Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.94rank accuracy (Spearman, n=7920)
2688 / 7920within 20% of actual (34%)
8884open bets resolving at 72h
176public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 32% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 16869

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-10-01@fashionnovainstagram1,1621,46220%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf13476ea1d08a93c
2026-10-01@nyxcosmeticsinstagram2,1721,92913%✓ within band27229b3d045f6928
2026-10-01@japanlainstagram8825666%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfa40901715d59fb0
2026-10-01@japanlainstagram2702527%✓ within band3d532bd225a02111
2026-10-01@rarebeautyinstagram20,29232,55138%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9bb88f4f667913a7
2026-10-01@cleanandclearinstagram101842%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ad6811f36cfce96
2026-10-01@ogx_beautyinstagram41389%✓ within band7ed77d697372187b
2026-10-01@michaelkorsinstagram1,3731,10824%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5346cbfbc292818f
2026-10-01@lucidmotorsinstagram1,7861,6468%✓ within band1e3893362a410636
2026-10-01@netflixinstagram18,921143,98187%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1cda9e17553a6258
2026-10-01@ghostlifestyleinstagram1,6503,92158%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8566807e002bb822
2026-10-01@crumblinstagram10,6885,85083%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6844eeba7204917d
2026-10-01@drunkelephantinstagram31639720%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4c570696d169addb
2026-10-01@fentybeautyinstagram01,963100%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0274b421f5b46192
2026-10-01@oldspiceinstagram1301290%✓ within bande6bbc9ec116d4717
2026-10-01@mycurlproductsinstagram4285%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd70876bb3b4dc80e
2026-10-01@neomwellbeinginstagram9310310%✓ within bandeb08cb1d7103dea8
2026-10-01@fentybeautyinstagram7,33210,91333%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5578488034d4c3e1
2026-10-01@joyluxincinstagram1579298%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9a3d5d8359de0df0
2026-10-01@mynufaceinstagram314429%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd337e142bf68ffff
2026-10-01@summerfridaystiktok5,0893,36951%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5664ab05ae99c60a
2026-10-01@huluinstagram1,7728,48979%✗ miss — under-called — late burste6406cbbcbbfdd36
2026-10-01@marykayusinstagram54189339%✗ miss — under-called — late burst07de1016f91c81fb
2026-10-01@jcatbeautyinstagram4422102%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7f497db8cad2a0b2
2026-10-01@gilletteinstagram23227516%✓ within band7423e4e9f6cb38a8
2026-10-01@maccosmeticsinstagram1,2141,76231%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7e3b3db69e7f6095
2026-10-01@gymsharkinstagram4,2394,86413%✓ within band5f8cc56b09a4aa3f
2026-10-01@mynufacetiktok4415672%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7c72bdb59fc2c9d2
2026-10-01@josiemaraninstagram1461386%✓ within band5b13ddfe0c7a7bdf
2026-10-01@netflixinstagram16,13885,61181%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1b5b35053e42afd2
2026-10-01@lysbeautyofficialinstagram17132948%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6d4ff7f2338ed28b
2026-10-01@elfcosmeticsinstagram18,01839,90955%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a7720968eb60145
2026-10-01@fashionnovainstagram52061015%✓ within band1990256e053a1e97
2026-10-01@sephorainstagram4,5336,50230%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd9ae4044e796a68b
2026-10-01@impactmouthguardsinstagram1,35598837%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye1fc328e117b6f06
2026-10-01@lululemoninstagram82,86277,1038%✓ within band4b95d753037db5b9
2026-10-01@rhodeinstagram43,15654,59821%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9a3b9b9ecf66735a
2026-10-01@skimsinstagram17,27415,8979%✓ within band93810a98651d15d2
2026-10-01@monsterjaminstagram50541821%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya0921dbf040caa33
2026-10-01@summerfridaysinstagram1,3261,11519%✓ within bandd5e04de2fff9860a
2026-10-01@savagexfentyinstagram4684670%✓ within band7c1d476361f1bbdb
2026-10-01@theordinaryinstagram7741,14632%✗ miss — under-called — late burst381228782541ef4e
2026-10-01@chobaniinstagram55940538%✗ miss — over-called — early decay21e86ca2fb7a8b3c
2026-10-01@mindymaesmarketinstagram264946%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbfbf02b6fb0fda09
2026-10-01@chipotleinstagram25,14720,67622%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf07f2e65213d0348
2026-10-01@rarebeautyinstagram21,38322,2454%✓ within band2a0d6a1d7afc9b84
2026-10-01@glowrecipeinstagram96287710%✓ within band53f158c50f9d45bd
2026-10-01@frankiesbikinisinstagram3,2252,79316%✓ within band3ca60cb07204cb46
2026-10-01@revolveinstagram2102100%✓ within bandb0bb35d69b6714a2
2026-10-01@mountaindewinstagram2,3792,4724%✓ within banddca20ede6bba0815
2026-10-01@myloralsinstagram91852%✗ miss — under-called — late burstee42feb977440577
2026-10-01@huluinstagram17,85014,79321%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf13fa3151da88e4d
2026-10-01@necessairetiktok7236757%✓ within bandd26d1f19e88fde90
2026-10-01@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,9916,11267%✗ miss — under-called — late burstab04eca437317f19
2026-10-01@fashionnovainstagram8091,19232%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb0842ab40ceefaf4
2026-10-01@maccosmeticsinstagram1,6931,41819%✓ within band019ac93f3128f05e
2026-10-01@humnutritioninstagram284638%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8483111ab49114a0
2026-10-01@revolveinstagram4454108%✓ within band445ab9504ddfe44b
2026-10-01@netflixinstagram36,26966,63146%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta817b92cf5cca9c4
2026-10-01@impactmouthguardsinstagram614827%✗ miss — over-called — early decay6399899d1a26dc06
2026-10-01@ipsyinstagram3293547%✓ within band8efe46618b29cc60
2026-10-01@fentybeautyinstagram6,0065,8872%✓ within bandbb0fa146de3aff6a
2026-10-01@moroccanoiltiktok1,42599144%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2df901211ac74513
2026-10-01@abercrombieinstagram1,4381,25914%✓ within band8e39bcdf1d0b597c
2026-10-01@nurturelifetiktok22718920%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2796f9c056061b47
2026-10-01@huupeofficialinstagram916736%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb7c4da790fb39587
2026-10-01@redbullinstagram45,948106,37157%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2d4d2fba8aa1a0a8
2026-10-01@macrobabyinstagram91434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst94a3cd1104efeb82
2026-10-01@moroccanoilinstagram3273414%✓ within band43c13c7053780c92
2026-10-01@huluinstagram157,96697,90661%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4d741fdf2e850ecc
2026-10-01@themobbeautytiktok9558818%✓ within bandbeef9b270777a3ca
2026-10-01@jansportinstagram12216426%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6943b1cafbe5b91e
2026-10-01@laloinstagram8618701%✓ within band0087f051e1cba160
2026-10-01@nurturelifeinstagram35351%✓ within banda7f2149d4bfa0fab
2026-10-01@madewellinstagram1,7941,61111%✓ within bandf51a0bba4bfb34eb
2026-10-01@neweracapinstagram7631,18636%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9fb1dabf9a03f3e9
2026-10-01@monsterjaminstagram1,04593012%✓ within band67d0c39722f9f6d7
2026-10-01@longchampinstagram3,0922,8578%✓ within band9c848fa857f2aa3d
2026-10-01@starbucksinstagram14,60614,9712%✓ within bandbe0e9702bd3e4325
2026-10-01@freepeopleinstagram1,2091,02018%✓ within bandc2ba6fd837337048
2026-10-01@themobbeautyinstagram1308946%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5b4567222ad982f0
2026-10-01@alphaleteinstagram3,1743,3124%✓ within band1661eb3279499a51
2026-10-01@younglainstagram24,46725,8375%✓ within bande7258cf21ec57c92
2026-10-01@fashionnovainstagram21030731%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7eaaac55c8e90b20
2026-10-01@netflixinstagram41,93227,38153%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf31d33f28b14d0b3
2026-10-01@netflixinstagram70,926140,37850%✗ miss — under-called — late burst71ab18e9022b9ef4
2026-10-01@starbucksinstagram18,28550,58964%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc40d1367467ee1a0
2026-10-01@maccosmeticsinstagram4,0786,53038%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd17880c1dda4e6e7
2026-10-01@loftinstagram1,4201,3823%✓ within band9b14ab1f876520b2
2026-10-01@hotmiamistylesinstagram18127033%✗ miss — under-called — late burst47133cbd3733d062
2026-10-01@longchamptiktok3,4083,6707%✓ within band975023e717e8e21a
2026-10-01@luxurybazaartiktok62437168%✗ miss — over-called — early decayce815bec443dba7e
2026-10-01@mysmileinstagram12134%✓ within banded143581005cce8e
2026-10-01@meshkiinstagram1,8251,64411%✓ within band246db040e1f34886
2026-10-01@redbullinstagram144,928127,47314%✓ within bandb925a9a49bdc80d6
2026-10-01@charlottetilburyinstagram2,7643,21114%✓ within banda84f0363ee5065e5
2026-10-01@lolasaratogainstagram464014%✓ within band1e3e3a103b68307d
2026-10-01@louisvuittoninstagram9,69013,39828%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a5920a14aa30506
2026-10-01@wendystiktok8,409162,30095%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd6cd46c043dbf74e
2026-10-01@mycurlproductsinstagram151046%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydaac45fb2cad826a

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.