Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5698)
1760 / 5698within 20% of actual (31%)
7787open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 35% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13536

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-18@ipsyinstagram95564548%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2638bdf2189734f
2026-09-18@ghostlifestyleinstagram54481533%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1eefb68d291f8d86
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram1,2751,69325%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc648ad03b7dabbd1
2026-09-18@jenisicecreamsinstagram30537018%✓ within bandb2d80b4a23923a51
2026-09-18@skincarebydrnassifinstagram241741%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2b5b44b7ec462732
2026-09-18@liquidivinstagram786520%✗ miss — over-called — early decay600853ea786721d5
2026-09-18@theordinaryinstagram4304280%✓ within band6b46c38a331ba75b
2026-09-18@drunkelephantinstagram28832913%✓ within banddc634329cbb24948
2026-09-18@gfuelenergyinstagram21126019%✓ within band1161b64f616480ac
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram56,10255,5621%✓ within band1749a61fe8610162
2026-09-18@huluinstagram7,3645,72629%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf8dda4c8554602bb
2026-09-18@younglainstagram11,0839,17221%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2567bb7a7cc8beee
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram107,14463,01470%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a68fc7aaf7c974c
2026-09-18@savagexfentyinstagram1,6861,49413%✓ within bandd6e870ea9c56f8c8
2026-09-18@nurturelifeinstagram3710866%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcea5b8214ca2334f
2026-09-18@glossierinstagram1,9612,42019%✓ within band7333cee22ff67abc
2026-09-18@tower28beautytiktok4,3492,23495%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1b1eb2790b6b07fd
2026-09-18@nyxcosmeticsinstagram54072726%✗ miss — under-called — late burste6c9c443d1c0f880
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram8195,50385%✗ miss — under-called — late burst59aaf21dd718ebbd
2026-09-18@sephorainstagram2,3622,1888%✓ within band9b0f27c51fad3e3c
2026-09-18@revolveinstagram35045323%✗ miss — under-called — late burst524d7693aa4ee07f
2026-09-18@gymsharkinstagram41,37361,65633%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2a8c47f7e0825e34
2026-09-18@skimsinstagram1,6842,56434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst12b3d550c7681e79
2026-09-18@fentybeautyinstagram6,6516,1039%✓ within band3c01678ae3f356e3
2026-09-18@redbullinstagram12,38619,90338%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2f1ff3f37fe2c7e7
2026-09-18@summerfridaystiktok7,0564,12071%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf5f4bb60739ff288
2026-09-18@urbanoutfittersinstagram4482,24880%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0823bbc5660b7968
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram94,015228,79659%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0641c04c5af7390d
2026-09-18@drinkolipopinstagram1,5382,89447%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4ceaac48ccb99c7
2026-09-18@neweracapinstagram61476420%✓ within band1634b6a922d86db7
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram1,4671,71815%✓ within band64f1bc52b8ccff8a
2026-09-18@cocacolainstagram3,1822,9876%✓ within band0af11c6839840a1a
2026-09-18@doritosinstagram27022023%✗ miss — over-called — early decay29bb49b1a55bd19d
2026-09-18@newegginstagram322718%✓ within bandcf1efb99bf6a639f
2026-09-18@ghostlifestyleinstagram88770726%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydcd853e9e9d41601
2026-09-18@crumblinstagram15,05724,25338%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf86ab1d578e2a422
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram122,505373,38467%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6431c8c5b8c7bf0f
2026-09-18@joyluxincinstagram5,294834535%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4b481f0a234efdb1
2026-09-18@mountaindewinstagram86070522%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3de36292fb9911db
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram66,28361,1398%✓ within bandef6597d7be49b017
2026-09-18@impactmouthguardsinstagram111419%✓ within band8a8240c6ad6471b2
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram69047645%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2484ffe37ce9081c
2026-09-18@ediktedinstagram1,22589737%✗ miss — over-called — early decay34698762ba8ac8cf
2026-09-18@neweggtiktok1,24985546%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9f3127adf97cb9e7
2026-09-18@itjustworkswellnesstiktok93974%✓ within bandf7774ef8fe428f6f
2026-09-18@michaelkorsinstagram57773421%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta30434a0c2163cb3
2026-09-18@ipsyinstagram1,1034,33274%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc207e93fd92d72db
2026-09-18@maybellineinstagram21,22114,63745%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfab864e69f0e8a13
2026-09-18@mollyjewelryusinstagram31123632%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1814343e9a5df5e3
2026-09-18@impactmouthguardsinstagram32320%✓ within bandc1c687c38c2c5256
2026-09-18@nyxcosmeticsinstagram8609328%✓ within band7c177b7bd93cf9f2
2026-09-18@glowrecipeinstagram9521,06911%✓ within band169d8c2dca0bf6fd
2026-09-18@livetintedinstagram647212%✓ within bandce3f620d6436b519
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram10,82512,51914%✓ within band60c74cfb1ecfb68d
2026-09-18@garnierusainstagram8810314%✓ within bandb1eca7d8b36b9c69
2026-09-18@starbucksinstagram63,08632,09796%✗ miss — over-called — early decayca9e7d32cfce06bf
2026-09-18@rarebeautyinstagram10,1919,15611%✓ within bandf046f6a756ea9b7d
2026-09-18@mindymaesmarketinstagram366645%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta7efb3a0ccf4c322
2026-09-18@rhodeinstagram367,797372,2761%✓ within band8895334e3c6540a1
2026-09-18@summerfridaysinstagram9,32414,06534%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3b1d594ade39d32e
2026-09-18@skimsinstagram7,25012,35841%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0be7faf3b270e564
2026-09-18@rarebeautyinstagram18,40521,48814%✓ within band8a5d0848aea4687e
2026-09-18@elfcosmeticsinstagram22,63432,51930%✗ miss — under-called — late burst27db04633f8bb3d6
2026-09-18@longchamptiktok4,5432,61574%✗ miss — over-called — early decay02d9c732570df7fb
2026-09-18@glowrecipetiktok14,05419,00026%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc92a0dc5c4b05f3d
2026-09-18@huluinstagram1,1274,39474%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9166f285f95721f5
2026-09-18@theordinaryinstagram19926525%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta812db102b4d69d1
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram4,7096,89732%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb05b70407fb70717
2026-09-18@sephorainstagram1,5021,09337%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb4ee1749f22b67c1
2026-09-18@ipsyinstagram2465,95596%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5cacf713613adfb9
2026-09-18@nudestixinstagram2182037%✓ within band38b73aafb0f357be
2026-09-18@younglainstagram10,50710,5671%✓ within bandb7980cba2640696e
2026-09-18@charlottetilburyinstagram4,86612,35861%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb0934dba40819ff9
2026-09-18@savagexfentyinstagram1,3306,49280%✗ miss — under-called — late burst54f0b35bd4f88aad
2026-09-18@neomwellbeinginstagram76718%✓ within banda663a441877fed8a
2026-09-18@mysmileinstagram36372%✓ within band5a64043856398b4d
2026-09-18@chewytiktok1,5061,3918%✓ within band4b713c8f6ac03097
2026-09-18@athleticbrewingtiktok2,4001,74138%✗ miss — over-called — early decay265047f8536422ce
2026-09-18@jimmychootiktok1,7784,51661%✗ miss — under-called — late burst280269f3e77ed28b
2026-09-18@huluinstagram39,09623,15469%✗ miss — over-called — early decay13e21d984d1b6b43
2026-09-18@johnscrazysocksinstagram9210513%✓ within band829957f969cd1199
2026-09-18@michaelkorsinstagram1,6401,7074%✓ within band8a795dc8af75092d
2026-09-18@celsiusofficialtiktok2,2741,71533%✗ miss — over-called — early decay181fbf34f57cc574
2026-09-18@marykayusinstagram6266605%✓ within band27a5789ff53c0731
2026-09-18@jockofuelinstagram1131049%✓ within bandac810e28d3a6ed27
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram4284231%✓ within band60975939975de119
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram1361249%✓ within bandd437621db7fa324d
2026-09-18@jimmychooinstagram1,2332,21544%✗ miss — under-called — late burst19707f2020932fb9
2026-09-18@redbullinstagram217,670348,75838%✗ miss — under-called — late burst495d18cb6e0091f4
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram11715826%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1c6611863d91cc8d
2026-09-18@maisonkitsuneinstagram29426113%✓ within bandd1e85553a7b0ed22
2026-09-18@charlottetilburyinstagram4,4884,5932%✓ within band294925e696779095
2026-09-18@macrobabyinstagram191087%✗ miss — over-called — early decay670acb03c66a69ea
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram1,6611,5318%✓ within band774c947839d00b7a
2026-09-18@andotherstoriesinstagram20016025%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydd34b277a99e81af
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram74,10652,26242%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye7b50b6aab9d7040
2026-09-18@maisondesabreinstagram01,446100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst70eb04c6224bd5fb
2026-09-18@lolasaratogainstagram795934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9cb826af74607402
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram1,1761,92939%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8eb5950509ba7b09
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram204,100139,52946%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd917f294030654f4

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.