Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6656)
2157 / 6656within 20% of actual (32%)
8240open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 14954

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-24@meshkiinstagram99070540%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1f9df774ab2d0077
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram20532938%✗ miss — under-called — late burst15e7f6dfd4ce2d8a
2026-09-24@humnutritioninstagram403418%✓ within band9b262dfeacbab50c
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram4294270%✓ within bandb4ab20ca7eff713b
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram5726198%✓ within bandacc01e70667bff39
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram24234530%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf9f462195ca304eb
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram38650323%✗ miss — under-called — late burst41c56da29901ade8
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram3443178%✓ within band33ce92d2e651ac53
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram9251,33130%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdff036861fd0d653
2026-09-24@innosuppsinstagram102051%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d0a891dd7ebf4ba
2026-09-24@crumbltiktok324,517341,9005%✓ within bandf697e4d48c53ba38
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram7447,35890%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbe5301f7302a71fa
2026-09-24@ediktedinstagram9061,38835%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0f0db67af7627c52
2026-09-24@princesspollyinstagram1921920%✓ within bandb9578bad11b4e4e8
2026-09-24@mysmileinstagram3966%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9a724902efdb3bb2
2026-09-24@mysmileinstagram448%✓ within band96804efffb9d3588
2026-09-24@freepeopleinstagram3,7084,71821%✗ miss — under-called — late burst34c1c7c5f1464247
2026-09-24@michaelkorstiktok4,0343,10930%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5cd0062eb4292cc2
2026-09-24@luvmehairinstagram611,63896%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0d397314c0be9638
2026-09-24@marykayustiktok1,9662,34016%✓ within bandd5814a61ea40245b
2026-09-24@nzxtinstagram4314193%✓ within bandf3d4521303b75aa0
2026-09-24@mindymaesmarketinstagram506523%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9e9549dbee6f36f5
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram6921,08636%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5be43cfaf07386af
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram29935516%✓ within bandc6cf6188ca467a01
2026-09-24@revolveinstagram79498519%✓ within band2efcb6a52e62ff4b
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram6907032%✓ within bandaa4d7e056fe3992c
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram9401,94652%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfefd8d2cb20c90fe
2026-09-24@monsterjaminstagram29526611%✓ within bandb29e692cd3f58a6e
2026-09-24@princesspollyinstagram26452450%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf2ff6776b2d64510
2026-09-24@fashionnovainstagram23125510%✓ within bandcf8e9d25aa920e21
2026-09-24@crumblinstagram61,74240,84251%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybdf14196ef4f504c
2026-09-24@meshkiinstagram5,8118,43631%✗ miss — under-called — late burstac9b3dbb10185eb8
2026-09-24@ediktedinstagram57698742%✗ miss — under-called — late burst806838019f44becd
2026-09-24@skincarebydrnassiftiktok344153125%✗ miss — over-called — early decay116956eb53c0480e
2026-09-24@charlottetilburytiktok66,45854,00023%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1198df2aca2c8a0e
2026-09-23@skincarebydrnassifinstagram121114%✓ within band9636bd1f6cd9ee53
2026-09-23@huupeofficialinstagram15754192%✗ miss — over-called — early decay15fe72fc6de4704d
2026-09-23@stevemaddentiktok1,9333,36142%✗ miss — under-called — late burst77c8f017920ec352
2026-09-23@johnscrazysocksinstagram13512210%✓ within band65395810a57d3b1b
2026-09-23@huluinstagram3,27638,48192%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfe150ffe3503486d
2026-09-23@midinmodinstagram42105%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5768d026b753c2b8
2026-09-23@midinmodtiktok5016369%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0c96392a86249d2b
2026-09-23@loftinstagram1341468%✓ within band1ac5acd9d78be78e
2026-09-23@fashionnovainstagram21230330%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1c3b4eaefa7897e4
2026-09-23@urbanoutfittersinstagram1,2512,30146%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d27caec1eb2869e
2026-09-23@vuoriclothinginstagram51262818%✓ within bandb796fc02cf364f94
2026-09-23@marykayusinstagram9121,27028%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5880329b4ab08737
2026-09-23@stevemaddeninstagram23441544%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0fa52362c5187a3d
2026-09-23@nordstrominstagram6416512%✓ within band546ce522e6584479
2026-09-23@sephorainstagram8,2867,9844%✓ within band09a2e41e4f7975b1
2026-09-23@manlybandsinstagram117386%✗ miss — under-called — late burst95ab581355f33528
2026-09-23@impactmouthguardsinstagram363117%✓ within band7551bc8a482659c8
2026-09-23@shopluluaveinstagram0100100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd2d23eb69db52762
2026-09-23@younglainstagram6,5447,1028%✓ within band0d548c9362033439
2026-09-23@maybellineinstagram4,7734,9554%✓ within bandf72d96a3b769993a
2026-09-23@fentybeautyinstagram3,9323,55810%✓ within band26e9005a289a4e1d
2026-09-23@ipsyinstagram15828344%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1fb9370cfbdfa5b2
2026-09-23@maccosmeticsinstagram4,8008,17641%✗ miss — under-called — late burst20bd2a7f6dac8eb9
2026-09-23@fashionnovainstagram26539132%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7bc655604e899e77
2026-09-23@huluinstagram4531,93977%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb1782d4934d4cd55
2026-09-23@michaelkorsinstagram1,6082,43334%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8e60091732bf93cb
2026-09-23@jenisicecreamsinstagram92576321%✗ miss — over-called — early decay82362fcb447bb41c
2026-09-23@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1751,35187%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9871237074c1062a
2026-09-23@lysbeautyofficialinstagram74696%✓ within bandba602a2dcc593b9d
2026-09-23@sephorainstagram2,5383,54928%✗ miss — under-called — late burst922e1ce8139fe614
2026-09-23@kyliecosmeticsinstagram25,93830,36015%✓ within bandf3956f4eeb4369ca
2026-09-23@revolveinstagram1,1402,01944%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbaf5084b54bba186
2026-09-23@japanlainstagram1271313%✓ within band25fb0eaecf3bf55a
2026-09-23@abercrombieinstagram32,72228,78414%✓ within band07fecc0ea5dd002c
2026-09-23@revolveinstagram1,3333,21358%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e6c1f8e215b1370
2026-09-23@huluinstagram3,28434,25990%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4c11b6ea040b1584
2026-09-23@jluxlabelinstagram2362412%✓ within band1848a856eee2697b
2026-09-23@gymsharkinstagram6,0785,13818%✓ within band70917efc51f1034d
2026-09-23@humnutritioninstagram151712%✓ within bande8d6b9e060ade28d
2026-09-23@fashionnovainstagram68758018%✓ within band1c39eb9aa7f814d3
2026-09-23@charlottetilburyinstagram2,4212,78813%✓ within band8ea548b0e02be73b
2026-09-23@mindymaesmarketinstagram971057%✓ within bandfcbdc97643836ec3
2026-09-23@japanlainstagram2742854%✓ within band40d058032b4f7e73
2026-09-23@fashionnovainstagram27928,07999%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc84f239e52b3a3a1
2026-09-23@ediktedinstagram5636047%✓ within band76131f896b2b9158
2026-09-23@mynufaceinstagram41471%✗ miss — under-called — late burstab46cb8c03edd264
2026-09-23@nordstrominstagram35247926%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaa710895f6e0125d
2026-09-23@jluxlabeltiktok1,896822131%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybf5b47db6ecf0409
2026-09-23@mollyjewelryusinstagram43361429%✗ miss — under-called — late burst419e15e89e01c139
2026-09-23@josiemaraninstagram2852619%✓ within band52c8eb7865fb4175
2026-09-23@livetintedinstagram1231305%✓ within band1afeb360a2a047dc
2026-09-23@fashionnovainstagram30646334%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaabcf677335ce37a
2026-09-23@glowrecipeinstagram1,2341,10212%✓ within band01fb1b5d54310214
2026-09-23@sephorainstagram2,7094,92045%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3c24f5e6a980727c
2026-09-23@vuoriclothinginstagram1,22092332%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5739fc57dd35eebe
2026-09-23@rhodeinstagram114,924257,51055%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdc2a3256bdf15a55
2026-09-23@drunkelephantinstagram3263517%✓ within bandefa2851d316f2ce7
2026-09-23@rarebeautyinstagram14,70629,91851%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3a1ee7a4fdd9ab8c
2026-09-23@cocacolainstagram2,3902,6068%✓ within band8355e04dfcde80f2
2026-09-23@nyxcosmeticsinstagram8828820%✓ within band5c59dffd106c1af5
2026-09-23@netflixinstagram32,27964,27450%✗ miss — under-called — late burst07cbefd3208926a0
2026-09-23@humnutritioninstagram324833%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7a6faab342767f70
2026-09-23@huluinstagram1,32181263%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1d0798b1d71d568b
2026-09-23@revolveinstagram2973042%✓ within bandbcbb9638555dfa90
2026-09-23@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,3341,92221%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1f74f690fab00881

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.