Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7699)
2594 / 7699within 20% of actual (34%)
8686open bets resolving at 72h
176public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 16439

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-30@andotherstoriesinstagram29233513%✓ within bandd36551cddf1d1b92
2026-09-30@jimmychooinstagram4,6295,94022%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta11b54c7a38f0e6e
2026-09-30@louisvuittoninstagram7,2888,65016%✓ within band5cd24cf30bcadd87
2026-09-30@redbullinstagram23,75122,2687%✓ within band5530ca0cab45ad17
2026-09-30@meshkiinstagram1,0281,66538%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf50cf096dc6846be
2026-09-30@gymsharkinstagram11,40415,33126%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdff07de8133fcae5
2026-09-30@gymsharkinstagram59,52946,81827%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf08b3f4d1f572c2b
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram55685235%✗ miss — under-called — late burstff955fa5200464d0
2026-09-30@princesspollyinstagram25521817%✓ within band1718d1ad623f8d32
2026-09-30@impactmouthguardsinstagram92461%✗ miss — under-called — late burst015609434548286c
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram1,0686,60884%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbfb63efabc15362d
2026-09-30@ediktedinstagram15118318%✓ within band02efd53ba6a0fd24
2026-09-30@miadonnadiamondtiktok3183231%✓ within bandc2d3d90b377bccba
2026-09-30@manlybandstiktok29417667%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1dcf797c4b235acc
2026-09-30@mycurlproductsinstagram7618%✓ within bandc68a4d6736b063ed
2026-09-30@manlybandsinstagram384720%✓ within band3f5a81f80790ad13
2026-09-30@fashionnovainstagram27839730%✗ miss — under-called — late burste225300a7cbea5a9
2026-09-30@princesspollyinstagram7868366%✓ within banddd0630dc60d000f4
2026-09-30@nordstrominstagram2611,11176%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ff69e4b0b5fa570
2026-09-30@ediktedinstagram43895654%✗ miss — under-called — late burst783e25f806e098bb
2026-09-30@mindymaesmarketinstagram203745%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc568c3b9cf38bbbd
2026-09-30@mollyjewelryusinstagram21918,75399%✗ miss — under-called — late burst58c78ddb35b2a5f0
2026-09-29@macrobabyinstagram58637%✓ within band2f2f97064c8bc07c
2026-09-29@meshkiinstagram3293465%✓ within band3c6dfc04e35861e8
2026-09-29@johnscrazysocksinstagram1801725%✓ within bandb088d34c6b91fe94
2026-09-29@fashionnovainstagram8491,22130%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9d497cc34f8361bf
2026-09-29@princesspollyinstagram5651,02645%✗ miss — under-called — late burst67c83187fb6a1b09
2026-09-29@minetanbodyskintiktok22813174%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya3d36ec7316d27c6
2026-09-29@celsiusofficialtiktok495,877353,60040%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc33dfe2c948b9814
2026-09-29@netflixinstagram4,9455,94117%✓ within band438baeb5e4ec45c6
2026-09-29@jenisicecreamsinstagram1,07877539%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd5f0d6b92acc65e5
2026-09-29@ediktedinstagram32840619%✓ within band4d6242c6edc5f6cc
2026-09-29@loftinstagram43353018%✓ within banda4bd5f2eb914378a
2026-09-29@gilletteinstagram801,34094%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc2501c686d9908e5
2026-09-29@revolveinstagram28833514%✓ within band59a3d85cc56f46ad
2026-09-29@gymsharkinstagram13,74918,38925%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2afbd42da0483d4c
2026-09-29@hotmiamistylestiktok44235226%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaa73d6358f94dd49
2026-09-29@jeffreestarcosmeticstiktok1,3963,16056%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb20651e41f7e8b12
2026-09-29@japanlainstagram75839%✓ within banddb0c8fef8d5116e5
2026-09-29@kyliecosmeticsinstagram95,071174,84246%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6469364d55abb3e5
2026-09-29@revolveinstagram9811,10411%✓ within band186dde63b1ae6cfe
2026-09-29@sephorainstagram2,8542,37920%✓ within band52f8e317d6b4766b
2026-09-29@younglainstagram10,1129,8513%✓ within band9754bb4fecc2cdf9
2026-09-29@skincarebydrnassifinstagram16162%✓ within band7298749304863af1
2026-09-29@crumblinstagram7,1957,1620%✓ within band363aebb7427b21cf
2026-09-29@hotmiamistylesinstagram18861670%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd6ee2e2fc871f8e1
2026-09-29@marykayusinstagram22929021%✗ miss — under-called — late burst16fdeee01f1e910b
2026-09-29@manlybandsinstagram111630%✗ miss — under-called — late burst33a1fdcc8a98eaeb
2026-09-29@marykayustiktok1,2071,98739%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8c13125886b2c466
2026-09-29@fashionnovainstagram23778970%✗ miss — under-called — late burst34c2371355f399a2
2026-09-29@ogx_beautyinstagram18121215%✓ within band35fccdde6ce175a9
2026-09-29@nordstrominstagram25680768%✗ miss — under-called — late burst69a2325f78364d78
2026-09-29@japanlainstagram4810855%✗ miss — under-called — late burst682d33cee784bb49
2026-09-29@gfuelenergyinstagram4010562%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7dace1525261313d
2026-09-29@netflixinstagram9,81038,94975%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd68f25e97b1e3d2b
2026-09-29@myloralsinstagram112147%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd6b93d764d448d3f
2026-09-29@princesspollyinstagram1,3021,09819%✓ within band13ea84e2ece63219
2026-09-29@nzxtinstagram1,1121,51226%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb20fb24333f7d3bf
2026-09-29@nzxtinstagram36641812%✓ within band2a032e56f9816dd5
2026-09-29@nyxcosmeticsinstagram74894321%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8837e40cfaa73310
2026-09-29@crumblinstagram4,8913,97923%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycf4b871c858aa3b2
2026-09-29@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,0131,61737%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6e9eb37ebe177c93
2026-09-29@netflixinstagram94,776137,67831%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3aed8b563f858448
2026-09-29@fashionnovainstagram4311,82876%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3b452a6b1f41d40b
2026-09-29@sephorainstagram48,95737,59630%✗ miss — over-called — early decay40888ef3ec0c7bd5
2026-09-29@josiemaraninstagram34540515%✓ within band62dc51fb8117cd03
2026-09-29@jluxlabelinstagram8748562%✓ within bandb5a90c70c6c62658
2026-09-29@lovingtanofficialinstagram0495100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5c0722712809bff3
2026-09-29@doritosinstagram45533436%✗ miss — over-called — early decay116260f5fb8d9da1
2026-09-29@drunkelephantinstagram2112183%✓ within bandc79723d0ddf115f9
2026-09-29@maccosmeticsinstagram1,0491,16810%✓ within band948d696a1c19f0ac
2026-09-29@lysbeautyofficialinstagram10912815%✓ within band7cf96cb8a73e60d4
2026-09-29@abercrombieinstagram1,3481,04130%✗ miss — over-called — early decaycfaaac35e4171aa9
2026-09-29@garnierusainstagram647515%✓ within band6a095470561dc7b6
2026-09-29@michaelkorsinstagram2,1632,3729%✓ within band6b007ee32b5f2015
2026-09-29@rarebeautyinstagram21,80221,8300%✓ within band3cb29f93aeed23da
2026-09-29@revolveinstagram4,3519,23353%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc29c41ab6ffd8853
2026-09-29@luvmehairinstagram4,5264,1998%✓ within band8977bd71a9327af8
2026-09-29@eatmaxjerkytiktok1,052362191%✗ miss — over-called — early decay76616161813d37b7
2026-09-29@nyxcosmeticsinstagram9579651%✓ within band40a3851712c0caca
2026-09-29@fashionnovainstagram45765931%✗ miss — under-called — late burst07a74516c86f2b5d
2026-09-29@glowrecipeinstagram1,7082,22623%✗ miss — under-called — late burstceabc2e5c5f7c0f8
2026-09-29@chipotleinstagram26,92824,9018%✓ within band541a0ff2a7897e7d
2026-09-29@skimsinstagram1,5301,88519%✓ within band6753d037abaee392
2026-09-29@rhodeinstagram31,85928,79711%✓ within band46ad1c8f5c3f08ba
2026-09-29@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,2801,77028%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5d8b3cada30c4784
2026-09-29@rarebeautyinstagram18,99521,57912%✓ within band79acd4d46f27c6fe
2026-09-29@michaelkorstiktok4,1975,43923%✗ miss — under-called — late burst57621facf1d80623
2026-09-29@tower28beautyinstagram1,6273,03846%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7a2eeff54d42d6e9
2026-09-29@maccosmeticsinstagram1,1711,53924%✗ miss — under-called — late burst11e04f5f6e39cf44
2026-09-29@huluinstagram4,88629,65684%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8ce55d581f12b903
2026-09-29@michaelkorsinstagram3,3402,31144%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb9eecf64ce811902
2026-09-29@lululemoninstagram3,6244,75224%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0bc214788d0f60ff
2026-09-29@gilletteinstagram13910335%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc89c1cf4f2fbfb30
2026-09-29@netflixinstagram23,28758,18760%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8b6966c081829b02
2026-09-29@cleanandclearinstagram232014%✓ within band654b7cb26ae54a93
2026-09-29@theordinaryinstagram28142434%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf1c13114f62054d2
2026-09-29@revolveinstagram4551,25364%✗ miss — under-called — late burst670ae074363d18da
2026-09-29@joyluxincinstagram131,54999%✗ miss — under-called — late burst140c77f3b6caa9d3
2026-09-29@ediktedinstagram6,3815,8699%✓ within banddeb8073c9305677d

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.