Every prediction locked before the outcome. Misses shown.

Forward-resolved engagement forecasts on public brand posts — cryptographically pre-committed, then graded against what actually happened. Not a backtest.

+0.93rank accuracy (Spearman, n=5928)
1847 / 5928within 20% of actual (31%)
7865open bets resolving at 72h
175public brands tracked

Median magnitude error 34% (shown because we show everything) · rank accuracy = how well we order winners vs losers, the number a media decision rides on · model ev_growth_v3 · n_locked total: 13843

Evidence — 3-chart track record pack

Rolling Spearman rank accuracy as forward predictions accumulateEach point is the Spearman correlation between predicted and observed engagement ranks, computed over the trailing 30 resolved slips. n grows left to right.-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.020406080100nth resolved slip (n grows left to right)rolling Spearman ρ (trailing 30)+0.94Rank accuracy reaches +0.94 across 101 resolved predictionsEvery point is a pre-registered prediction; n grows left to right as slips resolve at 72 h.
Absolute percentage error distribution: hits (≤20%) vs missesHistogram of absolute percentage error for 101 resolved predictions. Green bars = within 20% (hits). Red bars = outside 20% (misses). Median absolute error = 58%.0481216205118513142111760%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%≥100%absolute % error (|predicted − actual| / actual)resolved predictionsmedian error = 58%16/101 predictions within 20% (hit rate 16%) — median error 58%within 20% (16 hits)outside 20% (85 misses — fully shown)n = 101 resolved slips; misses rendered at full height — nothing hidden.
Model vs LLM creative ranking accuracy: model picks the winner 100% of the timeWithin-account bake-off on 2 brands with prior history (with-data condition). Model arm: account-conditional velocity score. LLM arm: creative text heuristic. n=2 accounts; cold-start condition not yet tested.+0.00+0.25+0.50+0.75+1.00+0.96Model+0.51LLMmean Spearman ρ0%25%50%75%100%100%Model0%LLMpicked-best rateRank accuracy (Spearman ρ)Picked the actual best creativeModel picks the winning creative 100% of the time when account data existsWithin-account only (account level cancelled by design). With-data condition: n=2 accounts with ≥15 prior posts. Cold-start condition: not yet tested — insufficient resolved data.

Resolved — hits AND misses

resolvedbrandplatformpredicted actualerrorverdictslip hash
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram40654526%✗ miss — under-called — late burstbe0d710c9355cbd0
2026-09-19@skimsinstagram2,7823,40718%✓ within band2edd9a87b17351d0
2026-09-19@crumblinstagram8,6707,34918%✓ within bande4f827c829730746
2026-09-19@nordstrominstagram30555345%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd416b39daa681dcb
2026-09-19@sephorainstagram22,508170,04287%✗ miss — under-called — late burst25428cb6e09807eb
2026-09-19@humnutritioninstagram152949%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc45f08500caa3bcf
2026-09-19@ediktedinstagram2,6482,4677%✓ within band16ca6b91a55e1b1f
2026-09-19@jansportinstagram8413236%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcb4d72c1454ce4d4
2026-09-19@innosuppsinstagram152026%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7ff0789e4fa26263
2026-09-19@neutrogenainstagram57936957%✗ miss — over-called — early decay64e7b44a40b76657
2026-09-19@littlespooninstagram1198246%✗ miss — over-called — early decaye8de2a30a5b12113
2026-09-19@themobbeautyinstagram16913823%✗ miss — over-called — early decayaf1a38a181792085
2026-09-19@skincarebydrnassifinstagram3915163%✗ miss — over-called — early decay04e66db1844b1d1b
2026-09-19@oldspiceinstagram18223422%✗ miss — under-called — late burst86a67da0259b7c43
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram3971,01961%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4445d773cb08a040
2026-09-19@josiemaraninstagram25622912%✓ within bandd6a382b1fa287a82
2026-09-19@sephorainstagram4,2817,14240%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd51af1138c2009f0
2026-09-19@michaelkorsinstagram7991,97460%✗ miss — under-called — late burst65790aee532bc954
2026-09-19@loftinstagram17536051%✗ miss — under-called — late burst767668c3423905cf
2026-09-19@michaelkorstiktok2,6322,20819%✓ within bandc62c0474aa68a430
2026-09-19@huluinstagram2,0172,97832%✗ miss — under-called — late burst80a26dbc1ddffca2
2026-09-19@naircaretiktok45438817%✓ within banda96797102d4b2a4c
2026-09-19@chipotleinstagram14,68014,8071%✓ within band37a090c417dbd4d7
2026-09-19@liquidivinstagram14116716%✓ within banda5d03bb667a894c6
2026-09-19@cleanandclearinstagram50559%✓ within band0546dfbc5ef6176d
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram1,1081,41122%✗ miss — under-called — late burstd74ac37705aef8a8
2026-09-19@skimsinstagram2,3094,56349%✗ miss — under-called — late burstcf96d7501fae7db2
2026-09-19@rarebeautyinstagram9,4187,84720%✓ within bandae2a59642607c0cc
2026-09-19@jcatbeautyinstagram223027%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb4c46bef5a775d1e
2026-09-19@elfcosmeticsinstagram2,5742,87811%✓ within band4a7e972a6ba78327
2026-09-19@nelliesfreerangeinstagram13145%✓ within bandd9771b4c3a99df06
2026-09-19@shopluluaveinstagram5312858%✗ miss — under-called — late burst32813b66aeba250a
2026-09-19@fentybeautyinstagram8,51218,56154%✗ miss — under-called — late burstc974ecd00b3ef135
2026-09-19@johnscrazysocksinstagram376947%✗ miss — under-called — late burst87cff957e81e83bd
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram11,96720,31041%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4b50e8c67b6eceb0
2026-09-19@revolveinstagram1,4481,3378%✓ within band54e2b8adb007c08f
2026-09-19@jenisicecreamsinstagram1,0591,0812%✓ within band75915b36ecbcc336
2026-09-19@princesspollyinstagram31136114%✓ within band196a37ba59e4252b
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram56047219%✓ within bandacd574a5b331b34c
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram8969263%✓ within band6bb06f744aa400e8
2026-09-19@fashionnovainstagram29853744%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4b61d8fc7d3c43ba
2026-09-19@eatmaxjerkyinstagram204050%✗ miss — under-called — late burst39d28e34713087e7
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram112,814119,3586%✓ within band16affde892d17b47
2026-09-19@makeupbymarioinstagram1,7822,01512%✓ within band1f90f20df4ee2601
2026-09-19@huluinstagram129,817147,13312%✓ within band680169a95ea45af5
2026-09-19@revolveinstagram3443461%✓ within band79fa57314a684929
2026-09-19@gfuelenergyinstagram28325113%✓ within banda6f09e09a2a39f94
2026-09-19@princesspollyinstagram20725720%✓ within band65f3c32b39cc7453
2026-09-19@monsterjaminstagram5215102%✓ within band0b2db9dcb654b65c
2026-09-19@mythicalinstagram5,6188,71836%✗ miss — under-called — late burste99a6ad13d1aa9c0
2026-09-19@drunkelephanttiktok2,2341,59440%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1f68eebf9a02b894
2026-09-19@jockofueltiktok1,7841,33434%✗ miss — over-called — early decay63715b2e9ee0e76b
2026-09-19@nudestixtiktok1,29078265%✗ miss — over-called — early decayfe94f943fb54c782
2026-09-19@nyxcosmeticsinstagram1,0341,87845%✗ miss — under-called — late burstaa1ffba9880222da
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram10,58865,37184%✗ miss — under-called — late burst05353cd5e25caa1f
2026-09-19@rhodeinstagram83,74684,0860%✓ within band4c1ea0a1168e833e
2026-09-19@nurturelifeinstagram344422%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf1c7aca497ef0a2a
2026-09-19@michaelkorsinstagram1,0239666%✓ within bandb21961e32a31bed4
2026-09-19@glossierinstagram5501,06348%✗ miss — under-called — late burstdb00142b771a3f37
2026-09-19@skimsinstagram6,8265,86316%✓ within banda9e4464d365e9f53
2026-09-19@gymsharkinstagram17,88820,12911%✓ within banda4485931c4e90974
2026-09-19@nurturelifetiktok1,292359260%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7df3834ba4371117
2026-09-19@itjustworkswellnesstiktok62132989%✗ miss — over-called — early decay679bcb7769011c15
2026-09-19@maccosmeticsinstagram8411,69650%✗ miss — under-called — late burst23588c435b7fdf82
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram13,57624,44044%✗ miss — under-called — late bursta56d0e83f4d2c976
2026-09-19@japanlainstagram32627021%✗ miss — over-called — early decay56837012311e85a1
2026-09-19@princesspollyinstagram50084140%✗ miss — under-called — late burst03b6ead3aa5aab59
2026-09-19@mountaindewinstagram3,3988,69261%✗ miss — under-called — late burst78202ff50ebc1839
2026-09-19@mccormickspicestiktok1,4639,56385%✗ miss — under-called — late burst29ad298ad871ec4c
2026-09-19@shopmarissacollectionstiktok39329732%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd24be9dffd00581d
2026-09-19@nyxcosmeticsinstagram96082416%✓ within bandc0fd04fe8443dbed
2026-09-19@huluinstagram5091,24959%✗ miss — under-called — late burst12d584695ff5a3d3
2026-09-19@ghostlifestyleinstagram8711,72650%✗ miss — under-called — late burst09f0d1e9823096ee
2026-09-19@drunkelephantinstagram26332018%✓ within band2ecf755350437c39
2026-09-19@ediktedinstagram52164720%✓ within bandb78212d306d6557a
2026-09-19@crumblinstagram4,5366,74633%✗ miss — under-called — late burst2901de775cec1a7d
2026-09-19@sephorainstagram7,71220,35362%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7e18549001e27b91
2026-09-19@kyliecosmeticsinstagram14,81341,26364%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7deb2964be24ea3c
2026-09-19@duolingoinstagram38,45132,75917%✓ within band9c7f2c5fff9322e8
2026-09-19@madhappyinstagram6,4354,96930%✗ miss — over-called — early decay31b02f00dca01899
2026-09-19@luvmehairinstagram201,08398%✗ miss — under-called — late burst76e804e445738013
2026-09-19@redbullinstagram241,316139,76073%✗ miss — over-called — early decay9002b8c621b4d151
2026-09-19@jimmychooinstagram2,3963,35028%✗ miss — under-called — late burst7f19a8e0064d86f7
2026-09-19@huluinstagram131,519144,1919%✓ within band398c3325b631be2d
2026-09-19@huluinstagram3,8188,87857%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb2c0ea7ac1f3aeff
2026-09-19@japanlainstagram10159383%✗ miss — under-called — late burst33e3044e095efd7c
2026-09-19@revolveinstagram93274825%✗ miss — over-called — early decayd33e2391b8a5f349
2026-09-19@tower28beautytiktok2,2983,30830%✗ miss — under-called — late burste0d66d8b44607597
2026-09-19@mollyjewelryusinstagram1561541%✓ within bandb9136e6464ae375f
2026-09-19@impactmouthguardsinstagram294230%✗ miss — under-called — late burst4b7c06dede4c4b7e
2026-09-19@urbanoutfittersinstagram1,1221,70434%✗ miss — under-called — late burst1042902664d80905
2026-09-19@maccosmeticsinstagram1,8525,75868%✗ miss — under-called — late burstb582f28fcf488dea
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram74,43780,6788%✓ within band2c5db9c5465ab085
2026-09-19@wendysinstagram12815819%✓ within band11e8618b45c8fb6e
2026-09-19@rarebeautyinstagram111,05781,73036%✗ miss — over-called — early decay7f870b577fdb29e2
2026-09-19@drinkolipopinstagram1,7991,21848%✗ miss — over-called — early decay1a6d66b9447f72e7
2026-09-19@nyxcosmeticsinstagram4223869%✓ within band0d099221c12f6841
2026-09-19@glowrecipeinstagram58682629%✗ miss — under-called — late burst33a7905905f7cf84
2026-09-19@netflixinstagram16,47722,98328%✗ miss — under-called — late burstf80299dd5c8e3379
2026-09-19@huluinstagram20,59729,88131%✗ miss — under-called — late burst643065a240d405a0

Open bets — locked, awaiting outcomes

locked (UTC)brandplatformpredicted final statusslip hash
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram9,028resolves in ~0hdbc2ab73db15a3fd
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram270resolves in ~0h7a993ff091fec46f
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram398resolves in ~0h27d038a8ce4a54ea
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram2,976resolves in ~0hee527bb7d7796808
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram303resolves in ~0h3a6bf54835bcf1d6
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram606resolves in ~0h32fbc0254d09c98e
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram319resolves in ~0heb289b75b0b37106
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram1,524resolves in ~0h74ff3837f15b9a04
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram338resolves in ~0hd8545283f03c90bb
2026-07-04 23:55@younglainstagram26,613resolves in ~0h7465b7aa7c0bd58a
2026-07-04 23:55@gfuelenergyinstagram112resolves in ~0hacf35ee90493782a
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram194resolves in ~0h051bdd09625cdb2a
2026-07-04 23:55@fashionnovainstagram567resolves in ~0h0338afb51357235c
2026-07-04 23:55@ediktedinstagram121resolves in ~0h98f7e64df8346573
2026-07-04 23:55@princesspollyinstagram31resolves in ~0h2d0e95377e767a2c
2026-07-04 23:55@duolingotiktok44,819resolves in ~0h101f62dec7dbb51f
2026-07-05 00:52@ediktedinstagram240resolves in ~0ha651faa9d437e86c
2026-07-05 02:12@fashionnovainstagram346resolves in ~0h9772447a8bca0243
2026-07-05 02:12@younglainstagram6,729resolves in ~0h703f8cc8b2367736
2026-07-05 03:12@fashionnovainstagram365resolves in ~0h7b29d4d99ba256eb
2026-07-05 03:12@ediktedinstagram210resolves in ~0h962d24f30cc4af21
2026-07-05 04:04@princesspollyinstagram265resolves in ~0h53a4e662e1135438
2026-07-05 05:16@fashionnovainstagram619resolves in ~0h65fabef12569d2bf
2026-07-05 09:09@redbullinstagram7,648resolves in ~0hc81108bf5e49c0e4
2026-07-05 13:54@fashionnovainstagram530resolves in ~0hf8be86ce806f0968
2026-07-05 13:54@glowrecipeinstagram322resolves in ~0h72b5e61c6d17f774
2026-07-05 15:21@redbullinstagram10,053resolves in ~0hc0b5eb5c227fcb74
2026-07-05 16:20@fashionnovainstagram987resolves in ~0hd751acf8b220b610
2026-07-05 17:10@fashionnovainstagram431resolves in ~0h7593d526c4046bcb
2026-07-05 17:10@glowrecipeinstagram770resolves in ~0h33bea4df285e784c
How to verify we can't cheat. Each prediction is appended to a hash-chained ledger at the moment it's made: every record carries a SHA-256 of its content plus the previous record's hash, so nothing can be edited or backdated without breaking the chain. The ledger file is periodically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps — an independent, third-party proof that these predictions existed before their outcomes. A miss can't be deleted; that's why you can see them above.