Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=116)
16 / 116within 20% of actual (14%)
113open bets resolving at 72h
26public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 59% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_heuristic_v1 · n_locked total: 229

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-07-15@fentybeautyinstagram7,20812,61943%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd1bd3947ca2df39f
2026-07-15@wendysinstagram20259466%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9597fe201e994c1d
2026-07-15@fentybeautyinstagram1,6443,19649%✗ miss — under-called — late burst94e457e3b853211e
2026-07-15@liquidivinstagram8723363%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb7846b7d0ebb26ce
2026-07-15@liquidivinstagram6542,45573%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta52cfe69aad0b606
2026-07-15@elfcosmeticsinstagram7053,61380%✗ miss — under-called — late burst816094241f28d2c3
2026-07-15@rarebeautyinstagram9,54836,85274%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta414751d00ee23a3
2026-07-15@fentybeautyinstagram4,31323,84682%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9a533cb41f742ed1
2026-07-15@wendysinstagram7302,95475%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5f6aab3d93ec2b8d
2026-07-15@chipotleinstagram8,91540,07178%✗ miss — under-called — late burst43b924ce13015739
2026-07-15@liquidivinstagram7921563%✗ miss — under-called — late burst994343893f541f81
2026-07-15@wendysinstagram3782,05182%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5b59828d5d0fd662
2026-07-15@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,4704,39767%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcdc66d36c18ef5f1
2026-07-15@wendysinstagram1,8865,84268%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta1c3f431d768e14a
2026-07-15@wendysinstagram1,6482,61137%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcbefd953380ebcd4
2026-07-11@lululemoninstagram8472,40665%✗ miss — under-called — late burst76f7f63096126954
2026-07-11@aloyogainstagram4142,47383%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7967027114110de4
2026-07-11@wendysinstagram60035370%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1de5096649b00e70
2026-07-11@younglainstagram4,4848,07544%✗ miss — under-called — late burst192d2b9016487f5a
2026-07-11@fentybeautyinstagram4,25316,23974%✗ miss — under-called — late burst69d840aeccb1f246
2026-07-10@elfcosmeticsinstagram9152,10757%✗ miss — under-called — late burst723f0d24e64331bc
2026-07-10@wendysinstagram44384548%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3080c466fc3cb307
2026-07-10@alphaleteinstagram25560158%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta1915e271fb5269b
2026-07-10@younglainstagram2,8015,05144%✗ miss — under-called — late burst69ead31fe6224dd4
2026-07-10@liquidivinstagram6617162%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65df23fd06cce741
2026-07-10@younglatiktok11,55745,30074%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3341990327dee17b
2026-07-10@glossierinstagram5771,17351%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta9c74b71311a2f3c
2026-07-10@fentybeautyinstagram1,3073,53463%✗ miss — under-called — late burst468151f9e0a7dae3
2026-07-10@drinkolipopinstagram7121,88962%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfaac0ff51ff4b0e5
2026-07-10@rarebeautyinstagram28,11670,74360%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6451e6ae990cc905
2026-07-10@oreoinstagram4631,06256%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3808e81bd86ddc16
2026-07-10@gatoradeinstagram12323046%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb0d096798c7debc9
2026-07-10@gymsharkinstagram11,49744,72174%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4a6a5f0b8c73527f
2026-07-10@gymsharktiktok60,739502,70088%✗ miss — under-called — late burst126526f393d3ac1c
2026-07-10@aloyogainstagram6022,30474%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5ea5afe00bbaad59
2026-07-10@fentybeautyinstagram4,64616,58572%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a5382e4359cdec9
2026-07-10@wendysinstagram5,6218,71136%✗ miss — under-called — late burst550b5ae6529343ca
2026-07-10@glossierinstagram17,72233,11946%✗ miss — under-called — late burst634792690bf3edd4
2026-07-10@skimstiktok10,00387,40089%✗ miss — under-called — late burst85513801f95ebe1d
2026-07-10@rarebeautytiktok11,23257,00080%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1b8ab46bb85804e7
2026-07-10@elfcosmeticsinstagram4161,02359%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc970f45425d60858
2026-07-10@vuoriclothinginstagram5,1468,13537%✗ miss — under-called — late burst698d2cbff5d0c900
2026-07-10@milkmakeupinstagram21361665%✗ miss — under-called — late burst71c5b80b89b41552
2026-07-10@gatoradeinstagram7811431%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0669a8b5d9e44edc
2026-07-10@rhodeinstagram13,70541,76867%✗ miss — under-called — late burst13d2a4cc5333b465
2026-07-10@younglainstagram3,55217,54680%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1eb8477fdb7d7b51
2026-07-10@rarebeautytiktok31,57499,70068%✗ miss — under-called — late burst14afa21b50dae2c4
2026-07-10@rarebeautytiktok11,96638,10069%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1e2a0240a8441606
2026-07-10@celsiusofficialtiktok76932,10098%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf51b4dbf7e0defa4
2026-07-10@rarebeautyinstagram15,94227,37642%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6b529867466dc927
2026-07-10@charlottetilburyinstagram98,680144,76332%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0f83e3609107fcd0
2026-07-10@drinklmntinstagram1,1821,49521%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3fc6101d5f14e281
2026-07-10@younglainstagram8,80427,41268%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3daea8d1092b3d84
2026-07-10@younglatiktok45,73837,30023%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd0e6d96c8d695fe9
2026-07-09@fentybeautyinstagram8,8397,53117%✓ within band352db3bdd268fe99
2026-07-09@younglainstagram25,35621,48118%✓ within band3d8a024baef32685
2026-07-09@wendysinstagram1,2561,1985%✓ within band3a1eb3f27febca26
2026-07-09@nikeinstagram2,123,0581,734,88722%✗ miss — over-called — early decay924df41a0a5c874e
2026-07-09@gatoradeinstagram1,6591,36222%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf6be4abd0cad7c65
2026-07-09@alphaleteinstagram2642496%✓ within bandf1da4b507de6a070
2026-07-09@younglatiktok28,73632,30011%✓ within bandfe05ba7465ce31e1
2026-07-09@vuoriclothinginstagram84750568%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye72b79ec0321a7a2
2026-07-09@drinkolipopinstagram73943869%✗ miss — over-called — early decay238056361ed397c9
2026-07-09@liquidivinstagram14510242%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9f3a3ecec1d4db97
2026-07-09@rarebeautyinstagram20,96869,29970%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcd1bb57ea4764f2e
2026-07-09@fentybeautyinstagram3,25810,85270%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf77dea4aeb9e85f2
2026-07-09@gymsharkinstagram89,22861,55645%✗ miss — over-called — early decay4bc59825644968e0
2026-07-09@aloyogainstagram2,3861,62547%✗ miss — over-called — early decay20688a9982faac99
2026-07-09@gymsharktiktok37,33875,00050%✗ miss — under-called — late burst89877ac3ba722db5
2026-07-09@rarebeautytiktok9,03255,20084%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcc96f01076fc86ee
2026-07-09@chipotleinstagram10,21529,38365%✗ miss — under-called — late burst54bb0fe40e3bf4ab
2026-07-09@glossierinstagram8442,15061%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e8b9b2785ffe410
2026-07-09@younglainstagram8324,43981%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5f31dce592dbb03a
2026-07-09@skimstiktok2,62532,30092%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd527203f454de70a
2026-07-09@younglatiktok17,13841,10058%✗ miss — under-called — late burst16bd75f28af6c266
2026-07-09@charlottetilburyinstagram2,35710,32677%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9bfd7abcf5ac3918
2026-07-09@elfcosmeticsinstagram7911,90858%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcc75031acc724bdf
2026-07-09@gatoradeinstagram8912629%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb26287a33dfd740c
2026-07-09@duolingoinstagram4,183221,61598%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta1b2e8ce2cf740e5
2026-07-09@rhodeinstagram20,78556,45063%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65be2e7126517c89
2026-07-09@rarebeautyinstagram9,73930,85668%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7806156bec7a87cb
2026-07-09@rarebeautytiktok6,35838,20083%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9aadb1f53bb67be6
2026-07-09@duolingotiktok53,9521,900,00097%✗ miss — under-called — late burst96fec442da9c631c
2026-07-09@rarebeautyinstagram7,36115,21952%✗ miss — under-called — late burst57e11fc30b5d98c0
2026-07-09@rarebeautytiktok6,05124,00075%✗ miss — under-called — late burstda1742e0b58b1607
2026-07-09@milkmakeupinstagram4881,08855%✗ miss — under-called — late burst161dea8df76ea152
2026-07-09@charlottetilburyinstagram1,3952,79750%✗ miss — under-called — late burste8745bd7238d8b8b
2026-07-08@drinkolipopinstagram13325147%✗ miss — under-called — late burst72807d2872737c43
2026-07-08@celsiusofficialinstagram8062,14262%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaa00369e33a5743d
2026-07-08@glossierinstagram2,1554,16948%✗ miss — under-called — late burstad9ae0360986a51b
2026-07-08@milkmakeupinstagram8119659%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb387f65a9648685b
2026-07-08@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,3973,66862%✗ miss — under-called — late burst944cbb031cea4bc8
2026-07-08@gatoradeinstagram17126936%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7874e8474933a916
2026-07-08@savagexfentyinstagram46683044%✗ miss — under-called — late burst969c9e3378a7126d
2026-07-08@rhodeinstagram23,80240,90842%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf6dec5ee166920fe
2026-07-08@rarebeautyinstagram39,283111,48565%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3c1bf6928c209041
2026-07-08@rarebeautytiktok13,27163,10079%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4c3d2b5a8b0e214d
2026-07-08@rarebeautytiktok34,118388,70091%✗ miss — under-called — late burst69d92feaf114a113
2026-07-08@celsiusofficialtiktok1,02826,20096%✗ miss — under-called — late burst93dadccb27f5d594
2026-07-08@gymsharkinstagram7,74319,38060%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7c4a1e7f51b68f65

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 17:10@rarebeautyinstagram43,299resolves in ~0h34ed4ec29da2db30
2026-07-05 21:53@skimsinstagram1,732resolves in ~0h760b3825df0a7f45
2026-07-06 01:52@younglainstagram1,459resolves in ~0hedfb22c881df24ec
2026-07-06 16:53@skimsinstagram1,834resolves in ~0hb57b6bdbf916649e
2026-07-07 16:52@skimsinstagram3,128resolves in ~0hadb4d6ff46a90f73
2026-07-08 10:59@charlottetilburyinstagram2,325resolves in ~0hdfd5a09e74371a1b
2026-07-08 14:01@drinklmntinstagram84resolves in ~0h6388b9199ef8925f
2026-07-08 21:24@elfcosmeticsinstagram5,080resolves in ~0hde5c76ea47dce957
2026-07-08 21:24@vuoriclothinginstagram1,181resolves in ~0h78cfa79139d3ca6f
2026-07-08 21:24@drinkolipopinstagram1,283resolves in ~0he1dad08da05264bb
2026-07-08 21:24@skimsinstagram11,074resolves in ~0h3e186d510619b6c0
2026-07-08 21:24@rhodeinstagram65,126resolves in ~0hd273cce9f4620bf5
2026-07-08 21:24@rarebeautyinstagram59,325resolves in ~0h4dd9411f361e105f
2026-07-08 21:24@duolingoinstagram14,642resolves in ~0h0d82b6e7300292f8
2026-07-08 21:51@gatoradeinstagram1,232resolves in ~0hccf0986bd2f61bde
2026-07-08 21:51@savagexfentyinstagram395resolves in ~0hd2b2ca79224afcc2
2026-07-08 21:51@charlottetilburyinstagram1,288resolves in ~0h7e0939a23db93455
2026-07-08 21:51@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,057resolves in ~0h06480c3b86159256
2026-07-08 21:51@wendysinstagram1,150resolves in ~0hdf010336de0fefdc
2026-07-08 21:51@gymsharkinstagram41,563resolves in ~0h07f11ee5f920134c
2026-07-08 21:51@milkmakeupinstagram572resolves in ~0hc088be09151000f7
2026-07-08 21:51@liquidivinstagram173resolves in ~0had00320eeecf6781
2026-07-08 21:51@celsiusofficialinstagram1,323resolves in ~0h7731fa70ceb82730
2026-07-08 21:51@duolingoinstagram7,655resolves in ~0h9a8b694af547320f
2026-07-08 21:51@alphaleteinstagram166resolves in ~0hb82e0c334fcdf3ed
2026-07-08 21:51@milkmakeupinstagram125resolves in ~0hcedf5e9bbff938ff
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.