Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7359)
2445 / 7359within 20% of actual (33%)
8468open bets resolving at 72h
176public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15869

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-28@fashionnovainstagram1,2592,44548%✗ miss — under-called — late burst23d9b87054cf214c
2026-09-28@ediktedinstagram38379652%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9290c4d43fe9c845
2026-09-28@nzxtinstagram22219713%✓ within bandfaf1af0b6b12ea70
2026-09-28@mollyjewelryusinstagram57119,63897%✗ miss — under-called — late burstebcd0cbd178f0abb
2026-09-28@mayorgacoffeeinstagram66627%✓ within band71848fa714db5c73
2026-09-28@fashionnovainstagram5631,11850%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf01381029ed95c43
2026-09-28@princesspollyinstagram28424018%✓ within bande2065eb9669104c1
2026-09-28@manlybandsinstagram191438%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7dbed729860bcd33
2026-09-28@stevemaddeninstagram37745217%✓ within band5a2ea8d24422b3d3
2026-09-28@oldspiceinstagram4,1153,43020%✓ within band4db03b0d6a4dcb2a
2026-09-28@princesspollyinstagram3023030%✓ within band48560af15504cdea
2026-09-28@mindymaesmarketinstagram364214%✓ within band22f2000683fa07a6
2026-09-28@ediktedinstagram3894054%✓ within band9c8f33e0c45692b9
2026-09-28@huluinstagram26862857%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb58f53bb09b6c798
2026-09-28@macrobabyinstagram3114122%✗ miss — over-called — early decayce19264c4cdfeb77
2026-09-28@mountaindewinstagram1,3441,04628%✗ miss — over-called — early decay88146f99760eae7d
2026-09-28@meshkiinstagram9781,17016%✓ within band2273a64dcaf34b80
2026-09-27@humnutritiontiktok46526973%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1524f0862dfa4949
2026-09-27@vuoriclothinginstagram1,05484225%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfb6f99655734abbf
2026-09-27@humnutritioninstagram131930%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc685e45330e1fbff
2026-09-27@johnscrazysocksinstagram18211361%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4eb48d5f1b9089ad
2026-09-27@nzxtinstagram1561542%✓ within bande68397e99e75f721
2026-09-27@nzxtinstagram39150222%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5036a372a7744d1d
2026-09-27@huluinstagram9,54613,18728%✗ miss — under-called — late burst708dbc3f3cee54cc
2026-09-27@josiemaraninstagram21425416%✓ within band9f9e5cbf54e50b52
2026-09-27@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,3512,59448%✗ miss — under-called — late burst618c4b4e7c86b071
2026-09-27@jluxlabelinstagram5335605%✓ within bandc1436b88c7308d79
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram58776623%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd2614cf705dc2906
2026-09-27@tower28beautyinstagram36750627%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdb3a52ed186c534f
2026-09-27@casetifyinstagram6,0588,64530%✗ miss — under-called — late burst41ac6a3c7f415cc8
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram3413574%✓ within band984dfbae0e997a5b
2026-09-27@sephorainstagram4,7136,90932%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta28dfc0df7955025
2026-09-27@ritualtiktok1,09233,90097%✗ miss — under-called — late burst661961c5cd669f3f
2026-09-27@shopluluaveinstagram644444%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc2d97cf6a41c0080
2026-09-27@midinmodinstagram6387%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye7e6dcfccd9b9286
2026-09-27@huluinstagram1,9428,54077%✗ miss — under-called — late burst194eccb73e7991ed
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram21,83524,24910%✓ within band46f7638ff5c6a24f
2026-09-27@manlybandsinstagram6113154%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0e6dee59e6412dde
2026-09-27@loftinstagram2,6682,7473%✓ within band79293be733674356
2026-09-27@ediktedinstagram35261843%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5a214e51781db77e
2026-09-27@milkmakeupinstagram37752027%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbe142f25503aace4
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram2002011%✓ within bandfa927b30264782d3
2026-09-27@glossierinstagram3,2132,60723%✗ miss — over-called — early decay165e615d7d176490
2026-09-27@midinmodtiktok8213439%✗ miss — under-called — late burst319ef79eb754b1dc
2026-09-27@summerfridaystiktok7,4903,92891%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf674359b5891bfc6
2026-09-27@gilletteinstagram1058228%✗ miss — over-called — early decay07e1e2288909c806
2026-09-27@marykayusinstagram6026223%✓ within band4e75f9cf42bf83b3
2026-09-27@japanlainstagram36331316%✓ within band6b01835f6580a939
2026-09-27@nelliesfreerangeinstagram11919%✓ within bandfe69ac9a492aa4cc
2026-09-27@skincarebydrnassifinstagram12132763%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1be59f4af1812c5f
2026-09-27@fentybeautyinstagram3,3803,01712%✓ within band8077488550845ebd
2026-09-27@jluxlabelinstagram1,1032,58957%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1bd6845801a56a09
2026-09-27@duolingoinstagram159,742101,81857%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycbfb6ccd40b64d74
2026-09-27@oldspiceinstagram849410%✓ within band7750c1916efc9370
2026-09-27@nelliesfreerangetiktok68739972%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3678a259c74bec1f
2026-09-27@itjustworkswellnesstiktok376142164%✗ miss — over-called — early decay87aecc1618e52c46
2026-09-27@abercrombieinstagram9679106%✓ within bandc47745b3b6af0dae
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1151132%✓ within band4b8d38883d1ae829
2026-09-27@younglatiktok58,07148,00021%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1838ecd5b7bed11c
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram37465243%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f4cc3059808d96b
2026-09-27@cleanandclearinstagram232921%✗ miss — under-called — late burste99b752dbc58223e
2026-09-27@starbuckstiktok39,986505,10092%✗ miss — under-called — late burst83c888a477aa2964
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram18,07138,57653%✗ miss — under-called — late burst58035b22fa8ec8e5
2026-09-27@huluinstagram8,938145,02694%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd574142a9f5aba6d
2026-09-27@huluinstagram24,33236,36533%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcc2764d42349517d
2026-09-27@savagexfentyinstagram17,52815,60512%✓ within bandcfc37ce4bd8f5d1f
2026-09-27@jcatbeautyinstagram13145%✓ within band6b9ff7823f436ac5
2026-09-27@lululemoninstagram1,7591,7143%✓ within band244e9262cf4b6dc0
2026-09-27@younglainstagram8,3106,14035%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybacdbca0f4d99ee8
2026-09-27@sephorainstagram1,3641,53611%✓ within bandb273aa654c952d09
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram70288921%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6ea6e6c83fb9b382
2026-09-27@drinkolipopinstagram62341750%✗ miss — over-called — early decay686730a142a46f31
2026-09-27@charlottetilburyinstagram5,30810,68950%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30f91340019e0374
2026-09-27@kyliecosmeticstiktok26,53310,500153%✗ miss — over-called — early decayca6d44fe84a86f40
2026-09-27@nyxcosmeticsinstagram54773526%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta6a1e8a3ecdfe25e
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram7292,50771%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbf76ae75f8efb4a7
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram2472326%✓ within band18d598ddbeb4bf9f
2026-09-27@crumblinstagram5,6187,44625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst977260997191b652
2026-09-27@ghostlifestyleinstagram6676782%✓ within banda81be031d7be45be
2026-09-27@rarebeautyinstagram5,7375,01414%✓ within bandd1e20eb6e824069b
2026-09-27@fentybeautyinstagram21,68526,13417%✓ within band6c118b7481ba1d8e
2026-09-27@gymsharkinstagram9,11313,18931%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4e682668f808450f
2026-09-27@chewyinstagram20124618%✓ within bande8050cb756ae81db
2026-09-27@maccosmeticsinstagram2,6534,37939%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdffd8d4d1ae0765f
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram28,03134,16518%✓ within band533dfa8bc7b1613b
2026-09-27@huluinstagram1,85410,87583%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfc6203109dfec5f5
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram16,32515,9143%✓ within band5a6adfca4b25e589
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram16514613%✓ within band16e8f7df6f28305d
2026-09-27@japanlainstagram14721832%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30ef3fda963d0269
2026-09-27@ipsyinstagram14810837%✗ miss — over-called — early decay170cced67263d1d1
2026-09-27@newegginstagram829716%✓ within bande382f5ac23252a83
2026-09-27@mysmileinstagram84806%✓ within band51d9c0b0f654192a
2026-09-27@chipotleinstagram24,62226,1356%✓ within band788cf83b4502861a
2026-09-27@itjustworkswellnessinstagram4956%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6ebde97c7ab87600
2026-09-27@michaelkorsinstagram1,5081,20026%✗ miss — over-called — early decay042b7be98a4ed616
2026-09-27@stevemaddeninstagram3654019%✓ within bandb3628fd1cd0b9130
2026-09-27@fentybeautyinstagram6602,46573%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2494558268eaa677
2026-09-27@naircareinstagram2,0651,88010%✓ within band4092996c9573b586
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram2772674%✓ within band4780afdbdc60f059
2026-09-27@glowrecipetiktok35,29839,50011%✓ within band16c9fd985830cae8

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.