Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5364)
1631 / 5364within 20% of actual (30%)
7675open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 36% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13087

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram4,7235,37212%✓ within bande4687b39ef888326
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram2,3583,97241%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdf7f290df74b3de4
2026-09-16@mzwallacenyctiktok94753876%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2b5ed7fd45de48de
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram8951,02012%✓ within band4e555d00b8aeb555
2026-09-16@sephorainstagram28,66826,3659%✓ within band8063c36ee31d417c
2026-09-16@jimmychootiktok7,42622,20066%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5c73e3393d29f832
2026-09-16@kyliecosmeticstiktok911,048680,70034%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8243ff98caf86134
2026-09-16@midinmodtiktok3240%✗ miss — over-called — early decay79c80f5818c7d2f1
2026-09-16@midinmodinstagram6455%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc986a2c8aeb8a639
2026-09-16@mayorgacoffeeinstagram11914015%✓ within bandc8aca0678b689711
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram1,3791,81724%✗ miss — under-called — late burste9c6b7a4fce14d27
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram49634344%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycf8bc101c8279e23
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram38052227%✗ miss — under-called — late burst87d86cc9ab5580e0
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram5335104%✓ within bandc22cea3e55d1af00
2026-09-16@monsterjaminstagram27522721%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydd80b85eb5563874
2026-09-16@ediktedinstagram30941626%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb95335a1afc7b7a5
2026-09-16@jenisicecreamsinstagram63354416%✓ within band090d7c7f8d0bd8fb
2026-09-16@loftinstagram6361,30751%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5682af176acebf22
2026-09-16@johnscrazysockstiktok82945682%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5c4ef8f0a8ba961e
2026-09-16@shopluluavetiktok1,29465498%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf051d6005a2c28d8
2026-09-16@kyliecosmeticsinstagram120,775129,8987%✓ within band24b3beb9f5bf24d2
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram3,3272,41338%✗ miss — over-called — early decay81187dc590256048
2026-09-16@skimsinstagram5,7104,34731%✗ miss — over-called — early decayac240aa1a6c04442
2026-09-16@fentybeautyinstagram7,2117,6215%✓ within bandac406dc12f70e73b
2026-09-16@skincarebydrnassifinstagram51157%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2598f214ae2417c2
2026-09-16@nyxcosmeticsinstagram92273625%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4d9957991d290f0a
2026-09-16@netflixinstagram18,60512,83345%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya8445602f895cfd4
2026-09-16@maccosmeticsinstagram3,80014,17873%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5936673a2672de2e
2026-09-16@huluinstagram10,30069,08385%✗ miss — under-called — late burst453a4aac6033d3f1
2026-09-16@lysbeautyofficialinstagram19217410%✓ within band98606c3525a59892
2026-09-16@huluinstagram10,0218,88813%✓ within band5e2a19c08e0f24a2
2026-09-16@mindymaesmarketinstagram27271%✓ within band471855d86969f1b5
2026-09-16@younglainstagram10,84111,4385%✓ within bandce8c36d39a1f8269
2026-09-16@michaelkorsinstagram6766711%✓ within bande0075b8d6d3a8260
2026-09-16@stevemaddeninstagram7037516%✓ within bandafacc8a731678017
2026-09-16@nordstrominstagram9421,95852%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0142913f2786346d
2026-09-16@littlespooninstagram746613%✓ within band7f9cb3cc330ee01c
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram92966440%✗ miss — over-called — early decay81828f867a74d573
2026-09-16@innosuppsinstagram162946%✗ miss — under-called — late burst26d97aa275c0cee1
2026-09-16@japanlainstagram1,29890843%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc2901dc1250ea416
2026-09-16@livetintedinstagram1261367%✓ within band53cc3af00f063255
2026-09-16@manlybandsinstagram191526%✗ miss — over-called — early decay255814ad16ac8944
2026-09-16@glossierinstagram1,9721,70716%✓ within bandd5fc58a3959eac99
2026-09-16@gymsharkinstagram38,42033,63714%✓ within band912b3ca8550507a7
2026-09-16@makeupbymariotiktok9,9757,47833%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd1085268d83fd17e
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram1,1381,1212%✓ within band82f615e8022b0142
2026-09-16@celsiusofficialinstagram233,199158,39347%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7905c3ca5fafe2ba
2026-09-16@summerfridaysinstagram1,8473,12141%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf8ba724569d5fce2
2026-09-16@chewyinstagram9814432%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7f68fd02a55372cb
2026-09-16@jluxlabelinstagram32035911%✓ within bandc8aefe67c47fa7a7
2026-09-16@ipsyinstagram41454824%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4db81dedc2148e93
2026-09-16@revolveinstagram7677059%✓ within band589949395ef34b24
2026-09-16@mountaindewinstagram1,1391,1291%✓ within bandedf4207f6948bff8
2026-09-16@netflixinstagram22,84019,52017%✓ within bandbe321f030d806452
2026-09-16@frankiesbikinisinstagram-13,948100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4b7afa2db13d6e12
2026-09-16@themobbeautyinstagram20726923%✗ miss — under-called — late burst83d7145a651d09f5
2026-09-16@huluinstagram3,38410,17567%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9719f1d4575fd318
2026-09-16@drunkelephantinstagram23939840%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30ce4d4393ab4c01
2026-09-16@madewellinstagram35529122%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5841406c169b5c68
2026-09-16@oldspiceinstagram7310128%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf794413bdaf4222b
2026-09-16@johnscrazysocksinstagram698418%✓ within band8dd50d28aee4abee
2026-09-16@lululemoninstagram10,2095,028103%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc12641c09280266d
2026-09-16@oldspicetiktok2,2601,57643%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf5a64e5611a0b8f9
2026-09-16@maccosmeticsinstagram3,8706,67842%✗ miss — under-called — late burstebf5d09797fa27d1
2026-09-16@ediktedinstagram69561513%✓ within band5d4ab019d240e814
2026-09-16@alphaleteinstagram6116171%✓ within bandc719a4393cdaa20d
2026-09-16@newbalanceinstagram1,4271,18021%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9427a8e6c98569a6
2026-09-16@stevemaddentiktok2,2432,4488%✓ within banda58d08f62538e54d
2026-09-16@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,5341,25123%✗ miss — over-called — early decay19d7ab226c27c839
2026-09-16@huluinstagram17,47120,56615%✓ within bandae2dd95018c8f89e
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram61944041%✗ miss — over-called — early decay682ae3bb7cbc7dc1
2026-09-16@innisfreeusainstagram23219420%✓ within band55a7156f68e07ebf
2026-09-16@glowrecipeinstagram1,0741,32119%✓ within band705d39abbc0df11b
2026-09-16@elfcosmeticsinstagram3,7763,19218%✓ within bandfe2711856078733e
2026-09-16@hudabeautyinstagram20,96115,32937%✗ miss — over-called — early decay16d8db24764bda20
2026-09-16@livetintedinstagram677713%✓ within band961def62bdd29d11
2026-09-16@sephorainstagram3,2243,0127%✓ within bandcbbb5cbf7a3bb8f7
2026-09-16@charlottetilburyinstagram11,6638,72634%✗ miss — over-called — early decay35a9d7df86030444
2026-09-16@huluinstagram2,4761,65750%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4194bfb3a786a93e
2026-09-16@savagexfentyinstagram5,2745,6797%✓ within bandc5fd1f82bc72df35
2026-09-16@tower28beautyinstagram31439220%✓ within band51c41c9d544fed57
2026-09-16@nurturelifeinstagram182219%✓ within band64ae292c8474f53f
2026-09-16@rhodeinstagram40,00333,07721%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3914eaab93b5d4cf
2026-09-16@laloinstagram75762%✓ within band6f73241a495cc1c3
2026-09-16@skimsinstagram2,8371,82755%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3986f4030fae5de3
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram23819125%✗ miss — over-called — early decayad1aca68ddd9e8d6
2026-09-16@drinkolipopinstagram4,8543,06958%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc7702bc682f348d4
2026-09-16@mollyjewelryusinstagram1,0191,1138%✓ within band450597dddc1d0db4
2026-09-16@josiemarantiktok4,7132,253109%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybbff1e177ddd6e02
2026-09-16@revolveinstagram62353516%✓ within band5a868fa8366aa601
2026-09-16@nzxtinstagram3713671%✓ within bandcebe99897c11bb75
2026-09-16@vuoriclothinginstagram59847725%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye7c59185053d0914
2026-09-16@abercrombieinstagram6575,35288%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2a2c40370f734914
2026-09-16@vuoriclothingtiktok2,7762,5838%✓ within band18ff9c9c057847f0
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram72458923%✗ miss — over-called — early decay677eec5580c91fcd
2026-09-16@josiemaraninstagram68858218%✓ within band7a9b75aa059cfdab
2026-09-16@netflixinstagram424,676322,35332%✗ miss — over-called — early decay583c76e168ae8a39
2026-09-16@meshkiinstagram92679117%✓ within band900496b45e1650ef
2026-09-16@princesspollyinstagram2,5043,23723%✗ miss — under-called — late burst07567b758357fe23
2026-09-16@fashionnovainstagram8829497%✓ within bandde34389630ef0491

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.