Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=4190)
1166 / 4190within 20% of actual (28%)
5767open bets resolving at 72h
171public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 39% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v2 · n_locked total: 9959

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-07@loftinstagram2,5358,52470%✗ miss — under-called — late burst94cae10851f9f8b9
2026-09-07@luvmehairinstagram14418422%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1045fe31107bb0b1
2026-09-07@vitacocoinstagram746612%✓ within bandf0a23e10b235cb00
2026-09-07@vitacocotiktok5,2162,547105%✗ miss — over-called — early decayff39987c32962031
2026-09-07@mayorgacoffeeinstagram23230%✓ within bandaa2efe2c945882f9
2026-09-07@duolingoinstagram11,381108,36690%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3799d03a00a4a17a
2026-09-07@ipsyinstagram99279525%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfbb74c251a2c3484
2026-09-07@macrobabyinstagram61246%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8ac3873de16fce8d
2026-09-07@nurturelifeinstagram122653%✗ miss — under-called — late burst50e75e43ebe91334
2026-09-07@duolingotiktok3,675,1731,800,000104%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye2809b865d2d7cdd
2026-09-07@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,4821,87621%✗ miss — under-called — late burst77b24c39687c82bc
2026-09-07@aloyogainstagram2,2402,4238%✓ within band3a4c94c34090a713
2026-09-07@josiemaraninstagram32550836%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2dd0f2652e7137cd
2026-09-07@itjustworkswellnesstiktok1269927%✗ miss — over-called — early decayef2c6fb5ae3e9a9a
2026-09-07@naircaretiktok62235376%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd838510650e5d321
2026-09-07@nzxtinstagram637213%✓ within band1ab65ec532af1206
2026-09-07@magicspooncerealtiktok27915778%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3271b578da2a6cd7
2026-09-07@ghostlifestyleinstagram75584411%✓ within band8a470f2a6c6d14bc
2026-09-07@justfabonlineinstagram19638549%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7001766447782533
2026-09-07@urbanoutfittersinstagram69153330%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydb023c5499409f30
2026-09-07@milkmakeupinstagram24917741%✗ miss — over-called — early decay77798ac1def480b8
2026-09-07@duolingoinstagram101,883189,73646%✗ miss — under-called — late burst80ba423991876c06
2026-09-07@jcatbeautyinstagram9108%✓ within band156086c0cb3112af
2026-09-07@gfuelenergyinstagram62620%✓ within band3c3ba26317c616fb
2026-09-07@mysmileinstagram1373%✗ miss — under-called — late burst79759fea0bc4f00d
2026-09-07@drinkolipopinstagram82369119%✓ within band7d9d9916deabb7da
2026-09-07@drunkelephantinstagram47826382%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaff63777cffd58ab
2026-09-07@vitacocotiktok1,1961,01318%✓ within band43bb0d67835522da
2026-09-07@savagexfentyinstagram3503403%✓ within band7c88016dac0b45e0
2026-09-07@gfuelenergyinstagram1,4292,80649%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta8ebcf30e3fc07ea
2026-09-07@cleanandclearinstagram2510148%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf93f8f05dfe3c960
2026-09-07@ghostlifestyleinstagram2,2282,2091%✓ within band5d1ebbaf3904a379
2026-09-07@manlybandsinstagram415829%✗ miss — under-called — late burst068fb5d615828ea7
2026-09-07@myloralsinstagram254848%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfc4afa02bab59c46
2026-09-07@nzxtinstagram25151151%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9ec3a34ab2dbb27e
2026-09-07@younglainstagram31,50532,7684%✓ within band2e23614edf052241
2026-09-07@mythicalinstagram9,1389,2581%✓ within band359d1b5a38ba27a6
2026-09-07@gymsharkinstagram12,68510,83517%✓ within bandb65a5c6f444a325d
2026-09-07@loomwellinstagram29446637%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6529527d0681e3dd
2026-09-07@longchampinstagram1,66511,52786%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf8f8750818d13b50
2026-09-07@nudestixtiktok2,6361,34196%✗ miss — over-called — early decay494ce7cb4015a275
2026-09-07@littlespoontiktok1,056506109%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8f4d3ddf309b08b5
2026-09-07@bandaidbrandinstagram222820%✓ within bandb5589074f3639953
2026-09-07@crumblinstagram5,8594,61827%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3873d3dfa0c44c35
2026-09-07@ghostlifestyleinstagram1,6081,6251%✓ within band91c9093f2e352ccb
2026-09-07@glossierinstagram2,7632,6992%✓ within band417c98ffa86abdc6
2026-09-07@kyliecosmeticsinstagram2,0852,68022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0a12b4294a707596
2026-09-07@fentybeautyinstagram42,61551,19417%✓ within band5048608e0cb7a3f0
2026-09-07@fentybeautyinstagram44,47243,7882%✓ within bandd376532f160916b8
2026-09-07@luxurybazaartiktok3,2921,399135%✗ miss — over-called — early decay445ec0a960b0f4cf
2026-09-07@maseratitiktok12,4125,373131%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1784f36f88a51621
2026-09-07@celsiusofficialtiktok3,6192,800,000100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst21f055d3caf4b3d3
2026-09-07@newbalancetiktok8,54712,90034%✗ miss — under-called — late burst42d888f5be01be8f
2026-09-07@urbanoutfittersinstagram3,2463,2811%✓ within bande1b4b931a54a33b9
2026-09-07@mynufaceinstagram162433%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf60482e4c45a55a0
2026-09-07@stevemaddeninstagram44651213%✓ within bandbcae22d30b385b7e
2026-09-07@janeiredaletiktok35420771%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9b65df2e57091d31
2026-09-07@naturopathicatiktok21418913%✓ within band6baab7e0450a335c
2026-09-07@theordinarytiktok44,30418,000146%✗ miss — over-called — early decay8d4ac46826006acb
2026-09-07@humnutritiontiktok22112774%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2cb1b6aa2b9a3277
2026-09-07@joyluxinctiktok612297106%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc2eb9245786244c7
2026-09-07@ogx_beautyinstagram5686178%✓ within band2f7212c9ecea264a
2026-09-07@lysbeautyofficialinstagram1211155%✓ within bandb2b6450b308821d0
2026-09-07@gatoradeinstagram7971,19033%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1681672970b68711
2026-09-07@mountaindewinstagram3,8514,1537%✓ within band32d4aca438328e34
2026-09-07@olaytiktok6096161%✓ within band5c6f1837a991b352
2026-09-07@myloralstiktok28635820%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3dd154f68bf1bf27
2026-09-07@mountaindewtiktok9,2527,45224%✗ miss — over-called — early decay80af5a34aa4bb7ac
2026-09-07@innisfreeusatiktok663,53498%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8b836ef20249236c
2026-09-07@glowrecipeinstagram8151,04022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst70eee2902cc70066
2026-09-07@savagexfentyinstagram63748830%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3be1886e68073919
2026-09-07@rhodeinstagram55,12173,81625%✗ miss — under-called — late burste270bbcc545170db
2026-09-07@liquidivinstagram8920256%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfd8f7b213ffd75de
2026-09-07@summerfridaysinstagram31,68235,38310%✓ within bandfb6888395ec2e96b
2026-09-07@newegginstagram171912%✓ within band2007e9adc513ab59
2026-09-07@joyluxincinstagram1172998%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf6b166e2a8af1655
2026-09-07@skimsinstagram4,6025,16311%✓ within band92b563b0abe303a1
2026-09-07@fentybeautyinstagram176,470212,15217%✓ within band711b441f55b61e8b
2026-09-07@rarebeautyinstagram17,22328,70640%✗ miss — under-called — late burst89689a56eb13bb85
2026-09-07@mindymaesmarketinstagram336046%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8567b3d6300acc96
2026-09-07@jluxlabelinstagram1902026%✓ within bandf564181590f3ef8d
2026-09-07@milkmakeupinstagram66648537%✗ miss — over-called — early decay590dfaa2cb1856e3
2026-09-07@tower28beautyinstagram27924016%✓ within banda04ab2e69a2e58f3
2026-09-07@ipsyinstagram1161160%✓ within bandd5077e16f5fe69cf
2026-09-07@mythicalinstagram108,142111,6773%✓ within bandd8d25bbdbe1e8306
2026-09-07@hotmiamistylesinstagram13116420%✓ within banda7d2953a6b1b13d2
2026-09-07@milkmakeupinstagram39822378%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4fd3e6bdbe17284e
2026-09-07@newbalanceinstagram22,67018,02826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay03c53e227c5b6c97
2026-09-07@jockofuelinstagram1,4726,73478%✗ miss — under-called — late burst01723ab58bc19d86
2026-09-07@marykayusinstagram6415889%✓ within banded4554c684047abb
2026-09-07@vuoriclothinginstagram12,01210,9949%✓ within band10ee7419d290eb64
2026-09-07@laloinstagram16314414%✓ within band7bb84b8ca174faa7
2026-09-07@doritosinstagram3833861%✓ within band1caedb1eb8d8d50b
2026-09-07@janeiredaleinstagram94940%✓ within bandd53262fe49bf81de
2026-09-07@doritostiktok12,5428,07255%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1748b54f09b4c718
2026-09-07@madewellinstagram7478199%✓ within band64c9fdb98ce5b920
2026-09-07@mindymaesmarkettiktok33817396%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb3ed6aef716f43fd
2026-09-07@gatoradeinstagram1921901%✓ within banddd8cf1ec7c5c4045
2026-09-07@longchampinstagram1,10610,63190%✗ miss — under-called — late burste1f2721ee4490dd2
2026-09-07@maseratiinstagram15,52017,28110%✓ within bandfd8d6abec3777180

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
2026-07-05 17:10@rarebeautyinstagram43,299resolves in ~0h34ed4ec29da2db30
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram2,097resolves in ~0h32d5716c943ca608
2026-07-05 20:24@fashionnovainstagram386resolves in ~0h4c3a73df07f73467
2026-07-05 21:53@skimsinstagram1,732resolves in ~0h760b3825df0a7f45
2026-07-05 22:56@fashionnovainstagram294resolves in ~0ha339e6d16c5c8d49
2026-07-06 01:27@crumblinstagram19,627resolves in ~0hce7c36036b510bf9
2026-07-06 01:52@fashionnovainstagram337resolves in ~0h1a1c2961937ff548
2026-07-06 01:52@younglainstagram1,459resolves in ~0hedfb22c881df24ec
2026-07-06 03:52@fashionnovainstagram172resolves in ~0h45ae5db1688fb109
2026-07-06 04:52@fashionnovainstagram490resolves in ~0hfa1c7ec11269ee5c
2026-07-06 08:52@redbullinstagram12,188resolves in ~0h2388a10fc7982335
2026-07-06 14:00@fashionnovainstagram477resolves in ~0hd866de42b3bbb1f0
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.