Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5549)
1696 / 5549within 20% of actual (31%)
7675open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 35% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13278

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-17@neutrogenatiktok31727117%✓ within band4d6a5bd7d41fd56c
2026-09-17@neutrogenatiktok24527912%✓ within band6ef3519783ab1882
2026-09-17@madhappytiktok2,256918146%✗ miss — over-called — early decay95375877b6ad4140
2026-09-17@celsiusofficialtiktok3,595450,20099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4cc43e4c30775595
2026-09-17@livetintedtiktok59830199%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3124780de7683eb4
2026-09-17@shopluluaveinstagram1421309%✓ within band16988c8e0d9aec58
2026-09-17@athleticbrewinginstagram17915813%✓ within bandad0d6eec3e24c17c
2026-09-17@eatmaxjerkyinstagram152335%✗ miss — under-called — late burst6643fad076a52d6e
2026-09-17@chipotleinstagram11,7615,643108%✗ miss — over-called — early decayeb5f442dfe0ced59
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram27,55441,82434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7995286948c59722
2026-09-17@elfcosmeticsinstagram8,67714,10838%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4f958713568c4cb
2026-09-17@jcatbeautyinstagram111212%✓ within band64998fb50740921f
2026-09-17@skimsinstagram5,1945,6268%✓ within band64c3aade792f046d
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram90353369%✗ miss — over-called — early decay952e0f035cc9f4a7
2026-09-17@ipsyinstagram1,5581,25524%✗ miss — over-called — early decayde459cb2514c344d
2026-09-17@charlottetilburyinstagram10,1998,98114%✓ within band2ad6fa96b963365b
2026-09-17@drunkelephantinstagram40328939%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc35c31fd792b9eef
2026-09-17@japanlainstagram40922483%✗ miss — over-called — early decay346274c72a550e93
2026-09-17@wendysinstagram8001,29238%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5492383460014973
2026-09-17@liquidivinstagram1248055%✗ miss — over-called — early decayb2a53e4f9fcae953
2026-09-17@huluinstagram2,36615,16084%✗ miss — under-called — late burste0b8a78f74b14dfa
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram11,71710,35713%✓ within band6a9b10a897a70f89
2026-09-17@huupeofficialinstagram1981904%✓ within bandefdbd6082df56a27
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram1259729%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye75723b69e5c7980
2026-09-17@itjustworkswellnessinstagram4855%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd5799be8ba1d18e8
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram2302373%✓ within band03820e2e3aa6b95a
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram1,0321,57835%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta663d6a521b5c8d5
2026-09-17@humnutritioninstagram354116%✓ within bandf872a5f57eb636aa
2026-09-17@midinmodinstagram17172%✓ within bandefae2af159261443
2026-09-17@mynufacetiktok14136,300100%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta88a1326d0527b12
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram70,256153,66854%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbf335ff7d2c59fe8
2026-09-17@marykayusinstagram48570831%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1e251c7d60eef529
2026-09-17@ediktedinstagram5621,12350%✗ miss — under-called — late burst06190014037790ff
2026-09-17@kyliecosmeticsinstagram23,01059,45161%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1a0021d3b649833a
2026-09-17@madewellinstagram32438416%✓ within band666e1ac7dcf383d2
2026-09-17@mindymaesmarketinstagram53530%✓ within bandc675abe4c9032c34
2026-09-17@monsterjaminstagram2,6931,80849%✗ miss — over-called — early decay03f0478a9944e9fe
2026-09-17@fentybeautyinstagram1,6951,35625%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya86efd84da17e0dd
2026-09-17@alphaleteinstagram55347816%✓ within band948e869414a546d3
2026-09-17@hotmiamistylesinstagram1048424%✗ miss — over-called — early decay744749e5ad18373c
2026-09-17@makeupbymarioinstagram9,23311,43219%✓ within bandc630f13b7360a795
2026-09-17@michaelkorsinstagram70993124%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4b0a872f5d950ae
2026-09-17@ipsyinstagram32038817%✓ within band50e351c383b2fc6d
2026-09-17@glossierinstagram2,9932,66012%✓ within bandbbf423693d3c7d28
2026-09-17@princesspollyinstagram30945332%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd60bfd1308644740
2026-09-17@johnscrazysocksinstagram745925%✗ miss — over-called — early decayde567bc4b469daa5
2026-09-17@revolveinstagram3343597%✓ within bandbb8d4467886b4a27
2026-09-17@naircaretiktok29919057%✗ miss — over-called — early decay60a475bf71706dc4
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram9771,40831%✗ miss — under-called — late burst511ab6cc3199507b
2026-09-17@loftinstagram41535816%✓ within band1f3dbcc12ad02bfc
2026-09-17@maybellineinstagram1,8422,74533%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd965fa2c15189d15
2026-09-17@manlybandsinstagram15026644%✗ miss — under-called — late burst24614611af57ffcb
2026-09-17@mayorgacoffeetiktok280118137%✗ miss — over-called — early decay15367271ba7eaa0f
2026-09-17@huluinstagram1,0241,14611%✓ within band12977fada3c9d78d
2026-09-17@sephorainstagram1,1601,1802%✓ within band251af89e5d1239d8
2026-09-17@wendystiktok5,68211,00048%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc84a42317c0d01ab
2026-09-17@innosuppsinstagram121414%✓ within band4020b4e8e80010ac
2026-09-17@ogx_beautyinstagram81899%✓ within band20b42bed8e236966
2026-09-17@josiemaraninstagram21318913%✓ within band9b503374abc2c8e1
2026-09-17@cleanandclearinstagram304635%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5f018a7e2eeb76d7
2026-09-17@ghostlifestyleinstagram4,1685,61526%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1cbf8e76d377ba50
2026-09-17@livetintedinstagram857513%✓ within band0409cff56700859e
2026-09-17@crumblinstagram23,32546,19650%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbb685e85ce9dacf2
2026-09-17@ediktedinstagram1,3751,4445%✓ within band0ce02d1c3478fd39
2026-09-17@summerfridaysinstagram11,0799,51116%✓ within band30e8004908e9c2a0
2026-09-17@celsiusofficialinstagram4,8448,42042%✗ miss — under-called — late burst38dfa63a80889f1e
2026-09-17@drinkolipopinstagram1,06088819%✓ within band560e512fe9582595
2026-09-17@glowrecipetiktok9,89714,20030%✗ miss — under-called — late burst52128b83fe315976
2026-09-17@milkmakeuptiktok4,430882402%✗ miss — over-called — early decay230f04cabc1994d8
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram30,98125,26423%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3e135cbf691e9f76
2026-09-17@netflixinstagram229,52375,604204%✗ miss — over-called — early decayc4e4e9d3137eb73e
2026-09-17@japanlainstagram22214454%✗ miss — over-called — early decayddb4bf3608a6b445
2026-09-17@michaelkorsinstagram1,8981,9915%✓ within banda78b149040370f82
2026-09-17@mythicalinstagram5,9906,92714%✓ within bandad17142edb6b5482
2026-09-17@alphaleteinstagram66596231%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5556733ed66001ca
2026-09-17@mycurlproductsinstagram11927%✗ miss — over-called — early decay3a385c9c2f49ec2d
2026-09-17@ipsyinstagram47269732%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7223351b257a1fa6
2026-09-17@newegginstagram252025%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfb51be313cc62d3c
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram1,9092,80332%✗ miss — under-called — late burst5512a29ae5c2a7f3
2026-09-17@macrobabyinstagram23117631%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye8c89d628278cefd
2026-09-17@jenisicecreamsinstagram1,3171,48311%✓ within bande78a506ab3d9fecd
2026-09-17@manlybandsinstagram302331%✗ miss — over-called — early decaydd61c06c8e07a672
2026-09-17@duolingoinstagram19,36125,77125%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc7ef40596995d4a6
2026-09-17@younglainstagram12,9077,47573%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9cbcc539b8de4edf
2026-09-17@joyluxincinstagram1883898%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4b06b803830f16a9
2026-09-17@nordstrominstagram6004,67787%✗ miss — under-called — late burst797cc11ddb4d69b0
2026-09-17@nurturelifeinstagram39369%✓ within bandf9a4ce1c7c111f7e
2026-09-17@michaelkorsinstagram3,8933,20122%✗ miss — over-called — early decaya51b6e15820a5f72
2026-09-17@minetanbodyskintiktok15911,10099%✗ miss — under-called — late burst35fa41e53daca0c0
2026-09-17@johnfriedausinstagram17171%✓ within bandf1455327fa2dedd2
2026-09-17@mynufaceinstagram142028%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf4ac4e7ca8bcf912
2026-09-17@tower28beautyinstagram6066131%✓ within band72618b4b195d1429
2026-09-17@nudestixinstagram96971%✓ within band184287615a924d22
2026-09-17@loomwellinstagram5826348%✓ within bandd85e05c710633bd5
2026-09-17@glowrecipeinstagram9318687%✓ within band3fd049a9811adc15
2026-09-17@elfcosmeticsinstagram1,9011,36439%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye6151cc105d60a75
2026-09-17@fashionnovainstagram43260629%✗ miss — under-called — late burstfeb7054ca5a3e72a
2026-09-17@rhodeinstagram130,542152,22314%✓ within band303cdb5ef13e7bdb
2026-09-17@rarebeautyinstagram16,24313,23723%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9c671bf4b1ccbf4c
2026-09-17@vuoriclothinginstagram5474,76088%✗ miss — under-called — late burst3455c9915591acf8

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.