Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6335)
2024 / 6335within 20% of actual (32%)
7903open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 34% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 14285

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-21@ipsyinstagram4684874%✓ within bandb81cb77d9b1f81f2
2026-09-21@tower28beautyinstagram32340721%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcb6c1c690866acc6
2026-09-21@mayorgacoffeeinstagram457035%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd885fc650dea1998
2026-09-21@princesspollyinstagram2302321%✓ within band3bdc6a0d971e015b
2026-09-21@younglainstagram4,9733,79931%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf2ab967d8a03c4f7
2026-09-21@meshkiinstagram9481,16919%✓ within banda70f125bef162076
2026-09-21@huupeofficialinstagram715627%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3ed1320839164237
2026-09-21@jsukijewelryinstagram754252,498100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8be67f73f4c67efd
2026-09-21@mayorgacoffeetiktok23844046%✗ miss — under-called — late burst279275eaaa17f976
2026-09-21@olayinstagram314022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a08ed8231afdd38
2026-09-21@lysbeautyofficialinstagram20128930%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9d7b274d4f297e8a
2026-09-21@huluinstagram12,60641,17069%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4e1ca96772000bdc
2026-09-21@littlespooninstagram8618333%✓ within band7f87c78ff752f74a
2026-09-21@monsterjaminstagram45854816%✓ within bandf6517ab28c4b38a0
2026-09-21@macrobabyinstagram42421%✓ within band3d842f58c15f1a64
2026-09-21@duolingoinstagram31,163104,15470%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta2e867f07dc9a1ab
2026-09-21@fentybeautyinstagram8,6948,3105%✓ within band838800d0b10eaad6
2026-09-21@skincarebydrnassifinstagram11126%✓ within banded5581a6f0a80577
2026-09-21@loomwellinstagram35045924%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta4195fb2293fee65
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram9461,10214%✓ within band3fb83de3a82571b7
2026-09-21@makeupbymarioinstagram1,4651,73616%✓ within band97aeabf795800172
2026-09-21@loftinstagram14924038%✗ miss — under-called — late burst44694e99884ec3db
2026-09-21@princesspollyinstagram4261,11962%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta48ac38c749aa3ec
2026-09-21@huluinstagram1,6524,18160%✗ miss — under-called — late burst254b7c8258f2f35f
2026-09-21@mycurlproductsinstagram14159%✓ within bande99f175e2d2c4473
2026-09-21@ediktedinstagram16418210%✓ within bandcdf3ea85f012e7b8
2026-09-21@ipsyinstagram11212410%✓ within banda88d924140e7e025
2026-09-21@olayinstagram5415214%✓ within band53428c2aad06c927
2026-09-21@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,11390024%✗ miss — over-called — early decay28e4a4d5dc5054ce
2026-09-21@sephorainstagram1,9812,19210%✓ within band9db6f905d15c4200
2026-09-21@osjoblotinstagram25016750%✗ miss — over-called — early decay41311fccedfa3948
2026-09-21@oldspiceinstagram3,6173,7022%✓ within bandc3c1df33d32e5730
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram3433461%✓ within band55f71f58e3dd4f40
2026-09-21@mzwallacenycinstagram404816%✓ within bandb3c8514c75108f4f
2026-09-21@nelliesfreerangetiktok37841810%✓ within band66d0b05454025e64
2026-09-21@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,2972,4657%✓ within band29aca32c13f3fcd9
2026-09-21@wendysinstagram3833674%✓ within bandfe02acd9472320b3
2026-09-21@neweracapinstagram51482137%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d485ea729d1d12a
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram23,00350,55955%✗ miss — under-called — late burst35c1b898c19a2df3
2026-09-21@garnierusainstagram47240916%✓ within band100b3ea16cf43ef8
2026-09-21@marykayusinstagram61083427%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7d774cace1956fa5
2026-09-21@itjustworkswellnessinstagram1235%✗ miss — under-called — late burst028d4d5b452d6489
2026-09-21@casetifyinstagram1,6442,14323%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c58c5d2f5e21ce3
2026-09-21@freepeopleinstagram3,0103,35110%✓ within band890eca59e84f2faf
2026-09-21@sephorainstagram3,8973,8591%✓ within band058d3036d2f3c142
2026-09-21@tylenolinstagram161147%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybd07db7c421d04cb
2026-09-21@huluinstagram58,692106,51745%✗ miss — under-called — late burste7451b28eb795afe
2026-09-21@japanlainstagram3953930%✓ within band6d5c0501a5d24db1
2026-09-21@eatmaxjerkyinstagram70649%✓ within band0c796bfa19e0ddde
2026-09-21@shopluluavetiktok2,378955149%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1596212746a4aaf4
2026-09-21@revolveinstagram1,0141,46631%✗ miss — under-called — late burst61e2869e7433e8ab
2026-09-21@manlybandsinstagram202623%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf11495e0fec491bf
2026-09-21@nurturelifeinstagram4320117%✗ miss — over-called — early decay40bd245f856b6154
2026-09-21@innisfreeusatiktok1,61223,40093%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb124f655c916ef2f
2026-09-21@michaelkorsinstagram1,3062,57949%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1426fa82653b2ddf
2026-09-21@jcatbeautyinstagram334932%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5a90a92506560bdd
2026-09-21@maybellineinstagram6,7778,71022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst393759645a79b2d7
2026-09-21@tower28beautytiktok2,4202,71911%✓ within bandb6d3ffd2a70a0aae
2026-09-21@hotmiamistylesinstagram3053359%✓ within bandf9e491d294488c06
2026-09-21@macrobabyinstagram408553%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb8407d3ba00572a3
2026-09-21@ghostlifestyleinstagram52136443%✗ miss — over-called — early decay15b6769d19aeb182
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram4933,19184%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8cb97786c0a350ea
2026-09-21@glowrecipeinstagram1,2452,20944%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9cb60c90c0595aad
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram20,89818,90910%✓ within band7429941dfbb88214
2026-09-21@nelliesfreerangeinstagram71136%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9e988ad233525329
2026-09-21@nyxcosmeticsinstagram2,1041,90610%✓ within bandfebc1700f254f8b1
2026-09-21@milkmakeupinstagram51860214%✓ within band75f30fc59986ec98
2026-09-21@nikeinstagram42,34155,28623%✗ miss — under-called — late burst87283526f82a236b
2026-09-21@charlottetilburyinstagram33,566107,53369%✗ miss — under-called — late burst560750a1c6cd3e10
2026-09-21@gfuelenergyinstagram1161142%✓ within band62438b66e87fbed2
2026-09-21@savagexfentyinstagram4764780%✓ within band6e512f7c714ac665
2026-09-21@maybellineinstagram9949970%✓ within band06fbf08ce1f87711
2026-09-21@myloralsinstagram944993%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7afdf2966111b7da
2026-09-21@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1181213%✓ within bandaea494d06795caed
2026-09-21@lucidmotorstiktok87675816%✓ within band132f0a52252030b2
2026-09-21@naturopathicatiktok1528971%✗ miss — over-called — early decay72f805660633657c
2026-09-21@drunkelephantinstagram3092,04185%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0f89012997716912
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram7521,94961%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1ac0d3f3e9d012bf
2026-09-21@japanlainstagram9015241%✗ miss — under-called — late burst235864cddcdba902
2026-09-21@makeupbymarioinstagram3,6283,14715%✓ within band4603064e5ae07c51
2026-09-21@mycurlproductsinstagram1127843%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0969465e0ebc17b6
2026-09-21@mountaindewinstagram3,6213,5402%✓ within band582c76a79d80336e
2026-09-21@cleanandclearinstagram615511%✓ within band53d595c23a38d925
2026-09-21@ipsyinstagram604727%✗ miss — over-called — early decay76cf9cb9522be615
2026-09-21@johnscrazysocksinstagram47454%✓ within band9133357d12f2b009
2026-09-21@nyxcosmeticsinstagram2,9292,63411%✓ within bandf074d8b287405d0b
2026-09-21@mythicaltiktok71,58032,500120%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7cb20f44b9ed2605
2026-09-21@doritostiktok10,1185,42187%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5cf512a8c525306d
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram7,04310,12530%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f5f63a127287918
2026-09-21@manlybandsinstagram14135%✓ within bandf28c66c9a98d9d5b
2026-09-21@celsiusofficialtiktok33,408170,60080%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfcc833e72282d97f
2026-09-21@glossiertiktok5,5842,157159%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2aa3b63af20dea7
2026-09-21@impactmouthguardsinstagram1571561%✓ within band11bec7203514a049
2026-09-21@hotmiamistylesinstagram12616121%✗ miss — under-called — late burst905cf5b79c343c21
2026-09-21@glossierinstagram1,4621,65412%✓ within band06bf95f392515dc9
2026-09-21@newegginstagram243124%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2a6174fcd8699795
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram42751016%✓ within band4e55a9ed83a2e706
2026-09-21@crumblinstagram11,94717,03730%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8398e581a79d7d84
2026-09-21@rarebeautyinstagram5,8644,54329%✗ miss — over-called — early decay292abb064e7f09b3
2026-09-21@mycurlproductsinstagram103220%✗ miss — over-called — early decay241f8b5d9611b348

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.