Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=6908)
2258 / 6908within 20% of actual (33%)
8333open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 33% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 15289

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-25@ghostlifestyleinstagram91582810%✓ within band7a74ffeacb15be30
2026-09-25@crumblinstagram9,29644,83079%✗ miss — under-called — late burste5a12cc2f658d0e4
2026-09-25@duolingoinstagram73,911378,00880%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta7a0190c84bcddc2
2026-09-25@vuoriclothinginstagram8589257%✓ within band7aa9e7146920c81a
2026-09-25@newegginstagram253324%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0cd44b3c9c71f937
2026-09-25@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,0431,59735%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbc97f3cf8b6ce0a1
2026-09-25@huluinstagram21,76414,81347%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1decc9f20911bd5e
2026-09-25@huluinstagram18,46435,76548%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4585da1165f46f1
2026-09-25@maybellineinstagram4,0164,0010%✓ within band69e659ef74f74de0
2026-09-25@lululemoninstagram3,9292,77742%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7df463691914cd17
2026-09-25@jcatbeautyinstagram17188%✓ within bandddf1a286945aa486
2026-09-25@michaelkorsinstagram2,0642,2338%✓ within band542668d7d1fb684e
2026-09-25@frankiesbikinisinstagram3,6713,5164%✓ within band0705f53b3ade0e41
2026-09-25@themobbeautyinstagram425422%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8d37d0bcd2fcb94f
2026-09-25@neweggtiktok59537,20098%✗ miss — under-called — late burste20b5c87f461dabc
2026-09-25@mythicalinstagram49,45161,04819%✓ within band2f37aed430131173
2026-09-25@chewytiktok9401,74746%✗ miss — under-called — late burst42dbdd65fb26bd0e
2026-09-25@nyxcosmeticsinstagram53170825%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta7a49f869d0ffef4
2026-09-25@livetintedinstagram1351304%✓ within band1692786deb120893
2026-09-25@rarebeautyinstagram66,85571,0486%✓ within band376028ad63dbf0be
2026-09-25@neweracapinstagram7271,12736%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf43042c3de69504b
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram55,064117,44453%✗ miss — under-called — late burst566565253c290c28
2026-09-25@maccosmeticsinstagram1,1301,27411%✓ within bandb851526ba21a9711
2026-09-25@ipsyinstagram92920%✓ within band698613bba1d83420
2026-09-25@huluinstagram4512,52282%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2c0e1f3ef577df5f
2026-09-25@mindymaesmarketinstagram305242%✗ miss — under-called — late burstff587bf0449d8e85
2026-09-25@sephorainstagram14,84514,3803%✓ within band8ebce2cdc7d99aec
2026-09-25@nailbooinstagram13352156%✗ miss — over-called — early decay431fd6303e17a76c
2026-09-25@huluinstagram1,7283,85955%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd2d78955dc3284c2
2026-09-25@mollyjewelryusinstagram35928924%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf9a4b3dc0dd397b8
2026-09-25@glowrecipeinstagram7,30128,23774%✗ miss — under-called — late burst092c0ea462d0cc55
2026-09-25@nordstrominstagram3153024%✓ within band23d88e6c08112d06
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram5212458%✗ miss — under-called — late burst583703658621b718
2026-09-25@naircareinstagram33318%✓ within band71fe4dfeaa5548a8
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram2,6262,8919%✓ within banddf4ce0fbf55b433c
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram6866,67490%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0d70203dd6a3fd91
2026-09-25@athleticbrewingtiktok920229302%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybdb6ae7a13c26be6
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram46270134%✗ miss — under-called — late burst32a849fe7652fcdc
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram22,75630,86326%✗ miss — under-called — late burst77b60b9513cc51bb
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram1,9242,0707%✓ within band3f724799a047989f
2026-09-25@minetanbodyskintiktok24913979%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3d151572c413cb26
2026-09-25@nzxttiktok5,2013,41952%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya5b391b668a28c28
2026-09-25@lucidmotorsinstagram1,1821,0988%✓ within band6ca8e4942d871197
2026-09-25@drinkolipopinstagram3,3654,27421%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfedc447d6327df3f
2026-09-25@skimsinstagram2,6222,7163%✓ within band92eaf63aa9ce772a
2026-09-25@huluinstagram3,00412,34876%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4905d42f47bbb0b8
2026-09-25@stevemaddeninstagram5,8315,4746%✓ within band9b8def090ddb4c1c
2026-09-25@milkmakeupinstagram1,2971,63020%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1b8036d1a679b3ab
2026-09-25@jenisicecreamsinstagram2,5603,32823%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2f83d4a74a282a12
2026-09-25@andotherstoriesinstagram28634818%✓ within band665a151a3d6c9848
2026-09-25@moroccanoilinstagram1,4491,3805%✓ within banda6f735f751155b0c
2026-09-25@redbullinstagram54,976107,57349%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5489fb94720cf1b7
2026-09-25@nudestixinstagram45485%✓ within band9355a84d5a844822
2026-09-25@athleticbrewinginstagram25496174%✗ miss — under-called — late burst830836e5a592c8ae
2026-09-25@nordstrominstagram73591720%✓ within band28ca229d6f89b754
2026-09-25@redbullinstagram27,25446,02241%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc1030f4bf8186937
2026-09-25@osjoblottiktok13,28610,70024%✗ miss — over-called — early decay41f194f55f885555
2026-09-25@innisfreeusainstagram918211%✓ within band0b13ec2154bf40c7
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram20924113%✓ within bandd2dd3baa8ddb3bed
2026-09-25@louisvuittoninstagram9,39111,04815%✓ within band50b9c8d773e1ede5
2026-09-25@makeupbymarioinstagram17,67321,48018%✓ within band819aa3bdd900a33b
2026-09-25@andotherstoriesinstagram1651798%✓ within bandb1582c1da90a5803
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram42153722%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta24d8396a4959d0d
2026-09-25@longchampinstagram1,4861,31513%✓ within bandd8560eec12062c4e
2026-09-25@littlespooninstagram79456341%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1ff8625f74da06e5
2026-09-25@loftinstagram1,7032,17022%✗ miss — under-called — late burst97361486ec63cc97
2026-09-25@lolasaratogainstagram34325%✓ within bandf94016f4a339eada
2026-09-25@maccosmeticsinstagram1,1001,56030%✗ miss — under-called — late burstacad705fe9c971bd
2026-09-25@meshkiinstagram7,0394,94042%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd60e2b9649d6abf2
2026-09-25@huupeofficialinstagram76718%✓ within bande50940036b1a92ee
2026-09-25@maseratitiktok13,2538,46756%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9b3022e6a4a2c22d
2026-09-25@nzxtinstagram10,0198,89213%✓ within bandedae744d91666f7f
2026-09-25@andotherstoriestiktok47082143%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9eeb4411e0d6c7c2
2026-09-25@meshkiinstagram2,6133,66529%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3432a1aa8b9e81eb
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram29255347%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3f6b6be52f90ee80
2026-09-25@louisvuittoninstagram27,38527,8262%✓ within bandbd163f42f3a6ff12
2026-09-25@charlottetilburyinstagram7,4515,10746%✗ miss — over-called — early decay95fd6f74536e41e7
2026-09-25@redbullinstagram143,912164,71913%✓ within bandf6a7cc86d4c1c25c
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram8791,46940%✗ miss — under-called — late burst052ff3bcab5c04a2
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram2762791%✓ within band87b0c6ebb1be2e48
2026-09-25@netflixinstagram28,61335,12918%✓ within band8a3d17fea40c7c62
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram2,4642,80812%✓ within band3c5814e7526440eb
2026-09-25@ediktedinstagram47062325%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd3c557afbf29b47c
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram36068648%✗ miss — under-called — late burste51f4affad299064
2026-09-25@princesspollyinstagram1,1741,1344%✓ within band2b92abf3e7d4faaf
2026-09-25@revolveinstagram41878947%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7bededf89d364d39
2026-09-25@charlottetilburyinstagram2,5444,44543%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4ae33839e51cb9d2
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram91331%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8202f78277852cce
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram9729%✗ miss — over-called — early decaybf21424d67863c71
2026-09-25@mysmileinstagram7536%✗ miss — over-called — early decay416d38221f1fb2a6
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram2,8663,97128%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ec119143c67d70c
2026-09-25@doritostiktok2,8053,17012%✓ within bandb1385409d59bcef8
2026-09-25@nordstrominstagram25420325%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9fffebcf5ed72e55
2026-09-25@hulutiktok3,211247,40099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst393c7d324eee33a3
2026-09-25@mindymaesmarketinstagram144066%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3ab0d67d3e418320
2026-09-25@macrobabyinstagram162943%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ec84d53b2221555
2026-09-25@huluinstagram2312549%✓ within band9559996cea344d4b
2026-09-25@younglainstagram5,3285,6055%✓ within bande8e86df5cfab40d4
2026-09-25@fashionnovainstagram39493858%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9fbb83bf21e9143b
2026-09-25@monsterjaminstagram1,09488424%✗ miss — over-called — early decay14a1901786f3639a

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.