Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7195)
2374 / 7195within 20% of actual (33%)
8463open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15703

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-27@lolasaratogainstagram2752721%✓ within bandeab9ecec2e9012e8
2026-09-27@charlottetilburyinstagram6,4996,1755%✓ within band9abe3007b5ac7682
2026-09-27@louisvuittoninstagram10,43225,17959%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf8de0768c9382f43
2026-09-27@meshkiinstagram823404104%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye5e6a1197b6e536c
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram9851,70442%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65c1fc93e7174047
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram3673476%✓ within band0379ccbae0a87aab
2026-09-27@casetifyinstagram4,9364,9360%✓ within bande58511802bd16d57
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram1,5281,81516%✓ within bandd60997e04f8dad5a
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram6897589%✓ within band8c2df6b3e1a55717
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram30278161%✗ miss — under-called — late burst164444ef8089e19c
2026-09-27@mysmileinstagram6457%✗ miss — over-called — early decayda8c8db3516c51cb
2026-09-27@ediktedinstagram20723311%✓ within band0ecba128cbd2c872
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram20,57534,90641%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdf98eaa4d4ad0cb1
2026-09-27@huupeofficialinstagram203949%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd6f3eecb9052d63a
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram48459318%✓ within bandebaa32541f69ab5d
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram36678653%✗ miss — under-called — late burst98e765ba9ce909b5
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram8588530%✓ within band74e11099ced6c6c4
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram28925812%✓ within band8c18e6287e8b529a
2026-09-27@makeupbymariotiktok21,76319,30013%✓ within banda4cad23a55df7aa5
2026-09-27@ediktedinstagram12611311%✓ within band59241577519071e1
2026-09-27@alphaleteinstagram33049333%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7b57446f6111476c
2026-09-27@meshkiinstagram39657131%✗ miss — under-called — late burst961304b24ca1616f
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram73080710%✓ within bandbd07421a09970e43
2026-09-27@mindymaesmarketinstagram243431%✗ miss — under-called — late burst06d35b452e1ed07d
2026-09-27@mythicalinstagram67,19960,86910%✓ within bandd4cd9bf5e6089888
2026-09-27@joyluxincinstagram25122412%✓ within bande63e4abc6e87598a
2026-09-26@fashionnovainstagram6741,56457%✗ miss — under-called — late burst37f5d5d20a1dba53
2026-09-26@stevemaddeninstagram7131,69958%✗ miss — under-called — late burste67d377f717357f6
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram4,8489,80050%✗ miss — under-called — late burstea8bcc54362d2035
2026-09-26@princesspollyinstagram52465120%✓ within band40db3f22fbf98f46
2026-09-26@jluxlabelinstagram17027739%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8c3d8dc0683f2757
2026-09-26@huupeofficialinstagram385023%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7b4fc1ef530fe085
2026-09-26@younglainstagram3,8543,46011%✓ within bandcbad2afed026da35
2026-09-26@mysmileinstagram433329%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3feadc7063cebf96
2026-09-26@nzxtinstagram18015119%✓ within band30893ab27d7450fb
2026-09-26@crumblinstagram21,09166,51368%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfbe8e341258a5b62
2026-09-26@lulusinstagram6,7945,80017%✓ within bandbd7e3b931256e20f
2026-09-26@manlybandsinstagram27309%✓ within banddea34262282bf6f6
2026-09-26@sephorainstagram2,8493,93528%✗ miss — under-called — late burst950ac49d2e6e37e4
2026-09-26@humnutritioninstagram162637%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf3753a5ba41cb294
2026-09-26@hotmiamistylesinstagram14422034%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta5ddccb693658f02
2026-09-26@princesspollyinstagram51184940%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb8fb94ef92400dd9
2026-09-26@mysmileinstagram32357%✓ within band5d3ede6adc1cfba3
2026-09-26@mysmileinstagram770%✓ within band13a81872cc7a2a32
2026-09-26@mzwallacenycinstagram19423818%✓ within bandbef0cc162c5e7f12
2026-09-26@loftinstagram27235724%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta845b692b67c93a2
2026-09-26@fashionnovainstagram6821,14040%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8d93f44a11462ade
2026-09-26@huluinstagram1,2741,2581%✓ within band17143678d5c44ef6
2026-09-26@nordstrominstagram34625734%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd0c1f284297d22c1
2026-09-26@ediktedinstagram1,1781,51522%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5686854b02fecc81
2026-09-26@jcatbeautyinstagram26285%✓ within bandbd0ab35052305c0e
2026-09-26@jcatbeautyinstagram121112%✓ within band36e1e473094f3f71
2026-09-26@urbanoutfittersinstagram2,8869,93671%✗ miss — under-called — late burstddc4ae0e40809c5c
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram48,75775,58536%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf44bfe4fc0889081
2026-09-26@huluinstagram5,9289,27636%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc798c280b2bf2058
2026-09-26@jluxlabelinstagram2492480%✓ within bande0e7f7d1c8633e7a
2026-09-26@monsterjaminstagram2632868%✓ within band5fb3d26a22e43fd3
2026-09-26@aloyogainstagram8,1126,14532%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybfb93941a7dff44d
2026-09-26@madewellinstagram7396789%✓ within bande468ca63aa13ebd6
2026-09-26@tower28beautyinstagram55171823%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcdd5299ad1be048b
2026-09-26@naircareinstagram12122%✓ within band1e7173e0e5e22a06
2026-09-26@glossiertiktok2,3411,70737%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc555901b02bf3ddf
2026-09-26@innisfreeusainstagram3661,13068%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1bb305962c410224
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram20,83129,28929%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfa80fe52d7d2d334
2026-09-26@theordinaryinstagram1,7322,72636%✗ miss — under-called — late burstae32f601a3d1b00b
2026-09-26@manlybandsinstagram243225%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaac86a96634bc9bc
2026-09-26@johnscrazysocksinstagram393221%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd43e46d154933c47
2026-09-26@huluinstagram6316574%✓ within band1805b67a397d6cbd
2026-09-26@liquidivinstagram2662670%✓ within bandb28a4358288a6912
2026-09-26@shopluluaveinstagram0153100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdc305c00b147e648
2026-09-26@sephorainstagram2,2942,01614%✓ within bandfb0a3e05611ed89c
2026-09-26@younglainstagram34,84747,53627%✗ miss — under-called — late burst057d2d1891b08cc0
2026-09-26@maybellineinstagram3,5343,2489%✓ within bandbdc3c21f81d47a29
2026-09-26@josiemaraninstagram1421516%✓ within band1c4b212d8288bd16
2026-09-26@littlespooninstagram1047931%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2e4093428b5d29e6
2026-09-26@myloralsinstagram262314%✓ within band7a5006345b352ef5
2026-09-26@maccosmeticsinstagram3,2825,25138%✗ miss — under-called — late burst39ef344ef14b2e7c
2026-09-26@huluinstagram3,8089,52060%✗ miss — under-called — late burst349dab3bfd3e2488
2026-09-26@rarebeautyinstagram22,62617,13432%✗ miss — over-called — early decay879195f3b853d892
2026-09-26@kyliecosmeticsinstagram25,07187,77071%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd74f2744cc30d991
2026-09-26@summerfridaysinstagram15,73047,85167%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6907b17070bf3fb4
2026-09-26@ogx_beautyinstagram263116%✓ within band2efc4bf01614ea99
2026-09-26@michaelkorsinstagram1,6301,23432%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf25939d57909caca
2026-09-26@mountaindewtiktok14,2759,06557%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4beb577f3ea7dfab
2026-09-26@mollyjewelryusinstagram32437012%✓ within band95722e6b3443e98b
2026-09-26@themobbeautytiktok43235721%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8dca1351a04bea82
2026-09-26@justfabonlineinstagram8121,43543%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8556c8d7bdd5f9b7
2026-09-26@neweracaptiktok3,5342,50441%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb667e6c95df10196
2026-09-26@nyxcosmeticsinstagram5165425%✓ within banda874bbc93aec8420
2026-09-26@fashionnovainstagram59682027%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc372cc2ecff94656
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram7,0287,1672%✓ within bandb7b7d5e4d318bde5
2026-09-26@mayorgacoffeeinstagram59558%✓ within band719c353edcacfa5a
2026-09-26@netflixinstagram328,845328,5870%✓ within band3c2162b8247d417e
2026-09-26@mountaindewinstagram1,0141,0061%✓ within band895f46c4d8add544
2026-09-26@livetintedinstagram2612889%✓ within banddd1aaccaf99d8b70
2026-09-26@marykayusinstagram57472721%✗ miss — under-called — late burst693d1214d7339a24
2026-09-26@doritosinstagram29923826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1958ed2f95a4a3a4
2026-09-26@gymsharkinstagram7,6287,4742%✓ within band0dd45b2000a45192
2026-09-26@impactmouthguardsinstagram1,06311,92891%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0f3d89e2bf96d363
2026-09-26@kyliecosmeticstiktok13,3936,068121%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a83a366000757a0

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.