Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6241)
1981 / 6241within 20% of actual (32%)
7881open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 34% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 14168

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-21@glossierinstagram1,4621,65412%✓ within band06bf95f392515dc9
2026-09-21@newegginstagram243124%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2a6174fcd8699795
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram42751016%✓ within band4e55a9ed83a2e706
2026-09-21@crumblinstagram11,94717,03730%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8398e581a79d7d84
2026-09-21@rarebeautyinstagram5,8644,54329%✗ miss — over-called — early decay292abb064e7f09b3
2026-09-21@mycurlproductsinstagram103220%✗ miss — over-called — early decay241f8b5d9611b348
2026-09-21@ediktedinstagram19563869%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdc52d4dcfd611ed3
2026-09-21@huluinstagram99,017219,96555%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdfe94f43f8c7e7f8
2026-09-21@joyluxincinstagram656399%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9a385588ef61f525
2026-09-21@jenisicecreamsinstagram9479874%✓ within band23ca3dd3292c5aeb
2026-09-21@skimsinstagram11,81010,8309%✓ within bande09bd3751fbc7eeb
2026-09-21@luvmehairinstagram1141194%✓ within banda28e6d2040a1176f
2026-09-21@kyliecosmeticsinstagram115,502198,38042%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2137838343a33339
2026-09-21@nordstrominstagram8111,12328%✗ miss — under-called — late burst75810cd342b2090c
2026-09-21@oreoinstagram1,6401,91714%✓ within band5f405b5ab8c1bcab
2026-09-21@crumbltiktok50,87360,70016%✓ within band8334fa2ff72adee1
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram49,37594,67648%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd350be956e284fa5
2026-09-21@monsterjaminstagram34724840%✗ miss — over-called — early decay758b9be8382ce6f3
2026-09-21@mythicalinstagram4,4525,14614%✓ within bandf7659635e99168f9
2026-09-21@stevemaddeninstagram35653233%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc6b37e562ad06dfc
2026-09-21@glowrecipeinstagram24229718%✓ within bandaa3303ce2a20068d
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram52833259%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya7dcc26ed4ef28a8
2026-09-21@revolveinstagram51964319%✓ within banda06874159a3b1782
2026-09-21@huluinstagram7968405%✓ within band3d8c1a22780fccc2
2026-09-21@humnutritioninstagram4311463%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3476b91169d176d6
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram121,50169,72474%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya99db5ab00543298
2026-09-21@lucidmotorsinstagram3954104%✓ within bande98bb9f66e188593
2026-09-21@madewellinstagram87076614%✓ within band2b0315c8c3afe7dd
2026-09-21@wendysinstagram1851987%✓ within bandefa9d49e229be69e
2026-09-21@rhodeinstagram25,89123,8169%✓ within band90b726cb8c70c90e
2026-09-21@ritualinstagram2,9241,258132%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1ab0b69657a56878
2026-09-21@madhappyinstagram4,4975,04411%✓ within band65196a6ef4096ef9
2026-09-21@savagexfentyinstagram1,6611,5308%✓ within band36e0e752c6319f64
2026-09-21@liquidivinstagram14717717%✓ within bandafad61c2dec7778c
2026-09-21@summerfridaysinstagram1,6192,39832%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcfa5eb954e6f6c0e
2026-09-21@innisfreeusainstagram4495,89592%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3e9e3c53281b9a5f
2026-09-21@drinkolipopinstagram63555015%✓ within band53e56b2363e850aa
2026-09-21@innisfreeusatiktok4953,55986%✗ miss — under-called — late burst17ac019f13fec1ba
2026-09-21@theordinaryinstagram6786435%✓ within band7db1bc69a5c31eaa
2026-09-21@ogx_beautyinstagram916051%✗ miss — over-called — early decay64fb78bb6dc5255a
2026-09-21@ritualtiktok20,09934,20041%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta65c328938a40961
2026-09-21@neomwellbeingtiktok68436985%✗ miss — over-called — early decay656a43fa0bf05335
2026-09-21@mindymaesmarkettiktok15429147%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd2f6e99a8a20148c
2026-09-21@humnutritiontiktok26719934%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0d5e4aea676edf0e
2026-09-21@louisvuittoninstagram12,74613,9058%✓ within bandf06cf73ab381b209
2026-09-21@lysbeautyofficialinstagram92912%✓ within bandd4283f36a66aa136
2026-09-21@neomwellbeinginstagram94869%✓ within band4f3e423740501472
2026-09-21@necessairetiktok11031265%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8f181ea3498d6e27
2026-09-21@littlespoontiktok1,756441298%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye37cf68f9e571197
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram65,89357,26015%✓ within band42ec5781ebe9a077
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram1,1701,0749%✓ within band22e3b445c1c58ea2
2026-09-21@skimsinstagram4,8314,6484%✓ within band6ae7893ff3889f78
2026-09-21@nudestixtiktok1,9981,35847%✗ miss — over-called — early decay868cb05dc8b46a24
2026-09-21@huluinstagram41,84460,65631%✗ miss — under-called — late burst395be67c053af4e7
2026-09-21@josiemarantiktok1,13288228%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb9883e49e643e046
2026-09-21@jockofueltiktok1,539700120%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye76dd519e1b28995
2026-09-21@fentybeautyinstagram5,5524,42226%✗ miss — over-called — early decayff00827fcbdaeb2d
2026-09-21@jockofuelinstagram8147824%✓ within band8e4c4637603d3611
2026-09-21@maseratiinstagram22,11130,25527%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfbcb302688d4b9ad
2026-09-21@redbullinstagram16,46531,46848%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb7f75dc817ba8ae8
2026-09-21@nudestixinstagram10321452%✗ miss — under-called — late burste7552109d4cf93dd
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram9,4147,17831%✗ miss — over-called — early decayda57b4d43b9325b5
2026-09-21@charlottetilburyinstagram4,42013,68268%✗ miss — under-called — late burst03d46fd9be8c88ff
2026-09-21@doritosinstagram46361324%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8c64e115f1f22797
2026-09-21@lofttiktok37846118%✓ within band86dde6c797c1dd03
2026-09-21@macrobabyinstagram17,12013,44327%✗ miss — over-called — early decay477fd38850547edf
2026-09-21@laloinstagram38359%✓ within band706c9b06896cab10
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram63,06271,91212%✓ within band2f02b8cf48c6c28d
2026-09-21@skimsinstagram4,6685,29412%✓ within band5083f3d92b470387
2026-09-21@loftinstagram21262466%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5f55291cf1f11b7a
2026-09-21@bandaidbrandinstagram94869%✓ within band101c0d64ea20c0a6
2026-09-21@mynufaceinstagram241926%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb408e067ed3ef102
2026-09-21@netflixinstagram8,47211,26625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e81560096aa3e66
2026-09-21@huupeofficialinstagram85841%✓ within band51baed02314d54a8
2026-09-21@longchampinstagram2,8493,37716%✓ within band503509408145e87c
2026-09-21@andotherstoriestiktok77698221%✗ miss — under-called — late burst66f3d83751f58f26
2026-09-21@maisonkitsunetiktok2,5121,71347%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb70407ea52422a63
2026-09-21@nailbootiktok17,9148,851102%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9ff99e3945f7acd7
2026-09-21@meshkiinstagram1,7531,7741%✓ within bandc8822883737173f9
2026-09-21@lolasaratogainstagram1061103%✓ within band7f742503799a6ce6
2026-09-21@maseratitiktok19,91911,90067%✗ miss — over-called — early decayeed374a6fce66ce6
2026-09-21@meshkiinstagram2,8632,10136%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycafd56ee41675b69
2026-09-21@redbullinstagram38,29733,24015%✓ within banda6247c7df7e5280b
2026-09-21@louisvuittoninstagram57,51962,1127%✓ within band474c97aad0d87433
2026-09-21@revolveinstagram77356537%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6837b5d4f48e4cf0
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram4,1164,72213%✓ within bandeacab8b8d5d9f95d
2026-09-21@princesspollyinstagram89277715%✓ within band08852b921cebef2f
2026-09-21@princesspollyinstagram41351219%✓ within band822b33f85ada08a3
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram45051212%✓ within bandca7bacfceb24c774
2026-09-21@revolveinstagram24632825%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d452eace7248b3a
2026-09-21@princesspollyinstagram1,0643,62671%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf9a7bf77910a934c
2026-09-21@mycurlproductsinstagram141719%✓ within band6273335798cb3438
2026-09-21@revolveinstagram1,7753,39848%✗ miss — under-called — late burst39beaf7da6b99184
2026-09-21@fashionnovainstagram31192566%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdaa6c29d75128c5b
2026-09-21@ediktedinstagram33143223%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaa89addd7e130da4
2026-09-21@alphaleteinstagram3563444%✓ within band61a1f5a1c2a3ae95
2026-09-21@cocacolatiktok3,339913,500100%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd315f689c6f5450b
2026-09-21@luvmehairtiktok1,420365,600100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7842f25a61923594
2026-09-21@impactmouthguardsinstagram2022,44892%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1230250e950da754
2026-09-21@mindymaesmarketinstagram363213%✓ within band8d05d6c30a74fdc2

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.