Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7009)
2300 / 7009within 20% of actual (33%)
8401open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15455

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-26@fashionnovainstagram21130731%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3209c1618b0481ce
2026-09-26@lucidmotorsinstagram15,33673,34879%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9d6eb9a05f12ccf2
2026-09-26@princesspollyinstagram39546315%✓ within bandda19addd9f5eddd4
2026-09-26@revolveinstagram1,4771,67012%✓ within band9f2f9039e492b4ed
2026-09-26@tower28beautyinstagram4244025%✓ within bandb02b39819dc71322
2026-09-26@tylenolinstagram171334%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3f9bb5123e0c0fc0
2026-09-26@princesspollyinstagram9809305%✓ within bandd0a46bc542596bea
2026-09-26@mindymaesmarketinstagram455519%✓ within bandf2f7e1a32bcd58c7
2026-09-26@mysmileinstagram81232%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd712b81d9b877668
2026-09-26@meshkiinstagram1,3603,34759%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta764b006ab3c9b70
2026-09-26@fashionnovainstagram2,0752,1152%✓ within band8987ad6e0209907d
2026-09-26@mysmileinstagram51463%✗ miss — under-called — late burst81cdf58d5c7936b9
2026-09-26@jcatbeautyinstagram48456%✓ within band0ae97afce17e65ea
2026-09-26@loveshackfancyinstagram01,277100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5f2fdfbaf056eca2
2026-09-26@impactmouthguardsinstagram75732%✓ within bande4a5a5d855ef9b8f
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram8,04772,05589%✗ miss — under-called — late burst371e37f0066074ac
2026-09-26@princesspollyinstagram1209033%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1601efa0e8ed658c
2026-09-26@johnscrazysocksinstagram13812411%✓ within band554b67362bd175df
2026-09-26@younglainstagram26,92244,90240%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2e4a2385c7faab72
2026-09-26@ediktedinstagram49840224%✗ miss — over-called — early decayac4831cbfe55e213
2026-09-26@huluinstagram7,92631,73575%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4d9685ebf80514af
2026-09-26@jluxlabelinstagram25880168%✗ miss — under-called — late burst26c2b0ebd43d209c
2026-09-26@casetifytiktok27,23035,90024%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65eb92c4abd4dc68
2026-09-26@sephorainstagram1,7431,7092%✓ within bandfc134de245ed27ab
2026-09-26@newegginstagram171419%✓ within bande6458478a1d7e310
2026-09-26@mythicalinstagram11,56214,35820%✓ within bandf7921290f5f5bade
2026-09-26@glowrecipetiktok528,4951,200,00056%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc4436caea6b9e3a4
2026-09-26@josiemaraninstagram21524512%✓ within bandd65a27b4c9aa5e3f
2026-09-25@crumblinstagram4,7753,62432%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7fdb49f8211c640e
2026-09-25@revolveinstagram43371539%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd5d099f09f94ddeb
2026-09-25@midinmodinstagram2452%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8c41905e6777b88c
2026-09-25@minetanbodyskintiktok49034642%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3fb83e93e2ed1782
2026-09-25@vuoriclothingtiktok9781,28824%✗ miss — under-called — late bursted175bd62bf9cbfe
2026-09-25@vuoriclothingtiktok8528904%✓ within band0f0c3cf404007870
2026-09-25@humnutritioninstagram13125%✓ within band80b5f7ce45ac0654
2026-09-25@revolveinstagram54474427%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30ccf72b7208fd49
2026-09-25@huluinstagram4,38810,94660%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0416ac5c89450d4c
2026-09-25@glowrecipeinstagram12,79485,28285%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3ebbd1bab2505434
2026-09-25@listerineinstagram52520%✓ within banddbb3b401851ee678
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram6,04624,95176%✗ miss — under-called — late burst714c6f602cf05d56
2026-09-25@huupeofficialinstagram825938%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb04b3bc70172ae83
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram4,9854,9132%✓ within bande31da2891a8a8601
2026-09-25@gfuelenergyinstagram2742692%✓ within bandb024a3072bddbfeb
2026-09-25@mayorgacoffeetiktok49927383%✗ miss — over-called — early decay75ef1a3d753b3aa1
2026-09-25@loftinstagram5275025%✓ within bandb3a44561f95576f3
2026-09-25@shopluluaveinstagram307861%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c1cc5705dc39eb7
2026-09-25@jeffreestarcosmeticstiktok11,039727,80098%✗ miss — under-called — late burst74c0f357832bb1fb
2026-09-25@jansportinstagram1766098%✗ miss — under-called — late burst55b2e26559363b09
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram19,90637,82347%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0e1d69f03e666282
2026-09-25@impactmouthguardsinstagram20923310%✓ within banda449ef2ccb1c9242
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram29240227%✗ miss — under-called — late burstec0a29118a1a081e
2026-09-25@ediktedinstagram20528829%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4d575b4ec981f9ce
2026-09-25@sephorainstagram9,0828,10212%✓ within band3b6797780935f4e1
2026-09-25@neweracaptiktok1,4581,3637%✓ within band2fafa427be590eaa
2026-09-25@japanlainstagram32524035%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybc4989e180d50a06
2026-09-25@duolingoinstagram9,25174,90588%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdda84cbe9e73d15c
2026-09-25@wendysinstagram6081,22550%✗ miss — under-called — late burst54444ed0d91279ff
2026-09-25@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1,1071,0258%✓ within bandf016a32495d95c03
2026-09-25@huluinstagram1,77645,04096%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc235ed929cc5a346
2026-09-25@huluinstagram30,94037,80518%✓ within band089a57e5dc1c6423
2026-09-25@michaelkorsinstagram1,1381,1231%✓ within banded6063b98c588821
2026-09-25@innosuppsinstagram13129%✓ within band13bb615494b53db1
2026-09-25@maybellineinstagram4,2883,43625%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6a27b7694399ea7f
2026-09-25@huluinstagram4,2187,03640%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1fb62205f99b29e7
2026-09-25@savagexfentyinstagram1,6441,26230%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf1551c19b00f7d6b
2026-09-25@madewellinstagram9038516%✓ within band739b26d37cd61ce8
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram15,12736,61259%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf1d92842bd4342e1
2026-09-25@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,0041,54530%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc8c3d85e07ddfff0
2026-09-25@glossiertiktok3,6412,84328%✗ miss — over-called — early decay286ab8db95d8ef9c
2026-09-25@cleanandclearinstagram314430%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb27b9dffbd457436
2026-09-25@bandaidbrandinstagram242018%✓ within bandb8d745be9327df57
2026-09-25@liquidivinstagram33521059%✗ miss — over-called — early decay85e4e06fadde9a17
2026-09-25@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,15089229%✗ miss — over-called — early decay304b0308f951b295
2026-09-25@ipsyinstagram8812631%✗ miss — under-called — late burst810172b1b03ff7f1
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram107,960163,74134%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8a80e8f432215c47
2026-09-25@nailbooinstagram1166288%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaec41b0396c3129f
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram1,1711,2778%✓ within bandd5b3b29d9f88fd74
2026-09-25@sephorainstagram1,6911,6771%✓ within band3e7ab0492303c384
2026-09-25@nyxcosmeticsinstagram6,9054,53352%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7d7bbc1acd88df05
2026-09-25@glossierinstagram5,5854,35028%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf6724f46c81f7017
2026-09-25@fentybeautyinstagram12,83013,6926%✓ within band4f7f3cfa59b0ad61
2026-09-25@michaelkorstiktok4,3833,37130%✗ miss — over-called — early decay78f1b6ae61f4ad36
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram1261282%✓ within bandce47d3845d7a63d6
2026-09-25@japanlainstagram21017421%✗ miss — over-called — early decay85d1b4f4f8a734d8
2026-09-25@innisfreeusainstagram1,07792816%✓ within band14fa442dc21a277d
2026-09-25@mountaindewinstagram1,1861,1137%✓ within band6a64ff22cd01a157
2026-09-25@tylenolinstagram18320410%✓ within band5e049d11bb0af9b4
2026-09-25@chipotleinstagram16,37820,22619%✓ within bandc63769fd58a33ed4
2026-09-25@doritosinstagram32754840%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcc7eb426f606640e
2026-09-25@freepeopleinstagram9461,0036%✓ within bandcadacc4a9ca75595
2026-09-25@revolveinstagram74287215%✓ within band1ffdde51b1cb8422
2026-09-25@manlybandsinstagram161233%✗ miss — over-called — early decay73f3d27296a4ab3d
2026-09-25@ediktedinstagram3,4102,43140%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc7bfbb3882bbdbee
2026-09-25@milkmakeupinstagram1,2941,93433%✗ miss — under-called — late burst95e590f9e69c08cb
2026-09-25@gymsharkinstagram8,9249,1713%✓ within band8dd6e8029bc406b2
2026-09-25@jluxlabelinstagram19716718%✓ within bandd9a496738a45d009
2026-09-25@younglainstagram13,26520,66036%✗ miss — under-called — late burst40a7f1edbd49508d
2026-09-25@doritostiktok10,1577,33438%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4857439ec248474f
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram1,8752,10811%✓ within band28aeb72c8e74b3a6
2026-09-25@mollyjewelryusinstagram3,1471,59298%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye5eeab365087babf

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.