jimmychooinstagram2,1192,78524%✗ miss — under-called — late burst927c9bd6aaf53de1
2026-09-30@lolasaratogainstagram5011155%✗ miss — under-called — late burst55902a6a214a1356
2026-09-30@meshkiinstagram4354282%✓ within band36d5c602d55a61b0
2026-09-30@andotherstoriesinstagram23817536%✗ miss — over-called — early decay03b4c9a76a7702af
2026-09-30@maccosmeticsinstagram9489985%✓ within band543efb511a2785f8
2026-09-30@hotmiamistylesinstagram92964%✓ within band8ffbc23d9f46c8d3
2026-09-30@longchampinstagram1,5171,4088%✓ within band78f1081956e2dbbc
2026-09-30@hotmiamistylesinstagram44554719%✓ within band7372ff9e03c6443e
2026-09-30@loftinstagram43035720%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2d8f1fa4bf4f90b4

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.