Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5769)
1782 / 5769within 20% of actual (31%)
7826open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 35% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13650

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-19@revolveinstagram18126431%✗ miss — under-called — late burstacd80af662d164fc
2026-09-19@fentybeautyinstagram2,1537,43971%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5e7b62814d54691e
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram7942,96573%✗ miss — under-called — late burst53100864871b1bee
2026-09-19@ipsyinstagram56546023%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9bca31cc639a17de
2026-09-19@princesspollyinstagram34046928%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4acb5222e25d78a
2026-09-19@huluinstagram30,30765,56854%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta0b6fe0205b7a869
2026-09-19@innosuppsinstagram7201,66757%✗ miss — under-called — late burst26e8eb6ce25a258f
2026-09-19@mollyjewelryusinstagram9071,45938%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1918b5a6ac15f1f8
2026-09-19@sephorainstagram1,4172,30338%✗ miss — under-called — late burst912367cc447de886
2026-09-19@revolveinstagram1,5783,83459%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc1bc9963ea18111e
2026-09-19@jluxlabelinstagram16243463%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb9d6799c519ac0fb
2026-09-19@nordstrominstagram1,3081,16212%✓ within bandcb635da3a65127a2
2026-09-19@aloyogainstagram1,9642,56023%✗ miss — under-called — late burst915d66c863ed3fb3
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram1,5931,89116%✓ within band9f1800417b44a22a
2026-09-19@mysmileinstagram3645%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta81c4079924b55ef
2026-09-19@ediktedinstagram7871,42245%✗ miss — under-called — late burst71ced2aaef91f89b
2026-09-19@princesspollyinstagram6496372%✓ within bandc55af62e5c7b3781
2026-09-19@freepeopleinstagram8,0225,44147%✗ miss — over-called — early decayee8e710024ce657c
2026-09-19@alphaleteinstagram11913814%✓ within bandd0ee6bc7f2340c33
2026-09-19@nordstromtiktok1,5581,32917%✓ within band078fac9ef5b6c1b6
2026-09-19@mythicalinstagram6,7058,65422%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbe322e20857f11a4
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram3723935%✓ within band633354af8e3be797
2026-09-18@princesspollyinstagram20322710%✓ within band7b30eeac0d39c2c1
2026-09-18@shopmarissacollectionstiktok1,02457080%✗ miss — over-called — early decay5a155279f7627b09
2026-09-18@huluinstagram2308,30397%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcb87949da85cc481
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram2,8926,29254%✗ miss — under-called — late burst87fd5ccb81085ba4
2026-09-18@ipsyinstagram1,5771,32020%✓ within band707afe92656eccc5
2026-09-18@huupeofficialinstagram1289929%✗ miss — over-called — early decay72b91b2a66d2e050
2026-09-18@meshkiinstagram47970432%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcaa4c243b261a9be
2026-09-18@sephorainstagram2,0162,49519%✓ within bandafac965e73843a48
2026-09-18@madhappytiktok1,4931,20124%✗ miss — over-called — early decay0b2d163f71c3522e
2026-09-18@stevemaddeninstagram1841708%✓ within bandb49414428ea45c05
2026-09-18@gfuelenergyinstagram1281271%✓ within banddc54424a757f2bd7
2026-09-18@makeupbymarioinstagram6,2785,9885%✓ within bandd2ffc39c4143bbf5
2026-09-18@jansportinstagram453432%✗ miss — over-called — early decay840a4ad4cc0f46ea
2026-09-18@crumblinstagram6,3006,7026%✓ within band17f36f3d954ef819
2026-09-18@wendysinstagram1,2623,39463%✗ miss — under-called — late burst8aaa964ea957fca3
2026-09-18@josiemaraninstagram23433730%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd425f70c3c51cb55
2026-09-18@michaelkorsinstagram78493616%✓ within bande5eb0b3bb8e14c9e
2026-09-18@huluinstagram5,46969,15392%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf21b6c1e77a74665
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram5,8185,4377%✓ within band72fd9a109517a0e0
2026-09-18@manlybandsinstagram402844%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9dc4b54582ea3e4e
2026-09-18@josiemarantiktok1,54690970%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf9047bcb1ec2721c
2026-09-18@gfuelenergyinstagram3,0592,60018%✓ within band36cf71490518f34d
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram85,681105,15218%✓ within band9ed0212c03036ef3
2026-09-18@maccosmeticsinstagram10,69515,33730%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd15c554787511828
2026-09-18@ediktedinstagram6161,11044%✗ miss — under-called — late burst381da32364084ecc
2026-09-18@luvmehairinstagram4381,79076%✗ miss — under-called — late burst47de3b40390bebbe
2026-09-18@sephorainstagram5,8387,47922%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb128c2a46415af24
2026-09-18@nordstromtiktok1,65995274%✗ miss — over-called — early decay527c53d562a0ab17
2026-09-18@midinmodtiktok8711%✓ within band80b25233bab78bc6
2026-09-18@louisvuittoninstagram13,84318,61726%✗ miss — under-called — late burst84ab0e39f6ea757f
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram1,01592310%✓ within band7d07ab968234c32f
2026-09-18@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,7033,44822%✗ miss — under-called — late burst50931fed2f741941
2026-09-18@wendysinstagram9845,18281%✗ miss — under-called — late burst10cf7920a54c14d0
2026-09-18@huluinstagram2,83328,41990%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6587e8c802b55e58
2026-09-18@jluxlabelinstagram19815826%✗ miss — over-called — early decay76927c5fdcaba065
2026-09-18@innisfreeusainstagram1575,02297%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5886aa595ad2af4d
2026-09-18@mayorgacoffeeinstagram122040%✗ miss — under-called — late burst9796b78570a31475
2026-09-18@manlybandsinstagram71552%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3497630c2e6782b3
2026-09-18@mayorgacoffeetiktok31019261%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7886497d03b37032
2026-09-18@nordstrominstagram14720930%✗ miss — under-called — late burst928b90949f806890
2026-09-18@michaelkorsinstagram1,0721,51929%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc2f5b8a694173585
2026-09-18@lysbeautyofficialinstagram796620%✓ within bandb6a82224a047a5f0
2026-09-18@huluinstagram8821,16224%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2f8cc83bd205d4b0
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram19,63551,94262%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5949d4f4921e736d
2026-09-18@japanlainstagram26415966%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf8d6b39498e97f7f
2026-09-18@louisvuittoninstagram37,49142,36612%✓ within band22daa38324fa69dd
2026-09-18@jcatbeautyinstagram578936%✗ miss — under-called — late burst10e7e6dc6221e4fc
2026-09-18@humnutritioninstagram172325%✗ miss — under-called — late burstde2b429b80603133
2026-09-18@lucidmotorsinstagram18521313%✓ within bandcd3c3b732aa95505
2026-09-18@ipsyinstagram95564548%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2638bdf2189734f
2026-09-18@ghostlifestyleinstagram54481533%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1eefb68d291f8d86
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram1,2751,69325%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc648ad03b7dabbd1
2026-09-18@jenisicecreamsinstagram30537018%✓ within bandb2d80b4a23923a51
2026-09-18@skincarebydrnassifinstagram241741%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2b5b44b7ec462732
2026-09-18@liquidivinstagram786520%✗ miss — over-called — early decay600853ea786721d5
2026-09-18@theordinaryinstagram4304280%✓ within band6b46c38a331ba75b
2026-09-18@drunkelephantinstagram28832913%✓ within banddc634329cbb24948
2026-09-18@gfuelenergyinstagram21126019%✓ within band1161b64f616480ac
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram56,10255,5621%✓ within band1749a61fe8610162
2026-09-18@huluinstagram7,3645,72629%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf8dda4c8554602bb
2026-09-18@younglainstagram11,0839,17221%✗ miss — over-called — early decay2567bb7a7cc8beee
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram107,14463,01470%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a68fc7aaf7c974c
2026-09-18@savagexfentyinstagram1,6861,49413%✓ within bandd6e870ea9c56f8c8
2026-09-18@nurturelifeinstagram3710866%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcea5b8214ca2334f
2026-09-18@glossierinstagram1,9612,42019%✓ within band7333cee22ff67abc
2026-09-18@tower28beautytiktok4,3492,23495%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1b1eb2790b6b07fd
2026-09-18@nyxcosmeticsinstagram54072726%✗ miss — under-called — late burste6c9c443d1c0f880
2026-09-18@fashionnovainstagram8195,50385%✗ miss — under-called — late burst59aaf21dd718ebbd
2026-09-18@sephorainstagram2,3622,1888%✓ within band9b0f27c51fad3e3c
2026-09-18@revolveinstagram35045323%✗ miss — under-called — late burst524d7693aa4ee07f
2026-09-18@gymsharkinstagram41,37361,65633%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2a8c47f7e0825e34
2026-09-18@skimsinstagram1,6842,56434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst12b3d550c7681e79
2026-09-18@fentybeautyinstagram6,6516,1039%✓ within band3c01678ae3f356e3
2026-09-18@redbullinstagram12,38619,90338%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2f1ff3f37fe2c7e7
2026-09-18@summerfridaystiktok7,0564,12071%✗ miss — over-called — early decayf5f4bb60739ff288
2026-09-18@urbanoutfittersinstagram4482,24880%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0823bbc5660b7968
2026-09-18@netflixinstagram94,015228,79659%✗ miss — under-called — late burst0641c04c5af7390d
2026-09-18@drinkolipopinstagram1,5382,89447%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4ceaac48ccb99c7

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.