Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7285)
2418 / 7285within 20% of actual (33%)
8436open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15762

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-27@nyxcosmeticsinstagram54773526%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta6a1e8a3ecdfe25e
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram7292,50771%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbf76ae75f8efb4a7
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram2472326%✓ within band18d598ddbeb4bf9f
2026-09-27@crumblinstagram5,6187,44625%✗ miss — under-called — late burst977260997191b652
2026-09-27@ghostlifestyleinstagram6676782%✓ within banda81be031d7be45be
2026-09-27@rarebeautyinstagram5,7375,01414%✓ within bandd1e20eb6e824069b
2026-09-27@fentybeautyinstagram21,68526,13417%✓ within band6c118b7481ba1d8e
2026-09-27@gymsharkinstagram9,11313,18931%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4e682668f808450f
2026-09-27@chewyinstagram20124618%✓ within bande8050cb756ae81db
2026-09-27@maccosmeticsinstagram2,6534,37939%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdffd8d4d1ae0765f
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram28,03134,16518%✓ within band533dfa8bc7b1613b
2026-09-27@huluinstagram1,85410,87583%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfc6203109dfec5f5
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram16,32515,9143%✓ within band5a6adfca4b25e589
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram16514613%✓ within band16e8f7df6f28305d
2026-09-27@japanlainstagram14721832%✗ miss — under-called — late burst30ef3fda963d0269
2026-09-27@ipsyinstagram14810837%✗ miss — over-called — early decay170cced67263d1d1
2026-09-27@newegginstagram829716%✓ within bande382f5ac23252a83
2026-09-27@mysmileinstagram84806%✓ within band51d9c0b0f654192a
2026-09-27@chipotleinstagram24,62226,1356%✓ within band788cf83b4502861a
2026-09-27@itjustworkswellnessinstagram4956%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6ebde97c7ab87600
2026-09-27@michaelkorsinstagram1,5081,20026%✗ miss — over-called — early decay042b7be98a4ed616
2026-09-27@stevemaddeninstagram3654019%✓ within bandb3628fd1cd0b9130
2026-09-27@fentybeautyinstagram6602,46573%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2494558268eaa677
2026-09-27@naircareinstagram2,0651,88010%✓ within band4092996c9573b586
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram2772674%✓ within band4780afdbdc60f059
2026-09-27@glowrecipetiktok35,29839,50011%✓ within band16c9fd985830cae8
2026-09-27@ediktedinstagram28521831%✗ miss — over-called — early decay640b28835f929197
2026-09-27@joyluxincinstagram1,754768128%✗ miss — over-called — early decay341269e24b6ab217
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram26,95827,8043%✓ within band66d2fe0c4aae8495
2026-09-27@monsterjaminstagram2672507%✓ within band34048d5f3767f9a7
2026-09-27@nyxcosmeticsinstagram7887860%✓ within band8bfa66105e7013cc
2026-09-27@lysbeautyofficialinstagram435014%✓ within bandf99d7757f07de009
2026-09-27@huluinstagram1,5931,6031%✓ within band6933d2b084680bbe
2026-09-27@huluinstagram2,2445,45159%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta6ce5621537f063c
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram14,69329,97251%✗ miss — under-called — late burstde143d09fb357676
2026-09-27@makeupbymarioinstagram34,56533,8132%✓ within band1e7f6810872f26c2
2026-09-27@livetintedinstagram62587%✓ within bandb6a53af69b59bd94
2026-09-27@skimsinstagram2,3621,49458%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd3bb79e2c3c0ec32
2026-09-27@nyxcosmeticsinstagram7642,93374%✗ miss — under-called — late burst834c5aa3ac610e9a
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram4972,60581%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbb3602b9268d622b
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram25,76436,16329%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf3fcb33076217fde
2026-09-27@louisvuittoninstagram49,80658,68615%✓ within banddaa00c2b893e5f45
2026-09-27@madhappyinstagram5,3685,2902%✓ within bandb296d82726c5a25e
2026-09-27@savagexfentyinstagram8721,66148%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdd2c6df3086d707d
2026-09-27@rhodeinstagram32,28241,91523%✗ miss — under-called — late burste0177df143048146
2026-09-27@summerfridaysinstagram1,0951,0267%✓ within bandc833666ca7014572
2026-09-27@newegginstagram12767%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc9651dbfc40df1ac
2026-09-27@rarebeautyinstagram15,40914,1649%✓ within band2871e32ed5e1d979
2026-09-27@theordinaryinstagram3944186%✓ within band102182768454a95d
2026-09-27@maccosmeticsinstagram4,0354,1743%✓ within band0c786199eeedde5f
2026-09-27@mountaindewinstagram2,5961,98831%✗ miss — over-called — early decay55d431fbdbd597e3
2026-09-27@sephorainstagram4,5813,49431%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf9cd44157cefe749
2026-09-27@elfcosmeticsinstagram16,54614,35115%✓ within band7746615ce593666b
2026-09-27@mindymaesmarketinstagram705429%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2d26d2e9ada2613e
2026-09-27@lucidmotorsinstagram5885507%✓ within bandf283fc85c7debffc
2026-09-27@crumblinstagram5,7925,4386%✓ within band8ca355504b41b785
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram53291442%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3536aa3be0d3ac97
2026-09-27@wendysinstagram7,58011,09132%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9184725c09a09757
2026-09-27@huluinstagram3,5192,76827%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb52386147accabaf
2026-09-27@jockofuelinstagram2,5075,36653%✗ miss — under-called — late bursteb64bc9911d93a93
2026-09-27@casetifyinstagram46,43165,11229%✗ miss — under-called — late burste4e318b19b93cec5
2026-09-27@neomwellbeinginstagram1321274%✓ within band2d77043647cedeeb
2026-09-27@casetifytiktok26,02679,10067%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1d5ac5c0d410b6b3
2026-09-27@josiemarantiktok3,4573,09612%✓ within band7029299db36f8971
2026-09-27@mackweldontiktok54508%✓ within bandc5a1af2b46301253
2026-09-27@andotherstoriesinstagram2562483%✓ within bande8a9a0e0a1d9ae0a
2026-09-27@nzxtinstagram3,4243,5564%✓ within band09d3daaa3e546ce7
2026-09-27@redbullinstagram32,33276,19558%✗ miss — under-called — late burst53362ed3e02eb2a3
2026-09-27@neweracapinstagram1,02872143%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7440d9e5cfa456c3
2026-09-27@abercrombieinstagram3,4922,57536%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd7c79a8a907d5aeb
2026-09-27@aloyogainstagram1,7941,34334%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf965b4c10b2652b9
2026-09-27@nudestixinstagram705722%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4ff0064dc87c30d8
2026-09-27@maccosmeticsinstagram5,4724,90412%✓ within band0b291d75d5ef2cc0
2026-09-27@innisfreeusainstagram10413925%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdd7037355e1f2ac4
2026-09-27@milkmakeupinstagram29223524%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4b25303dd4b1299a
2026-09-27@nordstrominstagram4354442%✓ within band89be300bfc6c007b
2026-09-27@monsterjaminstagram61846433%✗ miss — over-called — early decay11a1efe423b87049
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram77,26075,6592%✓ within banda744590144622059
2026-09-27@littlespooninstagram3771,34772%✗ miss — under-called — late burst32fcd55f7ec5c80c
2026-09-27@nudestixtiktok1,086492121%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd958a0398053f7b5
2026-09-27@madewellinstagram2842724%✓ within bandd791c60b68bb4c99
2026-09-27@loftinstagram2,7352,47410%✓ within band6fc1f373383502e1
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram32,7951,012,97097%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd3310e2e944844ec
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram1,0951,77338%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdac499f8fdc4b4c6
2026-09-27@laloinstagram957920%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9058bf7d9f44e8a4
2026-09-27@sephorainstagram2,0522,2549%✓ within bande737cb03010ee677
2026-09-27@macrobabyinstagram2,1833,26633%✗ miss — under-called — late burst15e26b40039563eb
2026-09-27@huupeofficialinstagram1129913%✓ within band0f855e7867227f37
2026-09-27@maseratitiktok33,18021,90052%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6ba247e077469c66
2026-09-27@netflixinstagram131,886161,83018%✓ within bandde0b3a7966291070
2026-09-27@lolasaratogainstagram2752721%✓ within bandeab9ecec2e9012e8
2026-09-27@charlottetilburyinstagram6,4996,1755%✓ within band9abe3007b5ac7682
2026-09-27@louisvuittoninstagram10,43225,17959%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf8de0768c9382f43
2026-09-27@meshkiinstagram823404104%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye5e6a1197b6e536c
2026-09-27@freepeopleinstagram9851,70442%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65c1fc93e7174047
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram3673476%✓ within band0379ccbae0a87aab
2026-09-27@casetifyinstagram4,9364,9360%✓ within bande58511802bd16d57
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram1,5281,81516%✓ within bandd60997e04f8dad5a
2026-09-27@princesspollyinstagram6897589%✓ within band8c2df6b3e1a55717
2026-09-27@fashionnovainstagram30278161%✗ miss — under-called — late burst164444ef8089e19c

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.