Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7487)
2496 / 7487within 20% of actual (33%)
8480open bets resolving at 72h
176public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 16005

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-28@revolveinstagram53162315%✓ within banddf7f4ff2450f18d3
2026-09-28@glowrecipeinstagram30637819%✓ within band5df95e42bca38ba7
2026-09-28@chewyinstagram7914847%✗ miss — under-called — late burst45037a534fea1732
2026-09-28@rarebeautyinstagram8,9188,7722%✓ within bandc632f18b793c5f25
2026-09-28@nyxcosmeticsinstagram6611,29349%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd323fa4351de5b0f
2026-09-28@huluinstagram6932,49572%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9797ca4ea735073b
2026-09-28@lulusinstagram26783968%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e2aee6b39acc42a
2026-09-28@ghostlifestyleinstagram3223385%✓ within bandc08c2f384e613c83
2026-09-28@lysbeautyofficialinstagram17566574%✗ miss — under-called — late burstefab598807e26ae7
2026-09-28@makeupbymarioinstagram8,42214,73343%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2dbb3caf9a2977f7
2026-09-28@macrobabyinstagram4722116%✗ miss — over-called — early decayae3a8c6d8c1a4b5b
2026-09-28@innosuppsinstagram25263%✓ within band9132cc9e9cc9233c
2026-09-28@alphaleteinstagram45262728%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc3ce0f454c1c0633
2026-09-28@maybellineinstagram9,30948,33981%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8ccb08a1044a5b42
2026-09-28@eatmaxjerkyinstagram153558%✗ miss — under-called — late burst90a7034d9059b1c1
2026-09-28@theordinaryinstagram22828520%✗ miss — under-called — late burst944de0b9acaa6815
2026-09-28@gfuelenergyinstagram1158338%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya50b738010217cd8
2026-09-28@princesspollyinstagram1,4803,07652%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2d63bff0893e0ba6
2026-09-28@liquiddeathinstagram35,29632,9517%✓ within bandab88fb9de84a2641
2026-09-28@shopluluaveinstagram5511853%✗ miss — under-called — late burst68300fa46ff3db81
2026-09-28@manlybandsinstagram16189%✓ within bandedc3958db7dea3a3
2026-09-28@netflixinstagram31,94866,28952%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2410782d702ead60
2026-09-28@stevemaddeninstagram1,1791,79634%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc9bc15e7b4cc4469
2026-09-28@michaelkorsinstagram9021,43937%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta6fc5083deadac2a
2026-09-28@nyxcosmeticsinstagram6061,29353%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfe3ef96747f5019f
2026-09-28@ghostlifestyleinstagram39149421%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5957349ff19ef85a
2026-09-28@michaelkorstiktok5,8106,97517%✓ within band8dc503074bfebf12
2026-09-28@fashionnovainstagram1,3151,87530%✗ miss — under-called — late burst80ce0a355f91eb21
2026-09-28@myloralsinstagram674356%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc38e1d74f5041822
2026-09-28@jcatbeautyinstagram161915%✓ within banda4e1b09f90366bc0
2026-09-28@mythicalinstagram36,33082,59956%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcd7efda349fc4b07
2026-09-28@ourplaceinstagram2192171%✓ within band05bd068ce6301687
2026-09-28@athleticbrewinginstagram15917610%✓ within bandfceefc32ca182a0f
2026-09-28@lovingtanofficialinstagram1,16360692%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf1be65b8b09e267b
2026-09-28@netflixinstagram10,92426,81259%✗ miss — under-called — late burst676841246c4f450a
2026-09-28@mindymaesmarkettiktok2729591%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4f6ad54ba8d677fd
2026-09-28@freepeopletiktok1,4763,60859%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd67ba04b7ad080f1
2026-09-28@japanlainstagram529344%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta64b23c62c0a8c06
2026-09-28@marykayusinstagram23520117%✓ within band1961fdd5a0b5bf71
2026-09-28@neweracapinstagram9378886%✓ within band9eb446b5fbd26aad
2026-09-28@mollyjewelryusinstagram1851850%✓ within band7ae82a213a3979ea
2026-09-28@livetintedinstagram4812862%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd5de63b5fd035c9a
2026-09-28@nordstrominstagram1,6873,71255%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30f646c14c6f5de2
2026-09-28@vuoriclothinginstagram2,8901,83557%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4590b04d3cfddf61
2026-09-28@lucidmotorstiktok9532,01053%✗ miss — under-called — late burst99f56d1cae33abc7
2026-09-28@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,1231,0754%✓ within band46cb7f6fc948fdb3
2026-09-28@netflixinstagram10,82030,44464%✗ miss — under-called — late burst33c2bb0ff44d565a
2026-09-28@bandaidbrandinstagram64456214%✓ within band5c4d47088dfd63c4
2026-09-28@ediktedinstagram40660533%✗ miss — under-called — late burstccb9e7f1808a7be1
2026-09-28@crumblinstagram14,97612,64018%✓ within band558aa3a3e929d13d
2026-09-28@nzxtinstagram21826518%✓ within band8d91c81cf61caccc
2026-09-28@justfabonlineinstagram517229%✗ miss — under-called — late burst255564da7265a9b4
2026-09-28@mackweldoninstagram1,5971,5582%✓ within band39552c3029ab0120
2026-09-28@drunkelephantinstagram15217714%✓ within bandadf3e66f1e1f7465
2026-09-28@fentybeautyinstagram7,8126,16127%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55176d7fbdb79737
2026-09-28@littlespooninstagram1791811%✓ within band2ca9d9a4aaec4f93
2026-09-28@michaelkorsinstagram1,3601,21112%✓ within band44f4c79da4b3a24e
2026-09-28@ipsyinstagram9414334%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta935915be3a6ef88
2026-09-28@charlottetilburyinstagram5,0346,23719%✓ within band669dc09c65b0ff54
2026-09-28@themobbeautytiktok1,093417162%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5ca658af83fc7def
2026-09-28@louisvuittontiktok19,75231,60038%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc5dfbfb544e04cc2
2026-09-28@gilletteinstagram1661557%✓ within band23e99279ec2608bc
2026-09-28@naturopathicatiktok23518825%✗ miss — over-called — early decayda5a2642cb60dbab
2026-09-28@themobbeautyinstagram10512214%✓ within bandb31f78750a965d8f
2026-09-28@frankiesbikinisinstagram3,2096,58451%✗ miss — under-called — late burst228c3d1c21f3413d
2026-09-28@madhappyinstagram02,406100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst275c0a9fc8870b01
2026-09-28@nudestixinstagram244648%✗ miss — under-called — late burst68e73dc853414855
2026-09-28@itjustworkswellnesstiktok1557798%✗ miss — under-called — late burste3d8c5510498dd81
2026-09-28@fashionnovainstagram7417623%✓ within band61d2dbfe11b5c5ea
2026-09-28@huluinstagram2,2426,86767%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc7a61d8fa8cf9f62
2026-09-28@neweracapinstagram1,2551,07317%✓ within band183a36664dd51315
2026-09-28@louisvuittoninstagram14,24416,17612%✓ within band6099844a4b6e7668
2026-09-28@marykayusinstagram4644997%✓ within band99be321a28be6d48
2026-09-28@lululemoninstagram3,0082,65313%✓ within bandb3283bd53df33553
2026-09-28@skimsinstagram4,5003,50928%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd9f20edd1b9c85d2
2026-09-28@theordinaryinstagram69295928%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta74f0a8ebaa90e8e
2026-09-28@liquiddeathinstagram35,63830,43817%✓ within band1f6e875797f78775
2026-09-28@elfcosmeticsinstagram5,0602,89675%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc6fd36ebaf2ee5b4
2026-09-28@sephorainstagram21,33642,23350%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3b60c7100ca1e3ef
2026-09-28@mindymaesmarketinstagram413421%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9ceb7fa27fab03d3
2026-09-28@summerfridaystiktok4,5653,32537%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydc7a73d944ffb03d
2026-09-28@humnutritioninstagram193038%✗ miss — under-called — late burst95a53c4657efba3e
2026-09-28@joyluxinctiktok3195,95595%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbd2a66469a926791
2026-09-28@josiemarantiktok1,06282329%✗ miss — over-called — early decay760136afc1b232b2
2026-09-28@hotmiamistylesinstagram23242145%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc096500b9d68e8c7
2026-09-28@redbullinstagram39,33539,3620%✓ within band62868652e2bd8e01
2026-09-28@netflixinstagram19,78839,97150%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb05c37282a208850
2026-09-28@littlespooninstagram96869539%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc2568843be823b71
2026-09-28@josiemaraninstagram20224718%✓ within banddc7cd37c211a2ec2
2026-09-28@maseratiinstagram15,73619,93521%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2b299a121cc3f912
2026-09-28@gymsharkinstagram161,064168,8715%✓ within band7d0370880db11c47
2026-09-28@celsiusofficialinstagram2,18217,48588%✗ miss — under-called — late burst00a2b553d123cc0b
2026-09-28@myloralsinstagram38372%✓ within bande4cd03fddf591bc0
2026-09-28@duolingoinstagram32,92838,94415%✓ within bandc71f5322a45b4cfc
2026-09-28@naircareinstagram805157%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf86eab5f650ab5d6
2026-09-28@andotherstoriesinstagram4414351%✓ within band4667bc53ff749267
2026-09-28@nudestixtiktok94066442%✗ miss — over-called — early decay05f123603d5c9cf2
2026-09-28@neweracapinstagram2,1412,70821%✗ miss — under-called — late burst36900f4f4df4bc86
2026-09-28@abercrombieinstagram1,3481,10822%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2a57095f4af1f695
2026-09-28@louisvuittontiktok43,68218,900131%✗ miss — over-called — early decay77c136f639dc1ae8

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.